2020年IT行业展望- 美国计算机行业协会（英文版）（42页）.pdf

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1、IT INDUSTRY OUTLOOK 2020 November 2019 #IndustryOutlook Taking the Next Step CompTIA.org3CompTIA IT Industry Outlook 2020 Introduction Progress has never been a bargain. Youve got to pay for it. Sometimes I think theres a man behind a counter who says, All right, you can have a telephone; but youll

2、have to give up privacy, the charm of distance. You may conquer the air; but the birds will lose their wonder, and the clouds will smell of gasoline! A t the beginning of a new decade, these lines from the play Inherit the Wind seem as appropriate for the technology industry as they did for the deba

3、te over evolution taking place in the drama. The tech industry is faced with a tricky balancing act: continuing to drive innovative solutions while grappling with the side effects of those solutions in the global economy. The challenge itself is not uniqueevery industry deals with this tension as it

4、 becomes more maturebut the new variables here are the scale that tech is able to achieve and the evolutionary aspect of mixing digital and physical worlds. Its time for the industry to take the next step. There are tremendous benefits available through technology for both business and society, but

5、there are major questions around safety, privacy, sustainability, and trust. The answers to these questions come from combining technical expertise with social awareness. By embracing responsibility for all the changes innovation can bring, the tech industry can be responsible for driving future pro

6、gress. $5.2 trillion global technology industry (2019 projection) $1.7 trillion U.S. technology industry (2020 projection) 5.4 % optimistic upside growth projection (2020 projection) 3.7% global growth projection (2020 projection) CompTIA.org4CompTIA IT Industry Outlook 2020 About CompTIA The Comput

7、ing Technology Industry Association (CompTIA) is a leading voice and advocate for the $5.2 trillion global information technology ecosystem; and the more than 50 million industry and tech professionals who design, implement, manage, and safeguard the technology that powers the worlds economy. Throug

8、h education, training, certifications, advocacy, philanthropy, and market research, CompTIA is the hub for advancing the tech industry and its workforce. About this Report CompTIAs IT Industry Outlook 2020 provides insight into the trends shaping the industry, its workforce, and its business models.

9、 Because trends do not occur in a vacuum, the report provides context through market sizing, workforce sizing, and other references to supporting data. The interrelated nature of technology where elements of infrastructure, software, data and services come together, means trends tend to unfold in a

10、step-like manner. A breakthrough may lead to a notable advance, which may then be followed by what could be perceived as lateral movement as the other inputs catch-up. Some of the trends highlighted in this report focus on an early stage facet of a trend, while others recognize a trend moving beyond

11、 “buzzword” to reaching a certain stage of market-ready maturity. As such, the timing of trend impact may vary from reader to reader depending on company type, role, or country. Lastly, if it appears a noteworthy technology, workforce, or business of technology trend is missing, it may be because th

12、e trend was covered in a previous release of the IT Industry Outlook. Visit www.CompTIA.org for past reports and an extensive library of research and educational content. Copyright (c) 2019 CompTIA Properties, LLC. All Rights Reserved. CompTIA.org CompTIA is responsible for all content and analysis.

13、 Any questions regarding the report should be directed to CompTIA Research and Market Intelligence staff at researchcomptia.org. CompTIA.org5CompTIA IT Industry Outlook 2020 1 TECH-WASHING FADES IN FAVOR OF REAL STRATEGY 7 DEMAND FOR INTEGRATION DRIVES DEMAND FOR AUTOMATION 3 TECH TOPICS ARE FRONT A

14、ND CENTER IN U.S. ELECTIONS 9 DEEP FAKES AND 5G EXACERBATE THE DATA MANAGEMENT CHALLENGE 5 INTERNET OF THINGS CONTINUES TO REDEFINE IT ARCHITECTURE 2 WORKFORCE DIVERSITY GROWS IN MANY WAYS 8 CYBERSECURITY BECOMES MORE OPERATIONAL 4 HYPE MEETS REALITY WITH EMERGING TECHNOLOGY 10 TECH INDUSTRY REGULAT

15、ION STIRS FEARS 6 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE EATS THE WORLD Trends to Watch 2020 CompTIA.org6CompTIA IT Industry Outlook 2020 Tech-Washing Fades in Favor of Real Strategy T hanks to the vast influx of user-friendly technologies, it has become popular to say that every company is a tech company. But the

16、 ubiquity of technology does not necessarily change the underlying business model. While digital transformation is creating new avenues for growth, companies are finding that they cannot simply slap tech labels on their products and practices and automatically reap benefits. On one end of the spectr

17、um, this takes the shape of larger companies going public and struggling with the realities of their industry. There are well-established economics and regulations in industries such as transportation or real estate. Software and mobile devices may connect consumers directly or change a distribution

18、 model, but it is more difficult to alter profit margins or navigate complex interconnections, especially at scale. On the other end of the spectrum, there are smaller businesses who can easily fall prey to marketing hyperbole. As with previous trends like unified communications or gamification, new

19、 trends like artificial intelligence and blockchain hold a great deal of promise but require significant investment or change to workflow. Smaller companies are finding that purchasing new technology is not the same as truly integrating that technology for improved results. Just as the opportunistic

20、 use of labels has often applied to individual trends, the same behavior has been happening with technology in general. Rather than attempting to use technology as a crutch, businesses will become much more intentional about strategically integrating technology into their culture and roadmap. 1 Comp

21、TIA.org7CompTIA IT Industry Outlook 2020 Workforce Diversity Grows in Many Ways W orkforce diversity most often refers to having an employee population that reflects the general population, with no preferential treatment or restrictive measure given on the basis of gender, race, age, or other factor

22、s. The technology workforce in particular has been under the microscope for its lack of diversity thanks to unconscious bias and optimization along with other behavior that is far more conscious, such as barriers to access for low income students or even reports of outright abuse. In 2020, the call

23、for improved diversity will continue to pay dividends, even if fully diverse and inclusive environments still lie further in the future. Going beyond efforts around common conceptions of diversity, there will also be a marked increase in the skill diversity that companies are seeking. Twenty years a

24、go, the stereotypical IT worker had a heavy concentration in infrastructure skills and worked in relative isolation from the rest of the business. Today, companies are seeking expertise across all four areas of CompTIAs IT frameworkinfrastructure, software development, cybersecurity, and data. In ma

25、ny cases, companies are hoping to find candidates with some degree of work experience, so there is less willingness to take an entry-level generalist and steer them towards a specialization. Beyond technical skills, businesses are also looking for technology professionals that can speak the language

26、 of the business, collaborating with other departments in order to drive technology-fueled business results. Employability skills such as communications and teamwork are no longer reserved for those workers on a management track, but now apply at every level. Given the shortage of skills on the mark

27、et, there are no easy answers for how companies will fill these needs, but there are tremendous opportunities for technologists in every field. 2 CompTIA.org8CompTIA IT Industry Outlook 2020 Tech Topics Are Front and Center in U.S. Elections A s the IT industry is maturing, there are challenges pose

28、d as a result of techs larger impact on the economy and deeper integration with society. In 2020, the U.S. election cycle will put a spotlight on many of these issues. Debate in Washington and around the country has already begun with respect to the responsibilities of certain players in the IT sect

29、or. Despite the overwhelming consumer and business benefits enabled by the IT industry, CompTIA data shows that 7 in 10 firms in the business of selling technology, most SMB-sized, fear that a negative perception of the tech industry is gaining momentum across the country and becoming more of an iss

30、ue in general. In particular, increased awareness over privacy and how information is being collected and used could impact voters decisions. Other issues might also join the discussion this election cycle, including cybersecurity, automation, artificial intelligence, net neutrality, and technologys

31、 role in mitigating climate change and educating our children. When it comes to voting itself, election security also remains a key concern for voters. The use of voting technology, coupled with the need to assure voters that their ballot will be counted, underscores the need for safety, reliability

32、, and accessibility in digital infrastructure. 3 CompTIA.org9CompTIA IT Industry Outlook 2020 Hype Meets Reality with Emerging Technology O ver the past several years, there has been a lot of excitement around emerging technologies. At an operational level, this has been a positive trend as it has h

33、elped businesses build better practices for evaluating early-stage topics and accelerating adoption. At a tactical level, though, it has created some chaos. Without the chance to wait and see which technologies prove their worth, companies have found themselves confronted with a bevy of optionsa sit

34、uation that exacerbates resource constraint and skill gaps. Heading into a new year, the hype around emerging technology remains high, especially among those firms selling and supporting technology. Many firms in the IT industry are expecting significant gains in emerging tech adoption or growth wit

35、hin their user base. Of course, part of the reason for significant gains is that the original base is fairly small. And this is where the reality sets in. CompTIAs end user data shows a very slow adoption curve across various new trends, with only two trends beginning to reach critical mass (interne

36、t of things and artificial intelligence). Even amid all the hype, companies in the business of technology are starting to pull back on adopting new technology as part of their portfolio. This slight tap on the brakes suggests that classic situation where companies move too quickly into a new technol

37、ogy discipline or business model only to have a reality check in year two or three. Beyond IoT and AI, companies are excited about building solutions on top of 5G infrastructure, and other topics may have strong but specific use cases (drones), function more as enabling technology (blockchain), or s

38、till have years before making an impact (quantum computing). The market is settling down, but it will remain a source of interest since new trends can still take off overnight. 4 CompTIA.org10CompTIA IT Industry Outlook 2020 Internet of Things Continues to Redefine IT Architecture A s one of the two

39、 emerging technologies to be gaining significant traction, internet of things seems poised to join cloud computing and mobile devices as a permanent part of the modern technology landscape. Businesses are quickly discovering the value in digitizing their environment and their operations, collecting

40、data that can help with future decision-making. The trend is also showing positive returns for companies that sell and support technology. Half of these firms report either major or minor levels of IoT-related sales in the last year, with others experimenting internally. Today, IoT as a managed serv

41、ices play is driving the most revenue in this category, but looking ahead to the next two years companies are predicting that analytics on data captured by IoT sensors then shared with customers holds the most financial promise. The first wave of IoT adoption is making good progress, but the next st

42、age will require a keen understanding of digital BizOps. Rather than treating IoT installations as separate projects, businesses will have to recognize that they are dealing with an expanded architecture. This will dictate networking structures, storage options, data policies, and security decisions

43、. These changes will drive both channel firms and internal IT departments to invest in skills training in order to fully establish a successful data-based analytics practice. As with cloud computing and mobile devices, the groundwork has been laid for IoT to advance digital transformation. 5 CompTIA

44、.org11CompTIA IT Industry Outlook 2020 Artificial Intelligence Eats the World W hen Marc Andreessen made his now-famous statement about software in 2011, he may not have even realized the extent to which the world would be consumed over the next decade. Cloud computing lowered both the barrier for d

45、eveloping software and the barrier for distribution, and mobile devices extended the reach of software to previously unreached corners. The net effect was an exponential increase in softwares ability to drive activity. This created a new challenge in conducting said activity and acting on the data b

46、eing collected. Enter artificial intelligence. With a foundation of software-driven routines and the compute resources to broadly run advanced algorithms, AI can push software to the next level. However, theres a fine line between “eating the world” and “global domination.” The challenges of program

47、ming bias and unreasonable outputs mean that AI requires a different form of oversight than earlier software models. This oversight is an example of the kind of responsible implementation that technology professionals and solution providers must now perform. In addition, functional AI is like any ot

48、her software in that it requires solid inputs. In the case of AI, these inputs are often massive datasets rather than highly specific data points, but there is still a need to ensure quality. For all the disruptive power that AI holds for business operations and job roles, it opens new opportunities

49、 for those with the expertise to manage its appetite. 6 CompTIA.org12CompTIA IT Industry Outlook 2020 Demand for Integration Leads to Demand for Automation A ccording to CompTIAs Tech Buying Trends Among Small & Medium-Sized Businesses, the top technology area where SMBs need the most work is integrating various platforms, applications, and data. Large businesses are focused on integration as well, but they have more internal resources that they can lean on. Even so, third parties are a popular option for integration activities, especially where deep knowledge is needed