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1、 FRAU N H O F E R I N S T I T U T E F O R S YS T E MS A N D IN N OVATION R ESEA R C H ISI Batteries for electric cars: Fact check and need for action Batteries for electric cars: Fact check and need for action Are batteries for electric cars the key to sustainable mobility in the future? Authors Axe
2、l Thielmann, Martin Wietschel, Simon Funke, Anna Grimm, Tim Hettesheimer, Sabine Langkau, Antonia Loibl, Cornelius Moll, Christoph Neef, Patrick Pltz, Luisa Sievers, Luis Tercero Espinoza, Jakob Edler Karlsruhe, January 2020 www.isi.fraunhofer.de4 | 5 Overview and core statements When looking at the
3、 main questions along the entire battery value chain, it becomes clear that there are no insurmountable obstacles that could prevent the widespread market diffusion of battery-electric passenger cars, particularly during the decisive ramp-up phase between 2020 and 2030+. However, numerous technologi
4、cal, economic, ecological, regulatory and societal challenges still need to be tackled in the coming decade. The most important findings are summarized below, followed by a more detailed description in the individual chapters. 01 Do electric cars have a better environ- mental footprint than conventi
5、onal passenger cars? The electric cars sold in Germany today have a much bet- ter greenhouse gas emissions balance than conventional passenger cars over their entire service life, if the energy transition progresses as planned. Their climate footprint and environmental performance can be further imp
6、roved through energy-efficient battery production that is focused on renewable energy sources, more renewable power used for charging and driving, and a closed-loop resource cycle. Like all passenger cars, however, electric cars also have negative environmental impacts, so that transform- ing the tr
7、ansport sector must also involve changed mo- bility behavior (fewer and smaller vehicles, fewer trips). More information on page 11 02 What measures can improve the social and environmental impacts? Extracting the raw materials and producing technical components are associated with ecological and so
8、cial risks regardless of the drive technology used. These risks vary in their severity depending on how weak the legislation and state institutions are in the respective countries. The impacts of battery production and resource extraction represent ecological hotspots in the value creation chain of
9、electric cars. International initiatives with regard to corporate due diligence obligations including their legal framework are sen- sible starting points. Improved conditions can be achieved by management and support and not by relocating production. More information on page 12 03 Do we have enough
10、 global resources? From a global point of view, the raw materials required for batteries like lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese and graph- ite are available in sufficient quantities. The development towards low-cobalt and nickel-rich high-energy batteries will further relieve the pressure on the re
11、source situation for cobalt. The situation concerning lithium is uncritical, but there are still uncertainties about nickel. Temporary shortages or supply bottlenecks or price increases cannot be ruled out in the short to medium term for individual raw materials. For lithium, more advanced recycling
12、 processes on an industrial scale will become increasingly important in the future. More information on page 13 04 What factors are important for com- petitive battery cell production? Access to affordable raw materials and components for batteries will continue to be decisive for competition in the
13、 future as well. It is also important that costs decrease for plants, equipment and labor; this can be achieved through economies of scale as well as energy-efficient and automated production (with smart control for example). The experience of Asian producers here gives them an obvious advantage, an
14、d European and German manufac- turers will have to compensate for this through learning effects and interim additional costs. Unique selling points that are decisive for competition could be created in the future by higher energy densities, rapid charging capaci- ties, lower costs and sustainable pr
15、oduction (for example, by using renewable energy sources for production). More information on page 14 www.isi.fraunhofer.de6 | 7 05 Will the diffusion of electric mobility mean job losses? Although there are different assessments of the employ- ment effects in the automobile industry and its supplie
16、rs, the majority reckon with a significant drop in employment in Germany. Battery cell production itself is highly automated, which is why its positive employment effects are limited. However, there are relevant employment effects resulting from upstream and downstream value chains. There are likely
17、 to be positive employment effects in other areas such as elec- tricity generation or the construction of charging infrastruc- ture. Regions and companies that rely on internal combustion engine powertrains and that are particularly affected by structural change must develop a sustainable business a
18、nd employment model. If required, they must be supported by proactive industrial and employment policy measures so that, combined with the natural age fluctuation struc- tural change can be shaped in a socially compatible way. More information on page 15 06 Will there be supply bottlenecks along the
19、 value creation chain? Today, there are already various reasons for isolated tem- porary supply bottlenecks along the value chain. Examples include the raw materials needed for batteries and cell production and the production and distribution of electric cars. The companies are aware of these and co
20、unteract the risks by diversifying their suppliers, for example, through strategic industrial cooperation along the value chain, research cooperation, joint ventures and in-house produc- tion. These efforts are supported by the government, and this coordinated approach should not be changed in the f
21、uture in order to reduce the industrys supply dependency. More information on page 16 07 How will batteries develop and what ranges can we expect? In the last ten years, the energy density of the large lith- ium-ion batteries (LIB) used in electric cars has almost doubled to an average of 200Wh/kg o
22、r 400Wh/l today. The energy density (especially the volumetric density) could double again by 2030, provided that the major R the focus here is on a higher energy density to achieve greater ranges and simultaneous cost reduction. Stan- dard dimensions have now been defined for the installation space
23、 that make the requirements for volumetric energy den- sity even more stringent. This must be increased to accommo- date a larger battery capacity in the same amount of space in the future. The cost reduction aims to lower the total costs of electric vehicles. In addition, vehicle batteries should h
24、ave fast charging capability in the future so that a BEV can be charged in just a few minutes using a DC charging cable. The minimum requirement for battery life is sufficient to cover 150,000 to 200,000 kilometers, roughly equivalent to 1,000 full cycles. Increasing battery capacities and large ran
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