【招银国际】China Economy: In a mild reflation-250210（7页）.pdf

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1、 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG:RESP CMBR OR http:/.hk 1 MN 10 Feb 2025 CMB International Global Markets|Macro Research|Economic Perspectives China Economy In a mild reflation Jan CPI rebounded thanks to the Chinese New Year(C

2、NY)holiday effect and robust service consumption.Food prices modestly increased while core CPI growth sustained its recovery thanks to the surging airfare,tourism and movie ticket prices during the CNY holiday.PPI further dropped MoM dragged by coal and ferrous metals prices as domestic property con

3、struction and global manufacturing activity remained weak.We expect Chinas CPI and PPI to recover from 0.2%and-2.2%in 2024 to 0.6%and-0.3%in 2025.Trumps policy may add downside pressure on Chinas PPI.However,China may see a mild reflation in 2025 as the continued improvement in housing and durables

4、sales in the recent two quarters indicates a probable broad recovery in consumer demand in the next several months.In response to the Trump tariff,China might launch some countermeasures.The timing of Chinas rate cut may be brought forward from the second half to the first half of the year.CPI rebou

5、nded during the CNY but showed weaker seasonality.Chinas CPI YoY growth rebounded to 0.5%in Jan from 0.1%in Dec,in line with market expectation.In sequential terms,CPI bounced up to 0.7%in Jan from 0%in Dec,weaker than previous CNY seasonality at 1%.Food price rose to 1.3%MoM in Jan after dropping 0

6、.6%in Dec,but weaker than previous CNY seasonality at 2.5%during 2022-2024.Pork prices moderately rose 1%MoM in Jan,but it may remain muted as inventories of breeding sows and live hogs stay elevated.Grain and vegetable CPI saw-0.1%and 5.9%growth in Jan compared to 0%to-2.4%in Dec.High-frequency dat