【国投期货】原油：供给担忧弱化，油价破位下行-250226（7页）.pdf

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1、68737883889398103108-3-1135791123/1124/124/324/524/724/924/1125/1布伦特C1-C7dated BFOE-WTI库欣EFS（ICE Brent Futures-Dubai Swaps)CFDDubaiC1-C3ICE布伦特（右）数据来源：wind，国投期货美元/桶-80-60-40-20020406080100010020030040050060070080090019/9 20/1 20/5 20/9 21/1 21/5 21/9 22/1 22/5 22/9 23/1 23/5 23/9 24/1 24/5 24/9 25/1S

2、C-布伦特价差（右）最优交割成本炼厂接货成本INE SC主力合约结算价期货仓单/50000数据来源：路透，国投期货元/桶010020030040050060070021/121/421/721/1022/122/422/722/1023/123/423/723/1024/124/424/724/10俄罗斯石油出口俄罗斯石油出口原油DPP&燃料油CPP原油出口年度均值石油出口年度均值数据来源：路透，国投期货万桶/天1602102603103604104605101/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1俄罗斯产原油周度装船量俄罗斯产原油周

3、度装船量20212022202320242025数据来源：路透，国投期货万桶/日0501001502002503003501/12/93/235/46/157/279/710/19 11/30伊朗原油周度装船量伊朗原油周度装船量20212022202320242025数据来源：路透，国投期货万桶/日0204060801001201401601801/1 1/19 2/9 3/2 3/234/13 5/4 5/256/15 7/6 7/278/17 9/7 9/28 10/19 11/9 11/30 12/21俄罗斯燃料油周度装船量俄罗斯燃料油周度装船量20212022202320242025数

4、据来源：路透，国投期货万桶/日-30-25-20-15-10-50-4-3-2-1012345623/9 23/1023/1123/12 24/1 24/2 24/3 24/4 24/5 24/6 24/7 24/8 24/9 24/1024/1124/12 25/1 25/2美国美国&中东现货升贴水中东现货升贴水HLS EmpireLLSMarsWTSWTI米兰德DSW阿曼加拿大WCS数据来源：路透，国投期货美元/桶7000007500008000008500009000009500001/52/53/54/55/56/57/58/59/5 10/5 11/5 12/5原油陆上商业库存原油陆

5、上商业库存202020212022202320242025数据来源：wind，彭博，国投期货1000桶17000001800000190000020000002100000220000023000001/52/5 3/54/55/56/57/58/59/5 10/5 11/5 12/5原油陆上原油陆上&浮仓浮仓&在途库存在途库存202020212022202320242025数据来源：wind，彭博，国投期货1000桶-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.038.338.939.439.940.441.041.542.042.543.143.644.12024Q12024Q22024Q32024Q42025Q12025Q22025Q32025Q4IEAEIAOPECIEA&EIA均值OPEC+原油产量（预期值）OPEC+原油产量（IEA&EIA均值）供需缺口（预期值）供需缺口（IEA&EIA均值）数据来源：IEA/DOE/OPEC，国投期货百万桶/天