65岁以后的支出轨迹及其对退休经济准备的影响.pdf

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1、Spending Trajectories after Age 65 and Implications for Economic Preparation for RetirementMichael Hurd and Susann RohwedderSusann RohwedderJune 12,20249th International Pension Research Association Conference,ParisStarting Point for Financial Planning for Retirement:“How much will I/we need to fina

2、nce our spending?”Anticipate households spending level and patho Desired living standards at beginning of retirement yearso Anticipated onward trajectorySome things difficult to foresee,sources of uncertainty:o No longer able to work to compensate for shockso Increasing risk of health shocks,long-te

3、rm care(informal,formal?)o Elevated mortality risko Investment risko May lose ability to manage finances Obtain guidance from(i)economic theory,(ii)observed spending patterns.Consistent with each other?Spending Trajectory Implied by Lifecycle Model During retirement:Spending declines due to increasi

4、ng mortality risk Flatter path(smaller rate of decline conditional on age)if higher life expectancy;bequest motive Widowing:one-time drop as single survivor spends less than the married household Interaction with Health:If health good,spend greater share on goods&services complementary to health,les

5、s on health care;If health bad,reverse.On average,health declines with age spending composition changes with age,reduced enjoyment from spending.Data:Health and Retirement Study and CAMS Supplement Representative of U.S.population over age 50 Longitudinal:biennial,1992 onward Spending supplement:bie

6、nnial,2001 onward Household spending elicited in 39 categories Total spending=sum of 39 categories Total compares closely to Consumer Expenditure SurveyLarge Differentials in Spending Levels16,75534,98026,76047,41933,28862,11540,73177,798SINGLEMARRIEDMEDIAN ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD SPENDINGMEDIAN ANNUAL HOU