动荡世界中的美国硬木出口.pdf

1、US Hardwood Exports in a Turbulent WorldMichael S SnowAmerican Hardwood Export CouncilNovember 2024Percent Changes in Growth,Removals,and MortalityHardwood Sawtimber 2012-20206,916,76,810,11,415,627,527,430,5-4,8-13,21,9-7,6-20,3-17,6-30-20-10010203040NortheastLake StatesCentralMid-AtlanticSouthernP

2、ercent ChangeGrowthMortalityAnnual average mortality and removals of eastern hardwood growing stock12345671976199620062016Growing Stock(billion cubic ft)MortalityRemovalsLuppold and Bumgardner 2021Source:Trade Data MonitorHardwood Lumber Exporters$-$200$400$600$800$1 000$1 200$1 400$1 600Millions($U

3、SD)Largest Global Hardwood Lumber ImportersJAN-MAY Data202220232024Source:Global Trade Atlas,all years are Jan-May dataSource:USDA GATSUS Hardwood Lumber,Log and Veneer Exports by Market Share-100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1 0002018201920202021202220232024Millions of Board FeetMid Year US Hard

4、wood Lumber Exports,Board FeetOTHERThailandIndonesiaAustraliaJapanMid.East&N.AfricaMexicoEuropeVietnamCanadaChinaSource:USDA GATS,all years are Jan-June data0100 000200 000300 000400 000500 000600 000700 000800 000201920202021202220232024US Lumber to China(Jan-June,m3)Other TemperateHickoryMapleWest

5、ern Red AlderYellow PoplarWhite OakAshCherryWalnutRed OakSource:USDA GATS,all years are Jan-June dataOxford Economics estimated at the end of 2022 that Chinese housing demand was 8 million units per year from 2010 through 2019 but would drop to only 4.6 million per year from next year through 2030.P

6、eople have moved to the cities,birth rates are falling,and housing speculation has cooled0500 0001 000 0001 500 0002 000 0002 500 0003 000 000US Hardwood Lumber and Logs to China(m3)LUMBER to ChinaLOGS to ChinaSource:USDA GATS,2024 is annualized based on mid-year data050 000100 000150 000200 000250