阿拉伯地区钢铁市场展望.pdf

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1、CLASSIFICATION C1-INTERNALSteel Market Outlook in theArab RegionSteel Market Outlook in the Arab RegionGeorge MattaHead of AISU Economic Committee Doha-Qatar14 October Economic Overview of the Arab Region2MENA Growth Slows Amid Regional Conflicts,Oil Cuts,and High Debt Economic growth in the Middle

2、East surged to 5.8%in 2022 butdropped to3.0%in 2023,driven by oil production cuts,disruptions in shipping,and ongoing conflicts in Gaza.Growth is projected to recover to 2.8%in 2024 and 4 5.%by2025 as these pressures ease.However,the potential lastingeconomic effects of armed conflict are an additio

3、nal challenge forthe region.That conflict not only causes lasting human and socialcosts but can also lead to large and persistent output losses.Over the medium term,growth is expected to remain relatively stable among oil importers,supported by strongdomestic demand,while plateauing hydrocarbon prod

4、uction is projected to weigh on growth in oil exporters.Source:World Bank3 GCC7.1%2.5%2.8%4.7%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%202220232024e2025eEconomic growth(%)18192021202220232024e2025e19.019.619.820.8Crude steel production16182022202220232024e2025e17.917.718.118.719.618.919.720.4Finished steel Production an

5、d consumption ConsumptionProductionEconomic Overview The Gulf economies slowed from 7.1%growth in 2022 to 2.5%in2023,mainly due to reduced oil production,impacting governmentrevenues and economic activity.The Gulf economies are expected to recover to 2.8%in 2024 and growto 4.7%in 2025,driven by high

6、er oil output,infrastructure projects,and diversification into technology,tourism and manufacturing.Steel Overview The increase in crude steel production from 19.6 to 19.8 million tonsin 2024 is driven by economic growth,and continued infrastructureprojects,particularly in SaudiArabia and the UAE.Fi