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1、2025 World Economic Outlook The World Faces Trump 2.0January 17,2025*Translated from the original Japanese version released at the end of December 2024(slightly modified)Table of Contents22025 World Economic Outlook1.Real GDP Forecast(p.4)2.Trump 2.0:Policies and Impacts(pp.5-9)3.Chinas Economic Slo

2、wdown(p.10)4.Commodity Market(p.11)5.Risk Scenarios(p.12)2025 World Economic Outlook3Global growth is expected to slow down to 3.0 percent in 2025 alongside Trump 2.0Global Economy Set to Slow Down41.Real GDP ForecastComposition of each region/group is based on IMF.Global shares are calculated based

3、 on purchasing power parity(PPP).Source:Marubeni Institute(Actual:IMF)Real GDP Growth Forecast(YoY,%)Global economic growth in 2025 is expected to be 3.0%,down from 3.1%in 2024.While lower inflation and gradual monetary easing will support economic growth,further global fragmentation will significan

4、tly weigh on the global economy.The policies of the new US President Trump,the most important factor in 2025,will inject more uncertainty not only in the US but also in the global economy as a whole.Although Trumps trade policies will likely hit the Chinese economy most significantly,other trading p

5、artners in the existing value chains will also be affected negatively.Sentiments for trade and investment stagnates as uncertainty deepen,which could make global economic growth much lower.Inflation continues to contract worldwide,but disinflation pace in the US will be slower due to the impact of a

6、dditional tariffs as well as concerns about labor supply related to new immigration policies.The Federal Reserve Board should become more cautious on monetary easing,while the European Central Bank will keep on lowering its policy rate.The Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates,but the