GSMA-2017年欧洲移动经济报告英文-2017-40页-（40页）.pdf

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1、The Mobile Economy Europe 2017 Copyright 2017 GSM Association The GSMA represents the interests of mobile operators worldwide, uniting nearly 800 operators with more than 300 companies in the broader mobile ecosystem, including handset and device makers, software companies, equipment providers and i

2、nternet companies, as well as organisations in adjacent industry sectors. The GSMA also produces industry-leading events such as Mobile World Congress, Mobile World Congress Shanghai, Mobile World Congress Americas and the Mobile 360 Series of conferences. For more information, please visit the GSMA

3、 corporate website at Follow the GSMA on Twitter: GSMA GSMA Intelligence is the definitive source of global mobile operator data, analysis and forecasts, and publisher of authoritative industry reports and research. Our data covers every operator group, network and MVNO in every country worldwide fr

4、om Afghanistan to Zimbabwe. It is the most accurate and complete set of industry metrics available, comprising tens of millions of individual data points, updated daily. GSMA Intelligence is relied on by leading operators, vendors, regulators, financial institutions and third-party industry players,

5、 to support strategic decision-making and long-term investment planning. The data is used as an industry reference point and is frequently cited by the media and by the industry itself. Our team of analysts and experts produce regular thought-leading research reports across a range of industry topic

6、s. Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY2 1.INDUSTRY OVERVIEW8 1.1.Europe has limited room for subscriber growth as it approaches saturation 9 1.2.4G migration continues and has plenty of upside with 5G to come10 1.3.Revenue trends and outlook16 1.4.M with the potential for speeds to reach above 1 Gbps, we are

7、 beginning to see 4G that is as fast as 5G. Since the end of 2013, a total of 81 LTE-Advanced networks have launched in Europe and, in the last two years, 12 LTE-Advanced Pro networks have launched. At the same time, the rollout of voice over LTE (VoLTE) continues to progress, with live deployments

8、in 25 European countries. Completing the transition to this service is important for operators in order to achieve end-to-end IP communications, which can facilitate new services (advanced comms), while also enabling spectrum refarming and the shutdown of 2G and 3G networks. Collectively, these adva

9、ncements in technology will act as a stepping stone towards achieving the 5G vision. As the industrys attention shifts to 5G and its commercial realisation by the end of the decade, the evolution of the 4G technology lifecycle still has some way to go, requiring continued investment. A combination o

10、f improved coverage, proliferation of connected devices and the demand for higher- speed networks in Europe continues to drive the adoption of 4G. In 2016, 4G connections totalled 226 million, representing 34% of total connections (excluding M2M). 4G connections are set to overtake 3G connections in

11、 the region in 2017. Out to 2020, 4G connections will grow at an annual CAGR of 18% to 435 million, reaching 61% of total connections in 2020. Industry overview 10 THE MOBILE ECONOMY EUROPE 2017 Share of connections by technology Source: GSMA IntelligenceFigure 2 At this level, there remains plenty

12、of upside for future 4G growth. Smartphone adoption is fairly consistent across Europe with most major markets in the range of 6070% adoption (as a share of total connections) but this is not the case with 4G adoption. While the UK and the Netherlands are the most advanced, other countries have much

13、 lower rates for example, in Germany, Belgium, Italy and Austria, 4G adoption of total connections is below 40%. This leaves significant room for growth, which could give a boost to financial performance and also benefit consumers, given the increasing demand for higher-speed, always-on connectivity

14、. 20142010201620122019201520112018201720132020 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 3G2G4G Industry overview 11 THE MOBILE ECONOMY EUROPE 2017 4G adoption lagging smartphone adoption in certain European countries Source: GSMA IntelligenceFigure 3 5G connections in Europe are expected to reach

15、 214 million in 2025 Having lagged on the development and rollout of 4G, the European Commission is attempting to take a leadership role in 5G. The Commissions 5G Action Plan set out the technology and regulatory requirements, while the 5G-PPP (public-private partnership) project put forward by the

16、Commission is contributing to the research, development and standardisation of the technology. Despite this, the US and Asian countries including South Korea, Japan and China are likely to be among the first 5G markets. GSMA Intelligence anticipates that global 5G adoption will take longer than 4G b

17、ecause of slower network rollouts and uncertainties around the value proposition relative to LTE. Europe could be an exception to this, given that 4G adoption is still relatively immature. However, there are a number of challenges, including spectrum availability, that will need to be addressed for

18、5G to prosper. GSMA Intelligence estimates that Europe will reach 214 million 5G connections in 2025, representing adoption of 31.0%. On a regional basis, Asia Pacific will account for the largest share of 5G connections by 2025, followed by Europe and North America. 5G adoption in Europe is expecte

19、d to initially outstrip the equivalent rate of adoption of 4G in the years following the first launch (Figure 4). This is largely due to the fact that 4G launches across Europe were staggered, whereas 5G will start to be rolled out across most major European markets in 2020. Nevertheless, this diver

20、gence in adoption is expected to draw close to parity by 2025. Coverage of 5G is expected to reach 73% of the population by 2025. The countries expected to lead in terms of 5G connections are Germany (37 million, 33.6% adoption), the UK (34 million, 43.7%) and France (32 million, 47.6%). 64% 30% Ger

21、many 81% 46% France 60% 27% Italy 72% 44% Spain 70% 54% Netherlands 56% 27% Belgium 71% 16% Austria 74% 60% UK Smartphone adoption4G adoption Percentage of total connections Industry overview 12 THE MOBILE ECONOMY EUROPE 2017 4G and 5G adoption, years after first launch Europe 5G forecasts Source: G

22、SMA Intelligence Source: GSMA Intelligence Connections (Millions) Figure 4 Figure 5 000111222333444555 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% EuropeNorth AmericaChina, Japan, South Korea Note: Launch years North America: 4G (2010), 5G (2019); Europe: 4G (2011), 5G (2020); CJK: 4G (2011), 5G (2019) 5G4G Populati

23、on coverageAdoptionConnections 250 200 150 100 50 0 2023201920252021202420202022 2 20 61 115 167 214 31% 73% Percentage of total connections Industry overview 13 THE MOBILE ECONOMY EUROPE 2017 An open letter from the CEOs of European mobile operators2 emphasised the need for spectrum reform; creatin

24、g the right spectrum policy framework is critical to the development of a true Digital Single Market. More details on policies for a digital Europe can be found in Section 3. In Germany, the Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure adopted the “Gigabit Germany Initiative for the Future” with

25、 the objective to invest 100 billion to create a high-performance, gigabit-speed broadband network in the country by 2025. In addition to this, during an earnings call with analysts, Deutsche Telekom claimed capex into fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) would start to feature to a larger extent from 2019. In

26、July, Telecom Italia achieved speeds of up to 1 Gbps on its live LTE Advanced Pro mobile network with Licensed Assisted Access (LAA) technology. The service will be commercially available in Milan and Turin from September 2017. Meanwhile, Arqiva and Samsung Electronics launched a field trial of 5G f

27、ixed wireless access (FWA) technology in central London. Using Arqivas 28 GHz millimetre wave (mmWave) spectrum, the initial tests achieved a stable two-way mmWave link with download speeds of around 1 Gbps at the CPE (router). As part of the European Commissions Digital Single Market strategy, the

28、5G Action Plan was launched in September 2016. It sets out a roadmap for public and private investment on 5G infrastructure in the EU and, among other measures, makes provisional spectrum bands available for 5G ahead of WRC-19. The Commission has set an interim target for 5G to be commercially avail

29、able in at least one major city in each EU Member State by 2020. By 2025, it is expected that all urban areas as well as major roads and railways should have uninterrupted coverage. Recent developments in Europe include the following: Early 5G networks will be based on 3GPP Release 15 and will be de

30、ployed in dense urban areas as mobile operators look to offer increased performance and supplement existing mobile broadband capacity. 5Gs next phase, based on 3GPP Release 16, will bring further enhancements to mobile data, and the rest of the commercial requirements including massive IoT and criti

31、cal communication services. 2. Including: Deutsche Telekom, GSMA, KPN, Orange, Telecom Italia, Telefnica, Telekom Austria, Telenor Group, Telia Company and Vodafone Group Industry overview 14 THE MOBILE ECONOMY EUROPE 2017 Capex ( billion)Capex/revenue (percentage) Capex in Europe Source: GSMA Intel

32、ligenceFigure 6 Capex has peaked for 4G but next wave of 5G investment to come post-2020 Mobile operators in Europe have outlaid a total of 129 billion on capex over the last five years. More recently, the focus of these investments has shifted towards LTE upgrades and network densification, but the

33、re is also an increased focus on investment in fibre networks, whether organically or through acquisition. These can support the deployment of 5G networks by providing backhaul data and enable operators to offer converged products. The impact of 5G on capex remains unclear, with estimates from opera

34、tors varying widely. Deutsche Telekom CEO Timotheus Httges has estimated that the deployment cost for 5G across Europe will be significantly higher than 4G rollout, at between 300 billion and 500 billion. One explanation for this lack of clarity is the wide range of 5G spectrum in use, from sub-1 GH

35、z to mmWave, requiring different densities of base stations. In Europe, many countries carrying 4G on sub-1 GHz will face a significant shortage of base stations for 5G rollout. While 5G investment is already underway, with pre- standardisation trials and investment in backhaul, we expect the majori

36、ty of this capital outlay will come in the post-2020 period. 2222 22 24 25 26 26 28 24 22 21 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020 12% 13% 15% 19% 18% 18% 17% 16% 15% 15% 15% Industry overview 15 THE MOBILE ECONOMY EUROPE 2017 1.3 Revenue trends and outlook European mobile

37、revenues are showing signs of stabilising, following a prolonged period of negative or no growth. The modest improvement in the financial outlook has been helped by a slowly improving economic environment, a lessening impact of regulatory headwinds (as MTR reductions wash through) and a continued sh

38、ift to higher usage 4G tariffs. The recovery in Spain continues to gather momentum, with revenues forecast to grow by around 2% annually to 2020. However, continued headwinds in the UK and France are expected to contribute to marginal, 1% annual mobile revenue declines over the same period. Revenue

39、trends in Europe Source: GSMA IntelligenceFigure 7 Concerns around sustainability of unlimited data plans may spur rise in zero-rated/bundled packages Mobile operators in the region are seeking better ways to monetise rising mobile data traffic and convergence. In Europe, total mobile data traffic i

40、s expected to grow at a CAGR of 42% between 2016 and 2022 to 15.8 EB per month.3 To accommodate this growing demand for data, which continues to be driven by video consumption, a number of operators in Europe have started to offer unlimited data plans. This follows a similar strategy in the US, wher

41、e intense competitive pressures resulted in all four major operators introducing unlimited data plans. 146146 145 144143144144 150 145 140 135 130 -4% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2014201520162017201820192020 Revenues ( billion)Annual revenue growth 3. Based on analysis of Ericsson Mobility Report data Industr

42、y overview 16 THE MOBILE ECONOMY EUROPE 2017 Total mobile data traffic in Europe Source: Ericsson, GSMA IntelligenceFigure 8 While these plans are proving popular with consumers, questions remain over their sustainability; once one operator launches unlimited data plans in a country, others are unde

43、r pressure to follow, which has knock-on impacts on network performance. Moreover, the concerns are that network capacity will be affected by the combination of the recent abolition of roaming fees across EU member countries, the increase in number of operators offering unlimited data plans, and the

44、 fact that commercial launches of 5G are not expected until the start of the next decade. To date, operators across the region have adopted various approaches to data monetisation, such as by offering tiered or shared data plans and increasingly through bundled and zero-rated content and application

45、s. For example, Vodafone has launched a new commercial pricing model, Vodafone Pass, in several European markets.4 Rather than purchasing data bundles, customers can now buy passes for unlimited access to different app categories social, chat, music and video meaning a users data allowance is not af

46、fected. Although product and content bundling is not a new concept, there has been a notable rise in zero-rated apps and content bundles, which offer a viable and appealing alternative to unlimited data plans. Keeping in mind net-neutrality laws, the effective zero-rating of apps is a simple concept

47、 for consumers periodic or unlimited access to apps is easier to understand than consumption of bytes of data and this can alleviate some of the concerns around unlimited data plans on network performance. This also can benefit consumers by lowering the barriers to access for more price- sensitive d

48、ata users, who may have otherwise been priced out of unlimited data plans. (EB/Month) 4. As of Q1 2018 results published in July 2017, these include Spain, Italy, Romania, Hungary and Greece 15.8 1.9 1.3 201520162022 42% CAGR Industry overview 17 THE MOBILE ECONOMY EUROPE 2017 While over-the-top ser

49、vices continue to cannibalise traditional voice and SMS services, there remains varied use of IP messaging apps across Europe. According to the 2016 GSMA Intelligence consumer survey of 56 countries globally, on average 46% of consumers in Europe use IP messages more frequently than traditional text (SMS). Conversely, just under 40% of the consumers surveyed noted that they dont use IP messaging apps. These usage trends vary significantly across countries (see Figure 9). For example, almost 80% of mobile users in Spain use IP messaging apps more fr