星展银行（DBS）：2025亚洲应对特朗普“对等关税”风暴的策略手册（中译版）（16页）.pdf

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1、 Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report.Chart of the Week:Reciprocal tariffs The method behind the flurry of tariff measures announced by the US on April 2 is simplethe more a nation is reliant on US markets,the more tariffs they face.From there it should follow that the only way a

2、 country can see tariff relief in the future is by buying more from or selling less to the US.But since the reliability of the US to uphold any agreement is all but gone for now,such gestures may still fall short of providing meaningful relief.The playbook for most Asian economies ought to be to com

3、bine remaining open to the US while pushing for greater integration with the rest of the world.HK SARSingaporeIndonesiaMalaysiaChinaPhilippinesIndiaThailandS KoreaJapanTaiwanVietnam0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0%10%20%30%40%50%Share of exports to the USReciprocal ratesTariffs and vulerabilitiesSource:CEIC,

4、DBS.China faces other tariffs as well.April 7,2025 Economics&Strategy Research Macro Insights Weekly Asias playbook for Trumps tariff storm Economics/Strategy/Rates/FX/Credit Global markets and economies are still struggling to absorb the seismic tariff shock of last week.Risk is now between stagfla

5、tion and outright recession in the US and the associated spillovers.For the US,we see 1%upside to inflation and 1%downside risk from baseline forecast.These estimates could turn worse if trade war intensifies further.There could be secondary tariffs-penalty for buying goods from countries under US s

6、anction.China/EU could retaliate by imposing tariffs on US services exporters.We examine the impact on Asian economies and their possible policy responses.Key data release and events this week:The RBI and BSP are expected to lower rates this week Taiwan exports are expected to stay resilient in 2Q M