中国财政科学研究院：中国经济社会转型与养老保险制度的可持续（34页）.pdf

1、刘尚希Shangxi Liu 中国经济社会转型与养老保险制度的可持续Economic and Social Transformation and Sustainable Pension Insurance System of China010203中国经济社会转型的背景与特征Background and Characteristics of Chinas Economic and Social Transformation经济社会转型对养老保险制度的影响Impact of Economic and Social Transformation on the Endowment Insurance

2、 System04养老保险制度的可持续发展策略Sustainable Development Strategy of Pension Insurance System05国际经验与借鉴International Experience and Reference06结论与展望Conclusion and Prospect养老保险制度的历史演进与现状分析Analysis of Evolution and Status of Endowment Insurance System一、中国经济社会转型的背景与特征The Background and Characteristics of Chinas E

3、conomic and SocialTransformation经济由高速度增长转向中低速增长和高质量发展。The economy has shifted from high-speed growth tomedium-low-speedgrowthandhigh-qualitydevelopment.经济转向中低速增长，各种问题将会更凸显出来，一些体制问题“水落石出”。When the economy turns to medium and low-speedgrowth,various problems will become more prominent,and some institu

4、tional problems will come to light.（一）经济快速发展的转型阶段（一）经济快速发展的转型阶段Transition Stage Of Rapid Economic DevelopmentTransition Stage Of Rapid Economic DevelopmentGDP（亿元）(100 million yuan)GDP增速（%）Growth rate2012538580.0 7.9 2013592963.2 7.8 2014643563.1 7.4 2015688858.2 7.0 2016746395.1 6.8 2017832035.9 6.9

5、 2018919281.1 6.7 2019986515.2 6.0 20201013567.0 2.2 20211149237.0 8.4 20221204724.0 3.0 20231260582.1 5.2 表1 2012-2023年GDP及其增速Table 1 GDP and its growth rate from 2012 to 2023社会结构呈现少子化、动态社会、城市化等趋势，人口年龄结构、家庭结构、居住养老方式巨变，人户分离特征明显。The social structure shows the trend of low birth rate,dynamic society a

6、nd urbanization,and the populationage structure,family structure and the way of living for the aged have changed dramatically,and thecharacteristics of household separation are obvious.少子化：出生人口自2017年以来连续七年下降，2023年出生人口902万人，比2022年减少54万人。Low birth rate:The number of births has declined for seven conse