清华五道口：2020年中国消费券发放情况及影响因素浅析报告（22页）.pdf

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1、 研究报告 （2020 年第 12 期 总第 93 期）2020 年 9 月 7 日 20202020 年中国消费券发放情况及影响因素浅析年中国消费券发放情况及影响因素浅析 民生财富管理研究中心 曹泉伟 陈卓 李想 王平凡 【摘要】【摘要】2020 年初，新冠肺炎在全国范围内爆发，对居民生活和企业生产都造成了巨大影响。有鉴于此，全国已有多个省市级政府采用消费券这一财政手段来刺激纾困、提振信心。消费券通过“促进终端消费-企业扩大再生产-企业用工稳定-员工收入提升-消费需求增加”的良性循环机制，使企业的扩大再生产做到“有的放矢”，实现供给端与需求端的共同恢复。本报告简要介绍了我国各地政府发放消费券

2、的特殊背景和发放情况，梳理了不同消费券的设计特征，并探究了影响消费券发放决策的潜在因素，主要内容包括：（1）消费券发放的特殊背景、消费券的基本概念以及数字消费券的经济意义；（2）消费券的发放日期、发放总额、品类、面额、覆盖人群和有效期；（3）通过“最小杠杆”来量化 地方政府期望实现的“乘数效应”；（4）关于地域宏观经济变量如何影响消费券发放总额和“最小杠杆”的实证分析。Research Report Sep 7th,2020 Brief Analysis of Consumption Voucher Issuing and Influence Factors in China(2020)Min

3、sheng Wealth Management Research Center CAO Quanwei,CHEN Zhuo,LI Xiang and WANG Pingfan Abstract:Faced with COVID-19 pandemic outburst across the entire country,causing tremendous disruption in both citizens everyday lives as well as businesss daily economic activities,a large number of regional gov

4、ernments in China decided to employ Consumption Voucher as the fiscal policy tool to contain recession and boost domestic demand.In a virtuous cycle where increased consumption lead to expanded production,stabilized employment,raised citizen income and further enhanced domestic consumption,regional

5、governments expected the Voucher to ultimately bring about healthy rebound from both the supply and demand side.This paper summarizes multiple aspects of the Voucher design and researches into potential influence factors behind the Voucher release,including(1)The special macroeconomic background bef

6、ore Voucher release,the definition of Voucher and its economic importance.(2)Different regional governments Voucher release date,release amount,consumption categories,face value,citizen coverage and term of validity.(3)A new concept“Minimum Leverage”to quantify the Multiplier Effects regional govern