【公司研究】中国人寿-国寿重振价值回归可期-20200702[33页].pdf

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1、 / 2019 4,000 45%77% 2019 45.3%23.8% 201987% 201918.6% 2019 4,827.918.5% ROE 2020P/EV0.72 2019 2020 P/EV0.8-1.131.09-42.752020-2022 2.132.502.91EV38.86 45.7454.42 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 643,101 745,165 809,994 900,552 1,002,764 (+/-)% -1.55% 15.87% 8.70% 11.18% 11.35% 11,395 58,287 60,141 70,73

2、0 82,310 (+/-)% -64.67% 411.51% 3.18% 17.61% 16.37% 0.39 2.05 2.13 2.50 2.91 P/E 52.28 17.01 13.22 11.24 9.66 P/B 1.81 2.44 1.99 1.68 1.48 P/EV 0.72 1.05 0.72 0.62 0.52 % 3.46% 14.35% 15.03% 14.97% 15.33% () 28,265 28,265 28,265 28,265 28,265 2020/7/1 6 42.75 28.13 12 23.9736.30 795,086 28,265 A 20,

3、824 B/H 0/7,441 23 -16% -8% 0% 8% 16% 2019/72019/102020/12020/4 % 1M 3M 12M 7% 8% -5% 1% -8% -13% -20200601 -20200511 -20200429 -20200413 S0550520020001 13801276398 601628 / 2020-07-02 2 / 33 P/EV0.842020P/EV0.72 P/EV2020 10,984 2020P/EV0.8-1.1 31.09-42.752020-20222.132.50 2.91EV38.8645.7454.42 1202

4、08.3% 2020 2 2020-20227.6% 3P/EV 0.8-1.1 123 1 2 3 / 33 1 1949 2003121720031218200719 2020 38,747.19 2 20194,000 201918.49%9,412 20195,67119.14% 20101,43420194,36645% 77%2019161.3 2019 70116.6 3 2011-20172018 2018 2019 4 / 33 4 2019 77% 3.15.145.3%23.8% 20198.687% 201918.6% 2019 25.1%4,827.918.5% 20

5、19 16.6%39.5%11.1%32.9%2019 ROE 5 / 33 1. . 8 1.1. . 8 1.2. . 8 1.3. . 9 1.4. . 10 2. . 10 2.1. . 10 2.2. . 12 2.2.1. . 12 2.2.2. . 13 2.3. . 14 3. . 15 3.1. . 15 3.1.1. . 15 3.1.2. . 17 3.2. . 17 3.2.1. . 17 3.2.2. . 19 3.2.3. . 19 4. . 20 4.1. . 20 4.1.1. . 20 4.1.2. . 20 4.1.3. . 20 4.2. . 21 4.2

6、.1. . 21 4.2.2. . 21 4.2.3. . 22 4.3. . 23 4.3.1. . 23 4.3.2. . 23 4.3.3. . 24 4.4. . 24 4.4.1. . 25 4.4.2. ROE . 26 5. . 27 5.1. . 27 5.2. . 28 6 / 33 5.3. . 28 5.4. . 29 5.5. . 29 6. . 30 1 . 8 2 . 9 3 . 9 4 . 11 52015-2019 . 11 6CR4 . 11 % . 11 72015-2019 . 11 82015-2019 .12 9 .12 10 .12 11% .13