莱坊国际（Knight Frank）：2021年英国通胀率利率辩论能源价格报告（英文版）（12页）.pdf

1、Flights return to pre-pandemic levels as travel continues to resume World number of flights, 7 day moving average50k80k110k140k170k200k230kJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecThe new Chief Economist at the BoE predicts that inflation couldrise “close to or even slightly above 5 per cent” in early 20

2、22.Although earlier this week markets were strongly pricing in a ratehike as soon as next month, this has been slightly temperedfollowing an announcement by Silvana Tenreyo, a BoE interestrate-setter, that she believes more time is needed before action istaken. Nevertheless, markets are currently pr

3、icing a reversal ofthe emergency 0.1% rate cut, back to a 0.25% base rate withinthe next 6 months and a November rate rise is not yet off thetable.MACROCOVID-19VOLATILITY & MOBILITYREITsTRADECOMMODITIESBONDS & RATESSUMMARYEQUITIESCURRENCIES & MONETARY POLICYESGCONTAINMENT MEASURESRESEARCHNEED TO KNO

4、WLOOKING AHEADContact: Victoria Ormond, CFAHead of Capital Markets ResearchV+44 20 7861 5009Source: Flight24, Knight FrankSources: Bank of England, Financial Times, OECD, ONS, Trading Economics, Knight Frank 5%Forecast inflation rate early 2022$86Brent Crude26 October 20213.1% UK CPISeptember2019 20

5、20 2021UK inflation undershoots expectations. The CPI inflation rate inthe UK nudged downwards to 3.1% in September from a 9 yearhigh of 3.2% the month prior. This softening is partly due to theEat Out to Help Out restaurant scheme in August last year whichtemporarilyelevatedrestaurantinflationinAug

6、ust2021.Nevertheless, energy prices, supply-chain bottlenecks and labourcosts are expected to support a continuation of above targetinflation, potentially into 2023, according to the Bank of England(BoE).Budget and Spending Review On Wednesday, Chancellor Rishi Sunak will announce his Budget and Spe