星展银行（DBS)：2025特朗普 “对等关税” 政策的经济与市场影响研究报告（英文版）（36页）.pdf

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1、03-04-2025Trump Tariffs:Economic and market implications Economics and Macro StrategyDBS Group Research2Trump Tariffs:Economic and market implications USTrumps“Liberation”DayUnlike any other day310%baseline tariff.These are across-the-board levies on all imports,effective April 5.“Discounted recipro

2、cal tariff”The higher rates are for nations the White House considers bad actors on trade.Japan:24%,EU:20%,China:54%(34%plus 20%already levied)The above are in lieu of the universal 10%tariff,effective April 9Canada and Mexico are excluded from the reciprocal tariff regime.They are still subject to

3、plans to impose 25%tariffs on most imports.Auto tariffs will take effect tonight.25%tariffs on all foreign-made autos as of midnight.Only a mega market meltdown and House/Senate Republican revolt could change Trumps mindUS tariff historySource:Tax Foundation,DBS2025(Trump)20%+1890s(McKinley)50%20%Av

4、erage rate on dutiable importsAverage rate on all imports10-60%1930(Hawley-Smoot)60%20%2018-19(Trump)10%3%Regional dispersionEnd of re-shoring?4HK SARSingaporeIndonesiaMalaysiaChinaPhilippinesIndiaThailandS KoreaJapanTaiwanVietnam0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%Share of exports

5、to the USReciprocal ratesTariffs and vulerabilitiesSource:CEIC,DBSChina has reciprocal tariffs and past tariffs.Adds up to over 60%Managing the coming crisisTop-of-mind for a CFO5Investment Portfolio Triage.Portfolio impact,manage liquidity,and hedge exposures where possible against market volatilit

6、yRapid Economic Impact AssessmentUnderwriting&Exposure Review.Trade credit,marine cargo,potentially political risk,D&O for highly impacted industriesStakeholder Communication.Board,regulators,especially MAS,key clients/brokers,and internal teamsCapital Adequacy Check.Re-run solvency calculations bas