2020年电动汽车电池发展报告- Fraunhofer ISI（英文版）（18页）.pdf

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1、 FRAU N H O F E R I N S T I T U T E F O R S YS T E MS A N D IN N OVATION R ESEA R C H ISI Batteries for electric cars: Fact check and need for action Batteries for electric cars: Fact check and need for action Are batteries for electric cars the key to sustainable mobility in the future? Authors Axe

2、l Thielmann, Martin Wietschel, Simon Funke, Anna Grimm, Tim Hettesheimer, Sabine Langkau, Antonia Loibl, Cornelius Moll, Christoph Neef, Patrick Pltz, Luisa Sievers, Luis Tercero Espinoza, Jakob Edler Karlsruhe, January 2020 www.isi.fraunhofer.de4 | 5 Overview and core statements When looking at the

3、 main questions along the entire battery value chain, it becomes clear that there are no insurmountable obstacles that could prevent the widespread market diffusion of battery-electric passenger cars, particularly during the decisive ramp-up phase between 2020 and 2030+. However, numerous technologi

4、cal, economic, ecological, regulatory and societal challenges still need to be tackled in the coming decade. The most important findings are summarized below, followed by a more detailed description in the individual chapters. 01 Do electric cars have a better environ- mental footprint than conventi

5、onal passenger cars? The electric cars sold in Germany today have a much bet- ter greenhouse gas emissions balance than conventional passenger cars over their entire service life, if the energy transition progresses as planned. Their climate footprint and environmental performance can be further imp

6、roved through energy-efficient battery production that is focused on renewable energy sources, more renewable power used for charging and driving, and a closed-loop resource cycle. Like all passenger cars, however, electric cars also have negative environmental impacts, so that transform- ing the tr

7、ansport sector must also involve changed mo- bility behavior (fewer and smaller vehicles, fewer trips). More information on page 11 02 What measures can improve the social and environmental impacts? Extracting the raw materials and producing technical components are associated with ecological and so

8、cial risks regardless of the drive technology used. These risks vary in their severity depending on how weak the legislation and state institutions are in the respective countries. The impacts of battery production and resource extraction represent ecological hotspots in the value creation chain of

9、electric cars. International initiatives with regard to corporate due diligence obligations including their legal framework are sen- sible starting points. Improved conditions can be achieved by management and support and not by relocating production. More information on page 12 03 Do we have enough

10、 global resources? From a global point of view, the raw materials required for batteries like lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese and graph- ite are available in sufficient quantities. The development towards low-cobalt and nickel-rich high-energy batteries will further relieve the pressure on the re

11、source situation for cobalt. The situation concerning lithium is uncritical, but there are still uncertainties about nickel. Temporary shortages or supply bottlenecks or price increases cannot be ruled out in the short to medium term for individual raw materials. For lithium, more advanced recycling

12、 processes on an industrial scale will become increasingly important in the future. More information on page 13 04 What factors are important for com- petitive battery cell production? Access to affordable raw materials and components for batteries will continue to be decisive for competition in the

13、 future as well. It is also important that costs decrease for plants, equipment and labor; this can be achieved through economies of scale as well as energy-efficient and automated production (with smart control for example). The experience of Asian producers here gives them an obvious advantage, an

14、d European and German manufac- turers will have to compensate for this through learning effects and interim additional costs. Unique selling points that are decisive for competition could be created in the future by higher energy densities, rapid charging capaci- ties, lower costs and sustainable pr

15、oduction (for example, by using renewable energy sources for production). More information on page 14 www.isi.fraunhofer.de6 | 7 05 Will the diffusion of electric mobility mean job losses? Although there are different assessments of the employ- ment effects in the automobile industry and its supplie

16、rs, the majority reckon with a significant drop in employment in Germany. Battery cell production itself is highly automated, which is why its positive employment effects are limited. However, there are relevant employment effects resulting from upstream and downstream value chains. There are likely

17、 to be positive employment effects in other areas such as elec- tricity generation or the construction of charging infrastruc- ture. Regions and companies that rely on internal combustion engine powertrains and that are particularly affected by structural change must develop a sustainable business a

18、nd employment model. If required, they must be supported by proactive industrial and employment policy measures so that, combined with the natural age fluctuation struc- tural change can be shaped in a socially compatible way. More information on page 15 06 Will there be supply bottlenecks along the

19、 value creation chain? Today, there are already various reasons for isolated tem- porary supply bottlenecks along the value chain. Examples include the raw materials needed for batteries and cell production and the production and distribution of electric cars. The companies are aware of these and co

20、unteract the risks by diversifying their suppliers, for example, through strategic industrial cooperation along the value chain, research cooperation, joint ventures and in-house produc- tion. These efforts are supported by the government, and this coordinated approach should not be changed in the f

21、uture in order to reduce the industrys supply dependency. More information on page 16 07 How will batteries develop and what ranges can we expect? In the last ten years, the energy density of the large lith- ium-ion batteries (LIB) used in electric cars has almost doubled to an average of 200Wh/kg o

22、r 400Wh/l today. The energy density (especially the volumetric density) could double again by 2030, provided that the major R the focus here is on a higher energy density to achieve greater ranges and simultaneous cost reduction. Stan- dard dimensions have now been defined for the installation space

23、 that make the requirements for volumetric energy den- sity even more stringent. This must be increased to accommo- date a larger battery capacity in the same amount of space in the future. The cost reduction aims to lower the total costs of electric vehicles. In addition, vehicle batteries should h

24、ave fast charging capability in the future so that a BEV can be charged in just a few minutes using a DC charging cable. The minimum requirement for battery life is sufficient to cover 150,000 to 200,000 kilometers, roughly equivalent to 1,000 full cycles. Increasing battery capacities and large ran

25、ges per charge could lead to relaxing the requirements for battery cycle life in the future 47. It is not yet possible to draw reliable conclusions about the calendar life of the battery beyond the typical war- ranty period of 10 years. All types of battery formats (cylindrical, prismatic, and pouch

26、) and all the main cell chemistries (NCA, NMC, LMO, LFP) are installed in todays electric cars. In the coming years, cell manufacturers worldwide plan to increasingly use nickel-rich high-energy cathodes and anodes (Si/C composite). In the medium term, high capacity NMC materials (for example, lith-

27、 ium-rich “integrated composites”) or high-voltage materials promise even higher energy densities 47. This should make it possible for conventional cells to increase up to 350Wh/ kg 85 or to over 800Wh/l 86 (for example by pre-lithiating anode materials). Lithium metal anodes could make the ultimate

28、 energy density increase feasible (more than 1,000Wh/l or about 400Wh/ kg 87). However, using these could require the application of solid electrolytes, and thus technologies which are not yet commercially available. On a laboratory scale, solid-state batteries are already achieving impressive energ

29、y densities that makes them very interesting for automobile applications. With regard to production processes and stability, however, major R Neef, C.; Fenske, C.; Wietschel, M. (2018): Energiespeicher-Monitoring 2018. Leitmarkt- und Leitanbieter- studie: Lithium-Ionen-Batterien fr die Elektromobili

30、tt (Karls- ruhe: Fraunhofer-Institut fr System- und Innovationsforschung ISI) 2 Agora Verkehrswende (2019): Klimabilanz von Elektroautos: Einflussfaktoren und Verbesserungspotenzial 3 ICCT (2018): Effects of battery manufacturing on electric vehicle life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions. Briefing. Int

31、er- national Council on Clean Transportation, https:/theicct.org/ publications/EV-battery-manufacturing-emissions (last checked 20 Nov 2019) 4 Joanneum Research (2019): Geschtzte Treibhausgasemis- sionen und Primrenergieverbrauch in der Lebenszyklusana- lyse von Pkw-basierten Verkehrssystemen. (Graz

32、: Joanneum Research) 5 Wietschel, M.; Khnbach, M.; Rdiger, D. (2019a): Die aktuelle Treibhausgasemissionsbilanz von Elektrofahrzeugen in Deutschland (Working Paper Sustainability and Innovation No. S 02/2019) (Fraunhofer ISI) 6 Wietschel, M.; Timmerberg, S.; Ashley-Belbin, N.; Moll, C.; Oberle, S.;

33、Lux, B.; Neuling, U.; Kaltschmitt, M. (2019b): Klimabilanz, Kosten und Potenziale verschiedener Kraft- stoffarten und Antriebssysteme fr Pkw und Lkw: Endbericht, gefrdert vom Biogasrat+ e.V. (Fraunhofer ISI) 7 Regett, A.; Mauch, W.; Wagner, U. (2019): Klimabilanz von Elektrofahrzeugen Ein Pldoyer fr

34、 mehr Sachlichkeit, https:/www.ffe.de/themen-und-methoden/ressourcen-und- klimaschutz/856-klimabilanz-von-elektrofahrzeugen-ein-plae- doyer-fuer-mehr-sachlichkeit (last checked 21 Nov 2019) 8 VW (2019): Klimabilanz von E-Fahrzeugen Dahllf, L. (2019): Lithium-Ion Vehicle Battery Production (C 444) (I

35、VL Swedish Environmental Research Insti- tute) 10 Bauer, C.; Hofer, J.; Althaus, H.-J.; Del Duce, A.; Simons, A. (2015): The environmental performance of current and future passenger vehicles: Life cycle assessment based on a novel scenario analysis framework, Applied Energy 157, 87183 11 Helms, H.;

36、 Jhrens, J.; Kmper, C.; Giegrich, J.; Liebich, A. (2016): Weiterentwicklung und vertiefte Analyse der Umwelt- bilanz von Elektrofahrzeugen (Texte 27/2016) (Umweltbundes- amt) 12 Groneweg, M.; Weis, L. (2018): Weniger Autos, mehr globa- le Gerechtigkeit Diesel, Benzin, Elektro: Die Antriebstechnik al

37、lein macht noch keine Verkehrswende (Misereor, Brot fr die Welt Whoriskey, P. (2016): Tossed aside in the white gold rush. Indigenous people are left poor as tech world takes lithium from under their feet (The Washington Post) 15 BGR Die BGR-Commodity TopNews 53 (2017): Kobalt aus der DR Kongo Poten

38、ziale, Risiken und Bedeutung fr den Kobaltmarkt, https:/www.bgr.bund.de/DE/Gemeinsames/ Produkte/Downloads/Commodity_Top_News/Rohstoffwirt- schaft/53_kobalt-aus-der-dr-kongo.html (last checked 19 Nov 2019) 16 Angerer, G.; Marscheider-Weidemann, F.; Wendl, M.; Wietschel, M. (2009): Lithium fr Zukunft

39、stechnologien. Nachfrage und Angebot unter besonderer Bercksichtigung der Elektromobilitt (Karlsruhe: Fraunhofer ISI) 17 Umbrella-Arbeitsgruppe Ressourcenverfgbarkeit (2011): Ressourcenverfgbarkeit von sekundren Rohstoffen Poten- zialanalyse fr Lithium und Kobalt: Umbrella-Arbeitsgruppe Ressourcenve

40、rfgbarkeit im Rahmen der durch das Bundes- ministerium fr Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit gefrderten Projekte LithoRec und LiBRi (BMUB) 18 Reuter et al. (2014): Conference on Future Automo- tive Technology (CoFAT), Future Ressource Availability for the Production of Lithium-Ion Vehicle Bat

41、teries, https:/ 24 | 25 References and comments tion/263888647_COFAT_2014_Future_Resource_Availabi- lity_for_the_Production_of_Lithium-Ion_Vehicle_Batteries/ links/53fdcd430cf2dca800039068.pdf (last checked 21 Nov 2019) 19 Thielmann, A.; Sauer, A.; Wietschel, M. (2015): Gesamt- Roadmap Lithium-Ionen

42、-Batterien 2030 (Karlsruhe: Fraun- hofer-Institut fr System- und Innovationsforschung ISI) 20 Buchert, M.; Degreif, S.; Dolega, P. (2017): Strategien fr die nachhaltige Rohstoffversorgung der Elektromobilitt. Syn- thesepapier zum Rohstoffbedarf fr Batterien und Brennstoff- zellen: Studie im Auftrag

43、von Agora Verkehrswende (Berlin, Darmstadt: ko-Institut) 21 ko-Institut e.V (2018): Elektromobilitt Faktencheck, https:/www.oeko.de/publikationen/p-details/elektromobilitaet- faktencheck/ (last checked 21 Nov 2019) 22 Comment: This is likely to lead to a global demand of 150- 200 GWh for xEV in 2020

44、 (250-350 GWh LIB in total), 700- 1,200 GWh for xEV in 2025 (1,000-1,500 GWh LIB in total) and 2,000-4,000 GWh for xEV in 2030 (3,000-5,000 GWh LIB in total). 23 Dolega, P. (2019): Rohstoffszenarien fr die Elektromobilitt. Aktuelle Prognosen geben Aufschluss ber den Rohstoffbedarf der Elektromobilit

45、t und das Recyclingpotential zur Bedarfsbe- friedigung, ReSource, 915 24 Weil, M.; Ziemann, S.; Peters, J. (2018): The Issue of Metal Resources in Li-Ion Batteries for Electric Vehicles. Behaviour of Lithium-Ion Batteries in Electric Vehicles 25 Comment: The primary material demand around 2030 is li

46、kely to be 250,000-450,000 tonnes for lithium (only for electric cars) (higher than in previous studies), 250,000-420,000 tonnes for cobalt (comparable, because the effects of demand development and cobalt reduction offset each other) and 1.3-2.4 million tonnes for nickel (much higher because of the

47、 combined effect of demand development and nickel-rich systems). 26 USGS (2019): Lithium: https:/www.usgs.gov/media/files/ lithium-mcs-2019-data-sheet; Cobalt: https:/www.usgs.gov/ media/files/cobalt-mcs-2019-data-sheet; Nickel: https:/www. usgs.gov/media/files/nickel-mcs-2019-data-sheet 27 Comment:

48、 Fraunhofer ISI calculations assuming a future recy- cling rate of up to 25-50 percent. 28 Schwierz, P. (2019): CATL legt Erfurter Batteriewerk fr bis zu 100 GWh aus, erfurter-batteriewerk-fuer-bis-zu-100-gwh-aus/ (last checked 21 Nov 2019) 29 Comment: CATL 100GWh, LG Chem 70 GWh, Samsung SDI 20 GWh

49、, SKI 7,5+X GWh, Envision/ AESC 8,2 GWh, Tesla with cells possibly from CATL or LG, SVOLT 24 GWh, Farasis 10 GWh, Microvast 6 GWh as well as other less specific an- nouncements by BYD and GS Yuasa. 30 Eckl-Dorna, W. (2019): Sechs Antworten zu Teslas deutschem Riesenwerk, https:/www.manager-magazin.de/unternehmen/ autoindustrie/elon-musk-6-antworten-zu-teslas-elektroauto- werk-in-gruenheide-bei-