2020年医药行业专题报告：制药- HDFC证券（英文版）（20页）.pdf

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1、 28th May, 2020 Thematic Report Pharmaceutical Retail Research P a g e | 1 Retail Research Pharma sector has seen a rerating in terms of stock prices over the last few months led by its defensive character, ebbing of the historical issues faced by it in terms of US FDA diktats, stiff competition in

2、generics pricing in the US, lesser launches in US etc. However the current conditions offer an opportunity for Indian players with efficient cost structures, backward integration and its manufacturing scale. Issues faced by China in terms of quality and the recent move to derisk dependence by the wo

3、rld on China could play to Indias advantage. In the US, we are witnessing an improving outlook for the generic industry with stable QoQ price erosion in the range of the low-to-mid single digits (shortages due to Covid-19 could help stop the price erosion) and may lead to a rise in approvals for Ind

4、ian companies. Indias pharma market has been regularly witnessing 10-11% YoY growth to US$20bn driven by a healthy mix of volume and price-led growth. The industry benefits out of rising penetration of medicines, increasing affordability and a growing incidence of chronic disorders such as diabetes,

5、 cardiac, CNS (Neuro) and oncology. While the long-term outlook is strong, we expect a deceleration in growth for H1 FY21 (April IPM fell by 11% YoY, supply disruptions, with most of the clinics shut leading to lesser new prescriptions, elective surgeries being delayed and hospitals only attending c

6、ritical patients - all these point to a weak H1 F21). The Covid-19 shutdown is likely to have an impact on certain acute therapies (two thirds of the market) due to limited prescription. In addition, chronic ailments (balance one third of the market) like cardiac and diabetes witnessed significant p