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1、December 2024By Torsten SlkApollo Chief Economist2025 Economic Outlook:Firing on All Cylinders 2024 Apollo Global Management,Inc.All Rights Reserved.The information herein is provided for educational and discussion purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice,nor shoul

2、d any information in this document be relied on when making an investment decision.Opinions and views expressed reflect the current opinions and views of the authors and Apollo Analysts as of the date hereof and are subject to change.Please see the end of this document for important disclosure infor

3、mation.KEY TAKEAWAYS The outlook for the US economy remains strong with no signs of a major slowdown going into 2025.We continue to see interest rates staying higher for longer on a relative basis,regardless of the Federal Reserves ongoing monetary easing campaign.It is too early to assess the impac

4、t of potential new policies following Donald Trumps election as US president.That said,if implemented,his key policy objectiveslower taxes,higher tariffs,and reduced immigrationcould increase rates,boost asset prices,drive inflation,and strengthen the dollar.The US economy has charted its own path i

5、n the post-pandemic world,and it is diverging from both its own historical performance in a context of higher rates as well as its historical correlation to other developed economies,especially Europe and Japan.Why?Because:The US economy has proven to be much less sensitive to the Feds interest rate

6、s hikes than in years past due to key idiosyncrasies(i.e.,large,liquid,and long-duration fixed-rate markets for mortgages and corporate bonds),which have allowed both individuals and corporations to“lock in”rock-bottom interest rates for periods of up to 30 years.The US is experiencing a surge in co