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1、 US“Reciprocal”Tariffs and the Erosion of Global Trade Rules:Implications for Germany Lisandra Flach and Lisa Scheckenhofer Key Messages The average tariff gap for traded products between the US and the EU is around 0.5 percentage points,which is relatively low compared to other US trade partners.US

2、 tariff changes aimed at closing the tariff gap between the US and the EU could affect 53%of German exports to the US and 6%of German global exports.While a wide range of products would be affected,the tar-iff increase would remain relatively small for three quarters of traded products,as their tari

3、ff gaps are below 2.3 percentage points.Our simulations show that higher US“reciprocal”tariffs reduce German exports to the US between 2.4%and 3.0%and decrease value added by 0.02%.These small effects for Germany,compared to scenarios with a flat 20%increase in US tariffs,are mostly due to the relat

4、ively low tariff gap between the US and the EU.However,the opposite scenario arises if the EU negotiates“full recipro-cal tariffs”with the US implying that the US also lowers tariffs when its own are higher.In this case,German value added and welfare increase.71 2025 April Vol.9 P9#y1 US“Reciprocal”

5、Tariffs and the Erosion of Global Trade Rules 1 US“Reciprocal”Tariffs and the Erosion of Global Trade Rules:Implications for Germany Lisandra Flach and Lisa Scheckenhofer*ifo Institute,Munich,April 2025 If implemented on April 2,the“Liberation Day”announced by US President Donald Trump would have pr

6、ofound implications for the global trading system.The proposed“reciprocal”tariffs would mirror,product by product,the tariffs imposed on US export-ers worldwide.By asserting the right to impose import tariffs on its partners without any constraint,the US,an important past advocate of multilateralism