《VTT：2024企业前瞻力构建——打造未来就绪的商业战略指南（英文版）（105页）.pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《VTT：2024企业前瞻力构建——打造未来就绪的商业战略指南（英文版）（105页）.pdf（105页珍藏版）》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。

1、1Chapter name hereGuidebookfor organisingContentsINTRODUCTION.5How to make strategic foresight your companys superpower.6How to use this book .7WHY DO WE NEED FORESIGHT?.8Why this topic?.9Challenge description .10Case:Nestes reasons for establishing a foresight unit.12Literature resources .14SEEING

2、THE UNSEEN .15Why this topic?.16Challenge description .17Case:Tamro-Foresight in action .18Informed decisions .19Key learnings .20Literature resources .21FROM FORESIGHT TO ACTIONABLE INSIGHT .22Why this topic .23Challenge description .24Making the future tangible with a Future press release .25Case:

3、Amazons Press release approach .26Uncover future signals in the past with Progression curves .27Key learnings .29Literature resources .30FINDING MOONSHOT IDEAS WITH STRATEGIC FORESIGHT.31Why this topic?.32Challenge description .33Reading hard sci-fi .34Using what if?prompts.35Case:What if?posters fr

4、om ARPA-H .36Key learnings .37Literature resources .38ORGANIZING SYSTEMATIC FORESIGHT.40Why this topic .41Challenge description .42Multiple organising models for corporate foresight.43Executive team-led model .44Function-driven model.45Independent foresight unit .46Platform-based model .47Key learni

5、ngs .49Literature resources .50CULTIVATING A FUTURES-LITERATE ORGANISATION CULTURE .51Why this topic .52Challenge description .53Case:KONE is building futures together .55Discovering the power of foresight at the heart of business .56Key learnings .58Literature resources .59FUTURE CUSTOMERS .60Why t

6、his topic?.62Challenge description .63Case:Customer foresight within a cluster .65VTT Consumer futures cone .66Profiling forerunners .68Key learnings .69Literature resources .71BUILDING FUTURES BY NETWORKED FORESIGHT .72Why this topic .73Challenge description .74Solving networked foresight .76Case:A

7、nticipating and exploring future disruptions .78Case:Shaping and driving innovation .79Case:Making sense of the potential of radical new technology .80Case:Building business scenarios in the construction industry .81Key learnings .82Literature resources .84FORESIGHT AND FIRM PERFORMANCE .85Why this

8、topic .86Challenge description .87Work with KPIs .88Use impact framework .89Key learnings .91Literature resources .92FORESIGHT AS A CATALYST FOR ACTION .94Effective foresight turns future visions into strategic actions .95Endnotes .96Acknowledgements.97References.98Glossary.101Writers .1035Chapter n

9、ame hereIntroductionTiina Apilo,Antti-Jussi Tahvanainen6IntroductionIf youve opened this guide,you already know that stra-tegic foresight can empower your organisation with the approaches and tools to be prepared,agile,and resil-ient for the future.Someone recommended that you ex-plore this topic.Ei

10、ther way,youre in the right place.No matter what stage of your companys foresight journey you are currently at,we have created a guidebook for organisations like yours to further develop and enhance their foresight capabilities,ensuring the organisation is future-proof.Grounded in the latest researc

11、h and co-created along-side pioneering companies,this book offers a practical path forward.Through numerous real-world examples,youll discover the practices that leading organisations use across various areas of foresight,reassuring you that you can apply this knowledge effectively.The first three c

12、hapters focus on the benefits of having a future-oriented mindset and integrating foresight into decision-making.In Chapter Four,we take a giant leap or at least a moon-shot as we learn how to leverage foresight to uncover ideas for radical innovation.Chapters Five and Six fo-cus on organisingsystem

13、atic foresight and involving the entire organisation in foresight practices.The follow-ing two chaptersshow how to include stakeholdersin your foresight activities,such as anticipating customers future needs and collaborating with networksfor fore-sight.Chapter Nine covers methods for demonstrating

14、the impact of foresight on C-level executives.Finally,the last chapter summarises the key takeaways from the book and includes a glossary of new concepts.Why foresight mattersFor business leaders,managers,strategists,or anyone interested in the future of their organizationResearch-based knowledge on

15、 how to navigate to the futureReal-world examples bring the concepts to lifeHow to make strategic foresight your companys superpower7IntroductionHow to use this bookFeel free to browse the chapters,focusing on the perspec-tives that are new and most relevant to you.Each chapter follows the same stru

16、cture to make navigation easier:1.WHY THIS TOPIC:An explanation of the chapters topic and its importance in the broader con-text of strategic foresight.2.CHALLENGES:The key obstacles or questions organi-sations face in this area.3.EXAMPLES AND SOLUTIONS:Real-world case studies and potential approach

17、es to address the challenges.4.KEY LEARNINGS:A summary of the most important take-aways to remember.Dive deeper into new topics and explore further with the curated reading recom-mendations at the end of each chapter.8Chapter name hereWhy do we need foresight?Pauli Komonen,Sofi Kurki,Jyri Rkman9Why

18、do we need foresight?The rationale for engaging in foresightMake a case for initiating foresight activities A company story about establishing a foresight unitWhy this topic?In a world constrained by resource scarcity,why should we invest in foresight?An accumulating body of evidence demonstrates th

19、at strategic foresight is an increasingly valuable capability for navigating the uncertain and com-plex business environment of our times.However,initiat-ing foresight activities is not always straightforward,and not everyone agrees on the need for it.Short-term effi-ciency is often preferred over l

20、ong-term exploration.This chapter advocates for the use of foresight.It dis-cusses the starting points and rationale for engaging in foresight activities,and briefly addresses their value,uses and visionary potential.The chapter does not offer solu-tions,however that is the purpose of the remainder

21、of this book.Included is a case study of a company that recently es-tablished a foresight unit.It illustrates why a particular company in the energy sector regarded foresight as a strategic asset for long-term innovation,competitiveness,and a company-wide understanding of critical trends.10Why do we

22、 need foresight?Challenge descriptionUnderstanding the role of foresight in a complex worldSeeing foresight as a competence,not a toolsetAcknowledging when and where foresight is neededBridging the gap from fuzzy front end to impactWe could simply pinpoint trends in historical data and project them

23、into the future.In this scenario,the future would simply be an extension of the present.Conducting strategic foresight would be easier in a more stable world.Fortunately,there are tools and method-ologies available for managing present uncertainty and complexity.Although we cant predict the future,w

24、e can systematically explore various plausible future tra-jectories and options.The uncertainty wont vanish,but coping with it becomes better informed,which ultimate-ly allows for better decisions and actions.Anticipated changes in the business environment require changes in the ways business is don

25、e.Numerous characterizations capture the turbulent na-ture of the current operating environment.For instance,VUCA,an acronym standing for volatility,uncertainty,complexity,and ambiguity,has been used for decades1.Its continued relevance is hard to dispute,yet it can be expanded from different perspe

26、ctives.Another ac-ronym,BANI,describes the world as brittle,anxious,nonlinear and incomprehensible.In all of the contem-porary characterizations,the world is something other than stable,peaceful and predictable.In recent years,the term polycrisis has rapidly gained traction.A polycrisis signifies a

27、situation in which mul-tiple global systems become causally entwined in ways that significantly threaten our prospects2.The intercon-nected crises cause issues greater than the sum of the crises would create in isolation.A polycrisis situation may cause widespread disruptions in food,energy,and trad

28、e systems,causing these systems to become more fragile and less resilient.The world is in flux;that goes without saying.The com-plexity of change,however,is unforeseen.It is a key jus-tification for foresight work.If everything were linear and predictable,there would be no need for system-atic fores

29、ight that considers multiple possible futures.We are on the cutting edge of the energy and technology transformation.The change during the past 15 years is not the same we are seeing now.We need foresight and we are working on it.Product Development Director,Valtra11Why do we need foresight?Futures

30、studies have suggested that we are living in post-normal times3.Postnormality is defined by complexity and uncertainty,along with chaos and contradictions.In a postnormal world,old orthodoxies are dying,new ones have yet to emerge,and things seemingly make no sense4.The only tools to cope with compl

31、exity,contradictions,and chaos may be imagination and creativity.Postnormal times also question the extent to which we can control and manage things,or whether these mental frameworks remain valid at all.Despite the crises-ridden times,the visionary potential of foresight can inspire more desirable,

32、plausible,and achievable futures.The ability to envision better futures enables action in the present moment.Consequently,foresight informs and creates agency the ability to have a proactive role in shaping the future.Here,perhaps,emerges the most typical bottleneck in the use of foresight:its appli

33、cability.To effect change,fore-sight must speak the language of the top management.Foresight professionals have to understand the perspec-tive of the users of the information.The information has to be packaged and delivered in a business-relevant,ac-tionable and concisemanner.When shared frequently,

34、the futures literacy of the whole organization begins to transform.Foresight has many uses.Classically,it supports the early stages of strategy and innovation processes.However,its utility goes well beyond these two company functions.In our research5,we discovered that foresight is per-ceived as alm

35、ost equally important across a broad range of essential company functions,such as sustainability,procurement,manufacturing,and marketing.In addition,foresight was considered useful for nearly all kinds of de-cision-making situations,such as go-to-market decisions,investment decisions,and capacity pl

36、anning.In order to appreciate the many benefits of foresight,at-tention should be paid to assessing its value.Foresight can be evaluated by assessing a companys overall foresight maturity and reflecting it against the companys financial performance6.Quantitative measures of innovation are a common t

37、ool for understanding how foresight affects the company.In Chapter 9,we present a novel approach based on multi-criteria evaluation that seeks to capture the value of foresight for different business objectives.In times of uncertainty and volatility,the top management typically relies on tried and t

38、ested practices that help mi-nimise damage to the key indicators that investors and other key stakeholders follow.More often than not,it re-quires cutting costs in the short run.If foresight has been seen solely as a part of the fuzzy front end of innovation,the cost-cutting frenzy might leave compa

39、nies lacking the instruments and capabilities for finding the next growth cycle.There is an option:Foresight is not seen as a supernatu-ral skill possessed by only a few people in the innovation department but an integrated part of and a requirement in selected business areas that are seen to influe

40、nce the future paths of the company the most.The ability to envision better futures enables action in the present moment.12Why do we need foresight?Neste has a long history of utilising foresight as part of its business development.Its roots lie in strategic think-ing at the executive level.In 2019,

41、Neste established its own foresight unit to support innovation,long-term competitiveness,and company-wide awareness of fu-ture trends.There are numerous reasons why Neste adopts a long-term perspective.Not only are investment cycles ex-tensive,but Nestes field of business is also at the fore-front o

42、f transformation.It is widely acknowledged that change is inevitable.The magnitude of these changes is vast,and the time horizon is extensive.Foresight pro-vides the tools necessary to comprehend the bigger picture.The rationale for investing in foresight at Neste stems from the companys high level

43、of ambition,aiming for world-class performance.Innovation is central to the business in the long term,with foresight seen as a key element of this strategy.The initial goal in establishing a specific foresight function at Neste was to support innovation and to identify and develop novel business are

44、as,thereby future-proofing the company.Although innovation was the primary focus initially,it was evident from the outset that foresight was needed throughout the organisation.While there are many potential approaches to integrat-ing foresight into a company,at Neste,it is believed that having an in

45、-house function for foresight is best suit-ed for fostering company-specific understanding and strengthening the connection between foresight and other key analytical functions within the company.How-ever,Nestes approach to foresight keeps constantly evolving,and the next phase in Nestes foresight d

46、evel-opment is to increase its impact on strategy.Case:Nestes reasons for establishing a foresight unitForesight provides the tools necessary to comprehend the bigger picture.Foresight has many uses.Classically,it supports the early stages of strategy and innovation processes.However,its utility goe

47、s well beyond these two company functions.14Why do we need foresight?Build a future-proof company by establishing the four cornerstones of transformative corporate foresight.Malmelin,N.,Pihlajamaa,M.,&Komonen,P.(2021).Building a future-proof companyFour cornerstones of transformative corporate fore-

48、sight.The European Business Review.(March-April 2021).Learn the mindset of a futurist.Webb,A.(2017).The Flare and focus of success-ful futurists.MIT Sloan Management Review.Understand the essential approaches of strategic foresight in theory and practice.Schwarz,J.O.(2023).Strategic foresight:An In-

49、troductory guide to practice.Routledge.Prove the value of strategic foresight.Buder,F.(2021).The value of foresight in a VUCA world:Results from a survey of organizational foresight capacity.Literature resources15Chapter name hereSeeing the unseenKalle Kantola,Maaria Nuutinen16Seeing the unseenWhy t

50、his topic?Business leaders and managers make hundreds of decisions every day from strategic to tactical to op-erational.Decisions are often based on limited infor-mation,guided by previous experiences.These experi-ences can be detrimental or biased,sometimes leading to wrong decisions.This is the ca

51、se,especially in un-foreseen situations,uncertain business environments,and long-term decisions.Currently,the global business environment exhibits all these traits,and thus,reliable,relevant,and unbiased information is highly beneficial for decision-makers.Foresight tools and practices can provide t

52、his kind of information.Foresight helps decision-makers see unseen informa-tion for making both shortand long-term decisions.Implementing foresight practices does not require a large investment,but certain basic requirements must be met for effective rollout.Foresight thinking helps the organization

53、s management become more future-ori-ented,benefiting business development and other func-tions in the long term.More objective insights for decisionsCost-effective implementationEnhanced future focusFostering a growth mindset17Seeing the unseenChallenge descriptionDecision-making in a complex enviro

54、nment Pitfalls for experienced decision-makersOrganisational cognitive barriers Taking foresight into actionBusiness management is continuously making decisions-either operational or strategic.Naturally,decision-mak-ers would like to use all available information to make the best decision possible.I

55、n reality,decisions are al-ways made based on limited and uncertain information in a complex environment-And the more experience the decision maker has,the more they can rely on their existing mental models,i.e.use the information and ex-perience unaccessible to the less experienced deci-sion makers

56、.These models usually lead to reasonable outcomes but have limitations,especially when facing a new type of situation or operating environment.Expe-rience-based mental models can also be detrimental as they can be biased and influence decisions.Research7 has shown that organizations have“cogni-tive

57、barriers”that prevent them from perceiving and acknowledging weak signals and other indicators,as these do not fit the mental models of decision-makers.This can cause organizations to stick to their current way of doing business rather than proactively seeking opportunities for potential changes in

58、operating envi-ronments.As a result,they may miss out on opportuni-ties and be forced to react to market changes.Most organizations can recognize some forms of cog-nitive barriers in their operations.For example8,deci-sion-makers tend to push the world into their frames(mental filters),are too confi

59、dent and believe that their view is correct(overconfidence),cherry pick informa-tion that confirms their view(confirmation bias),and feel more confident in belonging to the majority in their views(group thinking),etc.All these are natural be-haviour models,which also have a lot of value in deci-sion

60、-making.They can become blind spots,however,if not recognized.The following case study describes how foresight is tak-en into action by pharmaceutical distributor Tamro Ltd.and how that has helped the company drive its business.Within any organization,there are cognitive barriers that hinder our abi

61、lity to perceive and acknowledge weak signals.18Seeing the unseenTamros mission is centred on delivering health,and it has a notable impact,supplying nearly 60%of all phar-maceuticals to hospitals,pharmacies,and retail outlets across Finland.In addition to its core services,it offers data-driven sol

62、utions,sales and marketing services,and digital home care solutions.Amidst a landscape of constant change and stringent regulations,where policy shifts and consumer behaviour can significantly disrupt operations,Tamro recognizes the necessity of adaptation and anticipation.To navigate this dynamic e

63、nvironment effectively,the company has systematically fostered a future-oriented mindset across various functions.They have actively sought better methods to integrate foresight into dai-ly decision-making processes.To gain insight into how different functions make decisions,they asked multiple deci

64、sion-makers about their daily,weekly,and yearly decisions and the information they use in current de-cision-making.This helped them identify the needs and foresight requirements of different decision-makers.Furthermore,decision-makers have been asked about what future information would help them mak

65、e better decisions,allowing foresight development to be driven by a clear and directly actionable purpose as well as to naturally integrate into the decision-making processes.Moreover,Tamro has fostered a culture of collaboration by organizing events aimed at engaging stakeholders in collectively in

66、terpreting anticipated changes within the industry.Currently,the company is focused on finding solutions to streamline the accumulation of future insights into easily digestible,data-based formats for everyday use.This lean approach ensures that foresight is not merely a theoretical exercise but a p

67、ractical tool that informs actionable strategies and decisions in real time.Tamro cultivates a future-oriented mindset across functions to navigate the dynamic environment effectively.Case:Tamro-Foresight in action19Seeing the unseenForesight can be used to overcome cognitive biases and support deci

68、sion-making.It can be used in both short-and long-term decisions as it provides a toolbox that makes essential information about past and future developments available.This helps deal with new un-certain situations and reduces the potential biases of mental models of individuals and cognitive barrie

69、rs of organizations.This is especially useful for big,challeng-ing decisions that have a long-term impact and need to consider transformational changes in the operat-ing environment.However,foresight can also support shorter-term operational decisions in uncertain envi-ronments.Foresight is not a si

70、lver bullet that solves everything;it has various limitations.Foresight is also a term that is broadly used and has different meanings.From a prac-tical point of view,foresight combines a future-orient-ed mindset and a set of practical tools for information generation and exploitation.While the futu

71、re-oriented mindset can be applied widely,the foresight tools must be selected based on the target.Digitalized business-es,increased data availability,and advances in AI have generated new data-driven foresight tools for different purposes.This does not change the fact that we cannot predict the fut

72、ure,but they have made foresight more effective.We can now analyse weak signals,trends,and business decisions more effectively and even simulate them.Therefore,foresight implementation should not be driven by the tools but by business reasons.As each tool has limitations,the decision-makers should a

73、lways validate the information and reflect on their perception.By doing so,one can get the best out of foresight infor-mation and peoples experiences.Implementing foresight can be a manageable invest-ment.The critical issue is to identify the areas and sit-uations where one can benefit from better i

74、nformation about future development and changes.The most suit-able practices can be created based on the concrete needs to get that information.By this,the organization recognizes the value of foresight and can use that infor-mation in practice.As a side effect,the organizations management is becomi

75、ng more future-oriented and un-derstands their cognitive barriers,which benefits busi-ness development and other functions in the long term.Solution exampleInformed decisionsImplementing foresight does not require a large investment.20Seeing the unseen1234Key learnings Foresight counters cognitive b

76、iases and aids deci-sion-making for short-and long-term goals.It equips decision-makers with crucial insights into past and fu-ture developments,facilitating adaptation to uncertain situations while mitigating individual mental biases and organizational cognitive barriers.Particularly beneficial for

77、 significant,long-term decisions amid evolving envi-ronments,foresight also proves invaluable for short-er-term operational choices in uncertain conditions.Foresight is a partial solution and comes with limitations.Practically,its a blend of a forward-looking perspective and practical tools for gath

78、ering and using information.While the future-oriented mindset is broadly applica-ble,the choice of foresight tools depends on the spe-cific objectives.Digitalized businesses,increased data availability,and AI advancements have ushered in new data-driven tools that enhance the effectiveness of foresi

79、ght.While we cant predict the future,these tools enable better analy-sis of weak signals,trends,and business decisions,even allowing for simulating the future.However,foresight implementation should prioritize business objectives over tools,acknowledging each tools limitations.Deci-sion-makers must

80、validate information and align it with their perceptions to maximize the value of foresight and experiences.Foresight implementation doesnt demand significant investment.The crucial step is identifying areas where improved future insights are valuable.Tailored practices can then be developed to meet

81、 specific needs,foster-ing an organizations appreciation for foresights value and practical application.Additionally,this process cul-tivates a future-oriented mindset within management,leading to better recognition of cognitive barriers and benefiting long-term business development and other functi

82、ons.Foresight counters biases,guiding decisionsIts a mix of future-oriented mindset and toolsPrioritize business goals over toolsStart implementation by identifying needs21Seeing the unseenLiterature resourcesThis book explores how organizations can im-plement strategic foresight,examining its con-n

83、ections to strategy,innovation,and leadership.It explores the rationale for conducting fore-sight,elucidates mental models,and discuss-es cognitive barriers,drawing from sources for reference.Schwarz,J.O.(2023).Strategic foresight:An In-troductory guide to practice.Routledge.Traditional decision-mak

84、ing studies often use artifi-cial tasks to portray people as biased and unskilled.Gary A.Kleins groundbreaking book is based on a naturalistic approach that focuses on real-life deci-sion-making,emphasizing the integration of intuition and analysis through experience.He supports his theory with exam

85、ples of individuals facing various constraints,like time pressure and high stakes.Klein,G.A.(1999).Sources of power:How peo-ple make decisions.MIT Press.22Chapter name hereFrom foresight to actionable insightTamara Carleton&Antti-Jussi Tahvanainen23From foresight to actionable insightWhy this topicT

86、he use of foresight in decision making helps lead to more favourable outcomes.As the father of modern management Peter Drucker stated once,“You cannot predict the future,but you can create it.”What could be more favourable than to shape the future to ones liking?The renewed discussion on foresight i

87、n the business press and the rise of futurists-in-residence show that companies are keen to harness the actionable power of foresight.Yet how do those in business take advan-tage of foresight knowledge?This chapter discusses how foresight can be used to drive business insights whether to anticipate

88、changing customer needs,stay a step ahead of competitors,or reduce uncertainty in R&D investments and strategies.We consider multiple challenges that hound corporate foresight today,including balancing a long-range outlook with short-term priorities.We then offer some proven ways to convert foresigh

89、t data from activities such as future scenario plans,megatrend research,weak sig-nals reports,and other efforts into actual usable in-sights for business.The business value of foresight for decision-makingThe importance of taking the long view in corporate decisions24From foresight to actionable ins

90、ightA considerable number of companies struggle with capturing value from foresight activities.Despite good intentions,scenario planning reports often end up on the shelves.Trends are fun to know but often hard for project teams to leverage.And foresight groups can become seduced by futurism hype or

91、 esoteric ques-tions,losing sight of business relevance.These symptoms have well-documented root causes.One pernicious challenge is that senior management may give lip service to corporate foresight efforts.Staff dont see or feel that foresight matters to business strat-egy,so any potential insights

92、 arent carried forward into action.Another challenge is that the organizational cul-ture prioritizes short-term results,thwarting long-term foresight attempts.Managers also often lack the knowl-edge and tools to know what to do with foresight input.As a result,meetings tend to stay at the conversati

93、on level,not converting into decision points.All talk and little walk.The real value of foresight lies in developing a deep-er,shared understanding of future alternatives,where preparation is the key to future success.Even when ready,we see many managers lack a con-sistent definition for the term in

94、sight and a systematic approach to identifying and expressing these insights across their teams.Insights are not data,and many in-sights on closer look are simply observations from the field,missing the associated tangible actions or out-comes.The“so what”and“now what”details are lack-ing,making it

95、hard to know how to use that information.On the flip side,with management support,team train-ing and tools,and foresight values deeply embedded into an organizations soul,foresight insights can boost decision making at all levels of an organization.Lets look at how to make this happen.Identifying po

96、tential insights from foresight dataShifting decision timeframes from short-term to long-term outlooksSupporting managers with foresight models and tools geared towards actionIn my 20 years as a decision-maker I have never gotten anything valuable out of foresight.A business decision-makerChallenge

97、description25From foresight to actionable insightMany futurists use imaginary news headlines or hypo-thetical magazine covers set at a far future date because these items provoke others visually and dramatically to consider a different alternate future in very concrete terms.The future press release

98、 takes this concept fur-ther by adopting the format of a traditional media an-nouncement as a team foresight exercise.Now instead of reacting to a future media announcement provided by an expert,the team is responsible for creating the future story themselves.Several benefits result.First,the team b

99、reaks from the constraints of today.They must consider the outcome they want to see at a future date they choose,imagining the result as if it has already happened.This encourag-es them to anchor in a future vision.Second,using a press release format requires teams to consider what is potentially ne

100、wsworthy.This focus typically sparks a discussion about customer value and societal benefit,as a team finds agreement on what they are actually an-nouncing and what will change in the company,market,and world overall.Amazon has long championed this tool with their prod-uct teams and combines the fut

101、ure press release with a Frequently Asked Questions(FAQ)document.Mod-elled after an actual FAQ,their rendition proposes a list of typical questions with corresponding answers based on the press release vision.Their process is described in this chapters case study.Tamara Carleton and William Cockayne

102、 have developed a version called the“Press release from the future”,which is especially useful for radical ideas.In particular,their template recommends three fictional quotes to feature in the release:a quote from a company leader,a quote from a customer or user,and a quote from an exter-nal expert

103、 or community leader.This quote mix encour-ages a team to view their idea from other viewpoints,namely via leadership,customers,and the ecosystem.In addition,Carleton and Cockayne have developed a corresponding“FAQ From the Future”template,which proposes a core set of questions,which are aligned wit

104、h the Four horizons framework,that most teams need to address as they transition across horizons.This refer-ence set helps to accelerate team decision making.A future press release is a fantastic way to foster more visionary thinking and helps a team see what actions to take to get to a desired futu

105、re.Senior managerSolution exampleMaking the future tangible with a Future press release26From foresight to actionable insightAmazon has become one of the top technology com-panies in the world,providing diverse services across e-commerce,cloud computing,online advertising,digi-tal streaming,and arti

106、ficial intelligence.Since the companys early years,a core part of Amazo-nian culture has been a process called“working back-wards”.Teams start by envisioning a desired solution in the future and then determine how to make it hap-pen.This approach makes them think about what the customer wants first,

107、before deciding what features to include in a new product or service.It also helps them understand why they are doing the work,not just how to build and deliver it.The approach has been used for multiple industry-defining solutions,including Kindle,Al-exa,Prime,and Amazon Web Services(AWS).The proce

108、ss has been documented in the book Work-ing Backwards written by two longtime Amazon lead-ers Bill Carr and Colin Bryar.The process begins with the creation of a press release about a breakthrough product or service of the future.The release is usually less than a page and half long and centred arou

109、nd a future customers problem.The tar-get audience are customers,which are either Amazon retail customers or internal users of a technology.Once approved by Amazon management,the press re-lease drives team action.Ian McAllister,a former Am-azon product manager,explains,“Once the project moves into d

110、evelopment,the press release can be used as a touchstone;a guiding light.”9 An FAQ document accompanies a press release.It is written for two audiences:external and internal.The FAQ is a set of tough questions that the team anticipates key stakeholders will ask.Team insights emerge from the process

111、of identifying the key questions and drafting con-cise answers,preparing them for the actual task.Amazon relies on a process called“working backwards”;teams start by envisioning the future solution and then make it happen.Case:Amazons Press release approach27From foresight to actionable insightWhere

112、 Amazons Working backwards approach takes a leap into the future first,the Progression curves tool looks the opposite way to uncover signals about the future in the past.First described in the Playbook for strategic foresight and innovation,at its simplest,Pro-gression curves is a timeline that docu

113、ments events in chronological sequence for a topic of interest such as a business driver,a technology or a societal phenomenon.Foresight lies hidden in the set of events and their time stamps on the curve;you can begin to find patterns in time and frequency.For example,when did the earliest attempts

114、 to achieve a certain technological solution oc-cur?Who led the major precedents that are influencing todays actors?How long did it take to get from inven-tion or pilot to market launch?The data patterns help reveal possible insights.Say your team has developed a solution for telerobotic surgery,and

115、 you want to serve the European market.By scanning a few key papers from an online search,your team can quickly map the industry in broad strokes and discover the key players and their overlapping timelines:You would see an industry seeded by US defence funding and driven mostly by American and Japa

116、nese companies,dominated by a California-based company named Intuitive Surgical.This industry backstory would lead up to recent efforts,including a technical experi-ment in 2024 to perform surgery on the International Space Station(ISS)remotely from earth.This last data point lets you lean into the

117、future:From research and experience,we know that a technology does not jump immediately from the lab into the com-mercial market.Any technology progresses through stages.If you can determine the current stage using Progression curves,you have a reliable expectation of the subsequent stage(s)in its f

118、uture.You have to know the past to understand the future.Carl Sagan,astrophysicistSolution exampleUncover future signals in the past with Progression curves28From foresight to actionable insightIn the case of telerobotic surgery,your team can gauge the state of future competition based on their resp

119、ective next stage of development,and you can estimate likely development cycles based on prior efforts.You can re-flect and ask questions such as:who might we partner with to accelerate solution delivery?Which group has the fastest track record for execution,and what can we learn from their practice

120、s?Which groups are funding which stages of development?Some answers to these questions will be informative,but not necessarily insightful.Other answers will reveal a clear,deep,and sometimes sudden understanding of the situation;these are insights!They become action-able when your team realizes that

121、 they should do some-thing about that knowledge.Advanced users of the Progression curves tool will de-velop multiple curves,layering timelines along key shared dates.In doing so,users can see if events on one curve cause,shift,or spillover onto other curves.Breakthrough solutions today require the c

122、onvergence of multiple technologies and entire ecosystems of actors that drive them.Seeing the big picture of the future requires look-ing across technologies,actors,industries and markets.Source:Tamara Carleton(2024)Voice recognition Large language modelsConsumer products2023MetaLLaMA2017GoogleTran

123、sformerArchitecturemid-2000s?IBM Model 12010StanfordCoreNLP1997NVIDIAGPU2014AmazonAlexa2023MicrosoftCopilot1997LSTM1992STNLPat MIT1990DragonDictate1967Eliza1960sJapanresearch1962IBM demoat World Fair1952Bell LabsAudrey2020OpenAIGPT-32020NVIDIAMegatron2011Google Brain2000sGoogle VoiceSearch,Apple Sir

124、i,Microsoft Cortana1971DARPA speechprogram29From foresight to actionable insight123Key learningsThe use of foresight for driving action-oriented deci-sion-making is too often hampered by its vagueness,a decision-making culture that favours short-term returns over long-term impact,and the lack of sys

125、tematic tools and processes that help structure foresight-related data into actionable opportunities.For decision-makers the tangibility of available infor-mation drives its actionability.Foresight must therefore provide a concrete enough picture of the future that allows to connect alternative choi

126、ces with their respec-tive,clearly defined long-term outcomes.The use of proven tools and processes helps in struc-turing and aggregating future insights into an accessi-ble form.Whether it is about composing a high-reso-lution picture of a breakthrough offering in the far-out future(Future press re

127、lease),or about taking stock of the readily available building blocks for such an offering(Progression curves),foresight tools help to connect information across time horizons with actions to be tak-en today.They support in making sense of mere data points and bits of information and harnessing them

128、 for pro-active strategies that aim to steer the organization towards a desired future.Proven tools help in connecting foresight-based insights with todays decision-making Tangible long-term visions engage internal and external stakeholders for validated decision-making todayThe past teaches about r

129、eadily available building blocks of the future30From foresight to actionable insightThis How to note explores the value of strategic foresight and some of the tools scenario plan-ning and policy gaming in particular employed by the IMF to create it.Behar,A.,&Hlatshwayo,S.(2021).How to imple-ment str

130、ategic foresight(and why).International Monetary Fund.This book provides an insiders view on Amazons foresight practices and decision-making principles for creating success beyond the visible horizon.Bryar,C.,&Carr,B.(2021).Working backwards:insights,stories,and secrets from inside Amazon.St.Martins

131、 Press.A widely popular set of foresight tools for creating radical ideas that become new businesses,prod-ucts,or services.Carleton,T.,Cockayne,W.,&Tahvanainen,A.(2013).Playbook for strategic foresight and inno-vation.Tekes.This seminal article on strategic foresight defines the concept of long-rang

132、e planning,its usefulness and the requirements for its adoption in manage-ment practices.Drucker,P.F.(1959).Long-range planningchal-lenge to management science.Management Sci-ence,5(3),238-249.This article showcases concrete practices in and value of foresight in the public sector by way of explorin

133、g case studies and international bench-mark analyses.Monteiro,B.,&Dal Borgo,R.(2023).Support-ing decision making with strategic foresight:An emerging framework for proactive and prospec-tive governments.OECD Working Papers on Public Governance(No.63).OECD Publishing.Literature resources31Chapter nam

134、e hereFinding moonshot ideas with strategic foresightTamara Carleton&William Cockayne32Finding moonshot ideas with strategic foresightWhy this topic?All types of innovation matter to an organization from incremental to radical.Radical innovation is the com-mercialization of breakthrough ideas,focusi

135、ng on long-term impact.Radical innovation is bigger than disrup-tive innovation,as the latter term is more associated with changing a known business model or when start-ups upset incumbent firms validated by studying how these terms are used in over 1,000 scholarly papers.10 A companys radical innov

136、ation pipeline should include at least one moonshot pursuit.Moonshots are big ideas that aim for a big impact.As bold visions that push the boundaries of what seems possible,moonshots propel teams toward extraordinary achievements.As such,how can companies leverage corporate foresight tools to foste

137、r more moonshot thinking and doing?Understanding the need to foster a moonshot mindsetUsing foresight tools for finding sources of inspiration for radical innovation33Finding moonshot ideas with strategic foresightChallenge descriptionApplication of foresight to radical innovationReliable sources of

138、 moonshot ideas Many crazy business ideas used to come from corpo-rate labs.Looking at the US market as a global bellweth-er,the heyday of American corporate labs was from the 1930s through the 1980s.Once the hub of the US innovation ecosystem,many corporate labs have since been closed,downsized,or

139、redirected towards more applied research.Early-stage innovation work is now done mainly at universities and startups based on anal-ysis by the National Bureau of Economic Research.11 However,by their nature,startups focus on near-term market growth,venture capitalists are less keen to fund deep-tech

140、 sectors and radical ideas,and academic re-searchers prioritize producing scholarly publications over patents and products.These obstacles exist across national borders.Where can companies find big ideas to drive radical innovation today?The two common mechanisms are either hiring exceptional indivi

141、duals who bring their own radical visions or acquiring startups whose work shows a new and wildly promising market.Both mechanisms are scouting exercises that require time and access,which are often in short supply for established organizations.Moreover,human resource managers are not used to hiring

142、 for vision,traditionally focusing on key skills and organizational brands as staff qualifications.Companies usually lean on business incubators and consultants for startup matchmaking services.Fostering moonshot ideas in-house is possible but hard-er and rarer to do.For the last decade,Alphabets mo

143、on-shot factory called X has pushed for bold homegrown ideas from its teams.X teams follow a simple rubric for finding their moonshots.Each moonshot at X must(a)address a huge problem affecting millions or even bil-lions of people,(b)involve a technology breakthrough with expected solutions in the n

144、ext 5-10 years,and(c)rely on a radical,sci-fi sounding solution that may seem impossible today.Yet when big ideas surface as promising opportunities,teams at any company discover that breaking out of project mode becomes the bigger challenge.Different skills are needed on the team to ship these idea

145、s from tech to market.This is a secondary problem because many company leaders are facing the first problem of knowing where to look for moonshots.Lets look at some ways to address how to start.Where can companies find big ideas to drive radical innovation today?34Finding moonshot ideas with strateg

146、ic foresightSolution example Reading hard sci-fiHard sci-fi is a subgenre of science fiction grounded in scientific accuracy and technical fact.While the tech-nology itself in the story may be speculative,it is based on reality.Many hard sci-fi writers were technically trained.For example,Robert Hei

147、nlein was an aeronau-tical engineer and naval officer,whose work influenced his writing.Liu Cixin who wrote the Three-body prob-lem was an engineer before turning to writing.Stories of hard sci-fi illustrate possible futures or alter-native present situations where technology helps to en-able or und

148、erpin human progress.For those in research or business,these stories can be more than entertain-ment;they can vividly influence decisions from career choices to product visions.In fact,researchers mention sci-fi more often today as an influence than at any pre-vious time,according to a study by Phil

149、ipp Jordan and colleagues.12The Economist editors note three benefits that manag-ers gain when reading sci-fi.13 First,sci-fi is useful as a forward-scanning radar for technological,social and political trends,often revealing near-term biases and concerns shaping our views today.Second,sci-fi helps

150、broaden our perspective when assessing possible future scenarios for corporate planning.Third,sci-fi directly inspires the people who want to make the tech visions come true from cell phones modelled after the“Star Trek”show communicators to the metaverse concept inspired by Neal Stephensons Snow Cr

151、ash novel.As such,every management team should consider hard sci-fi as a source of possible moonshot ideas.Beyond novels and movies,lightweight options exist.We rec-ommend the weekly“Futures”column featuring short stories in the Nature scientific journal to the six-word stories every month in WIRED

152、magazine.35Finding moonshot ideas with strategic foresightSolution example Using what if?promptsother applications.14 What if?prompts are also used to connect foresight thinking with strategic planning.Some groups start with preset questions,while other groups prefer to brainstorm.Examples of preset

153、 questions for groups to complete include:what if _ happens to our customers?Or,what if _ legislation is enacted?Overall,what if?prompts are intended to spark open-end-ed discussion,and a number of prompts can lead to oth-er what if?prompts.This technique is one way to find possible ideas that could

154、 become your next moonshot.Writers like Stephen King uphold the power of what if?for their literary inspiration.Considered the king of hor-ror,King explains why what if?works on his website:“what all of my ideas boil down to is seeing maybe one thing,but in a lot of cases its seeing two things and h

155、av-ing them come together in some new and interesting way,and then adding the question What if?What if is always the key question.”What if?prompts are a classic foresight technique,which starts an imaginative exercise by asking“what if?”.These two words powerfully open up possibility and switch team

156、s from execution to exploration mode.The human brain opens new pathways to find an answer because it doesnt have an existing precedent or example to draw from.As some say,it is daydreaming with a purpose.As we state in our Building Moonshots book,“Imagining a better future is the first step in build

157、ing the solutions that will define it.”For example,Dr.Carmen Hijosa was a serial entrepre-neur working in the Philippines when she discovered that the bulk of pineapple leaves that occurred during harvest every year is burned as waste.Based on her experience developing sustainable materials,she aske

158、d,“What if I make a mesh,not unlike what leather is,with pineap-ple leaf fibres?”What resulted was a high-quality,bio-based leather alternative from pineapple fibres that Hjo-sas company Anam Ltd.now produces for textiles and 36Finding moonshot ideas with strategic foresightARPA-H is a US government

159、 agency that funds trans-formative breakthroughs in biomedical science and hu-man health.When it launched in 2022,ARPA-H intro-duced a what-if poster series.One poster asked:“What if we could make our joints heal themselves?”Another poster asked:“What if your body could make its own medicine?”The ag

160、ency explained,“At ARPA-H,our pursuit of health breakthroughs begins with a deceptively simple question:What if?To reach transformative health solu-tions for everyone,we need to push ourselves to think beyond our current limitations.We need to ask whats missing,what could be,and where could we go?Wh

161、en we ask What if?we bring the impossible into focus.”15The posters were made available to the public to view and download and used at ARPA-H events to spark deeper dialogue across different health R&D communi-ties.As ARPA-H stated on their website,“Imagine with us the solutions that could reach eve

162、ryone who needs them.”Over the subsequent months,multiple posters directly led to new funding programs with a bold vision at their core.When we ask What if?we bring the impossible into focus.Case:What if?posters from ARPA-HWHATIF?37Finding moonshot ideas with strategic foresightKey learningsAs compa

163、nies seek growth,they should remember to build their radical innovation pipeline alongside business as usual.Moonshots are an important element for driving radical innovation,and this chapter discusses how to find moonshot ideas using corporate foresight techniques.One way to find potential moonshot

164、s is to use what if?prompts,which encourage groups to challenge exist-ing assumptions and imagine alternate future scenarios.Serious organizations like ARPA-H have used the what if?prompt to provoke bold thinking across its innova-tion ecosystem.A second way is to read hard science fiction,which are

165、 wildly imaginative stories that involve technology and science.Reading sci-fi offers multiple benefits to man-agers,often giving them new ideas and inspiration to take back into business.Connecting strategic foresight with radical innovationFinding proven sources of inspiration for potential moonsh

166、ots1238Finding moonshot ideas with strategic foresightThis handy and award-winning book describes 50+proven ways to act on radical ideas,including a case study and tips on how to start for each way.Carleton T.&Cockayne,W.(2023).Building moonshots:50+ways to turn radical ideas into reality.Wiley.This

167、 scholarly collection offers a mix of critical analysis,industry case studies,and teaching ex-amples from an international and interdisciplinary group of scholars,practitioners,and mavericks.Carleton,T.,West,S.;&Cockayne,W.R.(Eds.)(2023).Inventing the almost impossible:creating,teaching,funding,and

168、leading radical innovation.Springer.Focused on the power of what if?,this book mixes humour and scientific expertise to explore crazy questions for curious minds.Munroe,R.(2014).What if?:serious scientific answers to absurd hypothetical questions.Dey Street Books.One of the top scholarly journals pu

169、blishes a week-ly science-fiction column called“Futures”that fea-tures short stories from established authors and those just beginning their writing career.“Futures”column.Nature.https:/ is an American technology magazine that publishes monthly stories written in six words on various sci-fi prompts,

170、in the spirit of Ernest Hem-ingways famous challenge for a six-word story.Six-word sci-fi:Stories written by you.WIRED magazine.https:/ resourcesForesight tools can find possible moonshots to drive radical innovation.40Chapter name hereOrganising systematic foresightMatti Pihlajamaa,Pauli Komonen,Ju

171、uli Huuhanmki,Sofi Kurki41Organising systematic foresightWhy this topicIntegrating foresight activities into decision-makingDifferent models for organising foresightSelecting the most suitable organising modelEven the methodologically most proficient companies may struggle to turn their foresight ef

172、forts into compet-itive advantages.Developing a systematic ability to inte-grate foresight into decision-making requires attention to how it is organised.To be effective,foresight must be integrated into the organisations fundamental design and decision-making processes.This chapter explores differe

173、nt models of organising corporate foresight.Organising for corporate foresight includes defining roles and responsibilities as well as building structures and networks.It determines how well a company can develop the right knowledge about potential futures,make it accessible to internal stakeholders

174、,and ensure that someone puts it into practice.This chapter presents four archetypal models compa-nies can use to structure and systematise their fore-sight activities.By examining real-world examples from various companies,we provide insights into how organ-isations can effectively use foresight to

175、 make informed strategic decisions and achieve long-term goals.42Organising systematic foresightChallenge descriptionImportance of organisational design Involvement in foresight activities Legitimisation of foresightCorporate foresight has become a critical tool for busi-nesses to identify and prepa

176、re for potential disruptions and to stay ahead of the competition.However,its effec-tive implementation requires a strategic approach be-yond monitoring trends or identifying weak signals.One of the biggest challenges companies face in managing corporate foresight is how to organise it effectively.T

177、OWARDS EFFECTIVE FORESIGHTWithout proper organisation,foresight activities may not receive adequate attention,resources,or integra-tion with the companys broader strategic goals.Fore-sight work may result in valuable insights,but if these insights are not embedded in decision-making process-es,they

178、may have little impact on the companys future direction.To be effective,foresight insights need to be communicated and translated into action.CHALLENGE OF BALANCINGDifferent organising models each have their strengths and weaknesses.If foresight is too centralised,it may not be responsive enough to

179、the needs of various functions of the organisation or may be disconnected from the companys day-to-day operations.On the other hand,if foresight is too decentralised,it may lack a cohesive vision or direction,and the knowledge generated may not be effectively shared or integrated across different pa

180、rts of the organisation.INVOLVING THE RIGHT PEOPLEAnother challenge is ensuring the right people are in-volved in the foresight process.Companies can eas-ily fall into the trap of only involving high-level execu-tives in corporate foresight.However,this can lead to a lack of diverse perspectives and

181、 a narrow focus on a limited set of future possibilities.Involving a broader range of stakeholders,including employees from differ-ent departments and levels of the organisation,as well as external experts and partners,can help ensure that a companys foresight efforts are more comprehensive and effe

182、ctive.However,this increases the need for co-ordination.SUSTAINED COMMITMENTFinally,a significant challenge in corporate foresight is related to the need for ongoing commitment and re-sources.Foresight work is a long-term investment that requires a sustained commitment of time and resourc-es.The ben

183、efits of foresight may not be immediately visible or tangible,making it difficult for managers to justify the ongoing investment.Without proper organisation,foresight activities may not receive adequate attention43Organising systematic foresightCompanies share many similarities in how they organ-ise

184、 their foresight activities.A common approach is to reach beyond company borders to acquire knowledge.Companies widely use external knowledge sources,such as industry trend reports,to maintain a broad fu-ture outlook.For more specialised and tailored support,consultants are often engaged to enhance

185、internal fore-sight activities,such as workshops,and to contextualise general industry knowledge for the companys specific needs,including insights on themes like regulation and geopolitics.Many also have a separate business intelli-gence or market intelligence unit for gathering and dis-seminating

186、knowledge on relevant topics,occupying a similar role to sourcing external reports.However,these methods alone typically fail to create a systematic foresight capability.More advanced com-panies have developed strategies to ensure that knowl-edge about the future is effectively generated,refined,and

187、 applied.The following pages present four distinct models for organising foresight,each with its respec-tive advantages and drawbacks.These models repre-sent scaffolds for developing mature foresight systems.A company may choose a particular model based on its specific needs and aims.Another may be

188、to deliberately combine elements from various models,leveraging the strengths of one to offset the weaknesses of another.Solution exampleMultiple organising models for corporate foresight44Organising systematic foresightIn the executive team-driven model,the executive lead-ership team is responsible

189、 for organising and conducting foresight.The companys main executives,such as the CEO,direct the foresight work.This model integrates foresight into a companys strategic decision-making.An advantage of this model is that foresight information is produced close to and interpreted by the highest-level

190、 decision-makers.The executives are committed to the foresight process and have the skills and capabilities to lead the work.In the model,the executive team primar-ily considers the implications of the created foresight,while the underlying information is produced by internal specialists and externa

191、l actors such as consultancies.The leaders distribute foresight amongst the organisa-tion through strategic decisions and strategy updates,which can help to create a shared understanding of the outlook towards the future.Overall,the executive team-driven model can be an effective approach for larger

192、 organisations that have a clear hierarchy and decision-making structure.The commitment and involvement of top-level executives ensures that foresight is integrated into the companys strategy and decision-making processes.However,en-suring that the generated foresight is widely distributed throughou

193、t the organisation and formulated as tangi-ble guidelines is important.Otherwise,the insights may remain too general and distant,failing to translate into action.Another potential risk in the executive team-led model is that foresight remains superficial or infrequent.Ex-ecutives may have a limited

194、perspective on the future as they are not exposed to the companys day-to-day operations.Moreover,foresight competes with the scarce attention of the executive team itself and risks getting buried under more urgent work.Therefore,it is crucial to involve other internal and external actors in the fore

195、sight process and to ensure a diverse range of perspectives and insights.Case:PonsseThe Finnish company Ponsse,one of the worlds largest manufacturers of cut-to-length forest machines,employs an exec-utive team-led foresight model.The CEO is responsible for driving the companys scenario planning tog

196、ether with the finan-cial department.The scenarios are mon-itored and updated frequently.Sudden events,such as the war in Ukraine,have led to a reformulation of the scenarios.An external partner feeds information and spars the executive teams foresight efforts.Executive team-led model45Organising sy

197、stematic foresightFunction-driven modelThe function-driven model for organising corporate fore-sight activities involves integrating foresight into a partic-ular company function,such as innovation or strategy.Foresight work in this model is conducted in different functions and departments,typically

198、 by adding foresight responsibilities to existing job roles.Cross-functional foresight groups can be used to enrich emerging insights with complementary perspectives.The results of fore-sight activities can be embedded in documents and ar-tefacts,such as R&D or product roadmaps,which help guide dail

199、y operations.An advantage of the function-driven model is that it can provide a clear objective for the foresight work,which helps organise it and gives it a specific purpose.This mod-el helps to ensure that foresight is inherently applicable and that different actors can organise their work around

200、the functional goal.Additionally,the function-driven mod-el can help companies identify and address future risks and opportunities that are specific to a company func-tion,providing a competitive advantage in the market.However,a challenge of the function-driven model is that the relevance of the fo

201、resight work is typically restricted to a specific functional context,and broader develop-ments in the business environment that do not directly connect with daily decision-making dilemmas or func-tional priorities may be ignored.Combining results from different functions may help broaden the scope

202、of foresight,but it requires coordi-nation and often intensive face-to-face interaction.Insuf-ficient investments in coordination may lead to siloed in-sights that do not benefit the organisation more widely.When the function and the need for foresight are unclear,employees may have trouble deciding

203、 how much time they should dedicate to foresight work versus achieving short-term goals.Case:ValtraValtra,a globally operating Finnish tractor manufacturer,utilises the function-driven model.The primary function of foresight is to support the companys technology road-map,which outlines the companys

204、innova-tion activities and impacts long-term budget planning.The companys product manage-ment owns the roadmap,and various stake-holders supply foresight information for it.The executive team reviews the roadmap frequently.46Organising systematic foresightA separate foresight unit model places fores

205、ight activity within a specific organisational unit,typically staffed by dedicated foresight professionals.These professionals are responsible for conducting foresight work as a pri-mary activity,creating and refining futures knowledge that benefits other parts of the organisation.The work of separa

206、te foresight units can also lead to developing of thought leadership within the organisation.One of the strengths of the separate foresight unit model is that it allows for dedicated time to be spent on foresight work,which often results in being able to conduct in-depth analyses.Professionals with

207、foresight roles also typically have the skills to manage foresight work effectively.This can ensure that the knowledge generated by the foresight unit is of high quality and is useful for other parts of the organisation.At their best,separate foresight units can also bridge different parts of an org

208、anisation together by involving a variety of stakeholders in foresight work.By engaging Independent foresight unitindividuals from different functions,foresight profes-sionals can help to ensure that the futures knowledge generated by the unit is relevant to the entire organisa-tion and can be integ

209、rated into decision-making across the company.As is the case with all the models,the separate foresight unit comes with its own set of challenges.One potential challenge is poor integration between the foresight unit and functions that could benefit from the knowledge.In case of such a disconnect,fo

210、resight activities may not be guided by decision-makers information needs.Additionally,separate foresight units may face the chal-lenge of justifying their existence,especially if foresight is new to the organisation or if other functions do not yet recognise the usefulness of futures knowledge.Rec-

211、ognising the benefit of often largely qualitative foresight work can also be challenging in organisations strongly relying on financial metrics.Case:KONEKONE,a Finnish company,manufactures lifts,escalators,and doors and provides services for their maintenance and mod-ernisation in global markets.The

212、ir foresight unit works on the identification of desired,possible,and probable futures,with the aim to open new areas for innovation,and to un-derstand promising avenues to develop so that the company will be as ready as possi-ble for emerging futures.The foresight unit aims to work in tight collabo

213、ration with the strategy department and different business lines,along with customers and other stake-holders to share and co-create futures rel-evant information across the organisation.47Organising systematic foresightThe platform-based model emphasises the dissemina-tion of future-related knowled

214、ge through a dedicated platform that reaches a broad audience within the or-ganisation.This approach allows multiple sources of in-formation to feed into the platform,including various data,reports,and insights from employees in different parts of the company.By engaging the entire organi-sation,the

215、 platform-based model can benefit multiple functions depending on their requirements.Having a dedicated place for future-related knowledge can also create clarity and ease the dissemination of knowledge,offering a low threshold for people in the organisation to contribute and share even small pieces

216、 of information.A key strength of the platform-based model is its ability to engage the organisation widely.Using of a dedicat-ed channel for future-related knowledge can ease the dissemination of knowledge,creating clarity as people in the organisation know where future-related informa-tion can be

217、shared and accessed.Moreover,the plat-form-based model can help companies identify weak signals in the environment,which can be used to drive innovation or avoid future risks.However,a challenge of the platform-based model is the abundance of knowledge,which can create difficul-ties for people in th

218、e organisation in using the knowledge effectively in decision-making.There is a risk that the platform becomes a”dumpster”of information,which lacks usability,as finding relevant information becomes time-consuming and difficult.In addition,information on the platform can appear as mere data points t

219、hat lack company-specific,readily actionable insights.Thus,com-panies must focus on refining the data and translating the information with specific groups in mind to aid in deploy-ing the information in organisational decision-making.Potentially,an even more significant challenge is the cul-tural ch

220、ange needed for employees to start disseminat-ing and seeking information relevant to their work.This may require organisation-wide activation and training as well as the development of an intuitive,flexible,and mobile interface for the platform.Platform-based modelCase:Orfer Orfer,a robotised mater

221、ial handling systems manufacturer,utilises the platform-based model for the dissemination of future-related knowledge.The platform enables the shar-ing of business environment observations and news across the organisation.Everyone can share even small bits of information that they consider important

222、 and useful for the organisation.48Organising systematic foresightForesight unitDigital platformExecutive teamWIDENINGACCESSTOCOMPANYSPECIFICKNOWLEDGEINCREASINGSTRATEGICRELEVANCETRANSLATINGSTRATEGICRELEVANCEINCREASINGSTRATEGICRELEVANCEIMPROVINGSTRATEGICFORESIGHTQUALITYLOCATINGRELEVANTKNOWLEDGEDRIVIN

223、GCULTURALCHANGEENHANCINGSCOPEANDQUALITYENSURINGBUSINESSINTEGRATIONFunctionFFunctionB.EFunctionAFigure:Synergies between the models49Organising systematic foresightKey learningsWhen systematising foresight,managers should first as-sess where relevant knowledge originates in the organi-sation,who need

224、s it,and how it should be formatted and disseminated to make an impact.Viewing the organisa-tion as a system for managing future-related knowledge can help identify gaps in knowledge flows that reduce the value of existing foresight activities.In developing foresight capabilities,managers should exp

225、lore paths that address their organisations most pressing needs.This might involve promoting broad-based engagement with platforms or deepening foresight through special-ised foresight units,for instance.The choice of an organising model should reflect the organisational context and culture.For inst

226、ance,plat-form-based organising may suit organisations with in-novative cultures and distributed expertise,whereas the executive-led model may better support hierarchi-cal organisations.It is advisable to ensure that future knowledge reaches decision-makers,as the value of foresight may not be initi

227、ally recognised.Once the importance of foresight is established,man-agers can broaden the model to include a wider range of foresight activities and users.The different models have various synergies,as illustrated in the previous page.For example,complementing functional efforts with an independent

228、foresight unit help broaden the range of ideas beyond the usual day-to-day focus and offer the extra support needed for deeper future planning.1The choice of an organising model should reflect the organisational context and culture50Organising systematic foresightAn investigation of aspects that cha

229、racterise a corpo-rate foresight organisation.Battistella,C.(2014).The organisation of corporate foresight:A multiple case study in the telecommuni-cation industry.Technological Forecasting and Social Change,87,60-79.Guidelines for organising“scanning the periphery”in companies.Day,G.S.,&Schoemaker,

230、P.J.(2005).Scanning the periphery.Harvard Business Review,83(11),135.Distinct roles for corporate foresight in supporting inno-vation.Rohrbeck,R.,&Gemnden,H.G.(2011).Corporate foresight:Its three roles in enhancing the innovation ca-pacity of a firm.Technological Forecasting and Social Change,78(2),

231、231-243.An in-depth description of the development and imple-mentation of the corporate foresight unit at Daimler.Ruff,F.(2015).The advanced role of corporate foresight in innovation and strategic managementReflections on practical experiences from the automotive industry.Technological Forecasting a

232、nd Social Change,101,37-48.On the relevance of business environments complexity and dynamism on organising.Vecchiato,R.(2012).Environmental uncertainty,fore-sight and strategic decision making:An integrated study.Technological Forecasting and Social Change,79(3),436-447.Literature resources51Chapter

233、 name hereCultivating a futures-literate organisation cultureSofi Kurki,Maaria Nuutinen,Tiina Apilo52Cultivating a futures-literate organisation cultureWhy this topicTo navigate the volatile,uncertain,complex and am-biguous(VUCA)world effectively,organisations must gather information and interpret i

234、nsights from the com-plex environment.In their daily lives,their personnel en-counter a wealth of future-relevant information,from the customer interface to technology development to the supply chain.When companies approach this information with a fu-tures-oriented lens and organise its sharing to b

235、enefit the whole organisation,they can embed foresight into daily practices and have an evolving future-oriented or-ganisational culture.Cultivating a culture that encourag-es anticipation,involvement,and foresight can improve the effectiveness and influence of future-oriented think-ing while also h

236、elping to recruit employees by fostering a sense of community.Futures literacy is a dynamic capability of an organisa-tion that relies on organisation-wide anticipatory ca-pabilities and participation.A robust futures-oriented culture can enable agility and value-based engagement of the entire perso

237、nnel.Instead of short-termism,aim for a futures-literate organisational culture that remains open to emergence and continuously seeks out new practices.Improving the efficiency and impact of foresightFostering a forward-looking organisational cultureEnhancing employee commitment and sense of communi

238、ty53Cultivating a futures-literate organisation cultureMotivating the staff to engage in foresightIdentifying futures relevant informationSharing the information with the whole organisationResourcing of foresight workIntegrating foresight with decision-making processesStrengthening the future orient

239、ation of organisational cultureAs the business environment grows increasingly com-plex,keeping up with its demands for decision-making becomes more challenging.This underscores the im-portance of increasing the organisations capacity to process and act on forward-looking information.SYSTEMATIC LEARN

240、ING AND RESOURCE ALLOCATIONThe ability to think and plan for the future is partly innate,but much of it is developed through practice.It involves cultivating thought patterns that allow us to envision al-ternative futures and challenge existing assumptions.However,benefiting from this in business or

241、ganisations requires systematic development,resource allocation and learning of foresight methods and new ways of thinking.UTILISING FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATIONAccess to foresight is a self-evident precursor to utiliz-ing it.Several factors influence the flow of foresight-re-lated information in org

242、anisational decision-making.Information overload is already a challenge,and tacit knowledge still plays an important role in business op-erations.Additionally,multiple layers of governance can filter,distort,or even block information flows,especially for highly uncertain information like weak signal

243、s.An organisational culture conducive to foresight is an-other precursor for unlocking its promises.Culture emerges as groups navigate external pressures and in-ternal dynamics.Some cultural norms operate at a sub-conscious level,created through past lessons.While culture evolves,it often remains re

244、sistant to external in-fluence.Foresight activities may be considered burden-some,and collected information may be deemed irrel-evant.Integrating forward-thinking into daily operations isnt always straightforward,particularly when manage-ment excessively prioritises short-term goals,hindering employ

245、ees more extended future orientation.Challenge description 54Cultivating a futures-literate organisation cultureEVOLVING ORGANISATIONAL CULTURETheres no one-size-fits-all solution to strengthening or-ganisational cultures future orientation.It requires nur-turing in various ways,considering the orga

246、nisations history with foresight and its current cultural status.Disappointments from previous foresight projects can reinforce short-termism if not appropriately addressed.Even successful integration of foresight methods can pose challenges for further development.For example,if a company already i

247、mplements advanced foresight methods as part of its strategy process or within spe-cific teams,maintaining broader interest and continuous development can become challenging.This challenge arises when there is a consensus that others adequate-ly address future matters,and individuals perceive it as

248、someone elses responsibility rather than relevant to their own tasks.Moreover,as expectations continual-ly rise,simply providing future-literate decision-makers with new insights by specialized foresight experts may not produce the desired outcomes.If prior foresight efforts have effectively shaped

249、the companys strategic direction and instigated systemic changes,disregarding this previous knowledge of the future would be unwise.Failing to acknowledge the link to the past,future work can undermine faith in fore-sight as a valuable tool.Conversely,if no new insights are gained from future endeav

250、ours,it may feel like time has been squandered.As an organisations future con-sciousness grows,expectations for foresight work in-crease.Futures-literate culture cant be forced;it grows with nurturing and support.55Cultivating a futures-literate organisation cultureKONE engages its personnel to shar

251、e views of the fu-ture and actively integrate sense-making into their daily work.A recent foresight project aimed to understand the futures of urban living,and KONE wanted to bring together its global base of experts to engage with the topic and harness their expertise.VTT,in turn,contrib-uted its p

252、roprietary foresight tools and research exper-tise to the project.The project utilised various foresight methods to ensure a robust outside-in perspective.It commenced with VTT radar work,from which the main change drivers of future living were identified and then validated with the assistance of in

253、ternational experts.This created a solid foundation for beginning actual joint work in the future,such as looking for related trends,understanding their meaning and clarifying their impli-cations for KONE together with participants.FORESIGHT PROCESS TO CONTRIBUTE TO DAILY WORKIn the many phases of t

254、he project,special attention was paid to making it easy for the participants rep-resenting different business lines and expertise areas to take the co-created results into their own respec-tive use.Participants were encouraged to find the re-sults relevant to their current work topics.For example,wo

255、rkshops included exercising the use of information to prepare presentations for forthcoming events and customer discussions.BRINGING TOGETHER A WIDE RANGE OF STAKEHOLDERSThe project engaged external stakeholder perspec-tives,such as end users,in workshops.As an outcome,the project built a new,multi-

256、perspective understand-ing of future possibilities.It contributed to strengthen-ing company-wide foresight capabilities,creating new insights for marketing,enhancing thought leadership and crystallizing topics for research collaboration.Ad-ditionally,the project helped to enhance existing inter-nal

257、networks and create new ones.Special effort was made to ensure participants could easily utilise the co-produced results.Case:KONE is building futures together56Cultivating a futures-literate organisation cultureSolution exampleDiscovering the power of foresight at the heart of businessThe transitio

258、n towards a futures-literate organisational culture is propelled by discovering together the signif-icance of future information in navigating the operat-ing environment and as a core aspect of the companys business.This entails integrating foresight into custom-er relationships,management practices

259、,and business understanding.Crucially,the culture begins to shift only when both internal and external perceptions of the companys purpose and role in its industry change,with customers,partners and stakeholders coming to ex-pect forward-looking insights and solutions for future success.Engaging all

260、 personnel in this transformation cultivates futures literacy,prompting a reassessment of cultural assumptions and better readiness for the VUCA world.However,achieving this requires ongoing development efforts.Shallow adoption of foresight,such as order-ing a foresight report at the beginning of th

261、e strate-gy process or merely using future-oriented slogans on the company website without real changes or resource allocation,wont lead to meaningful renewal.Genuine progress demands commitment,understanding,and a focus on substance rather than just superficial changes or single activities.Identify

262、ing pain points in current business practices,whether within your own organisation or with custom-ers and partners,can kickstart collaborative future work.For example,facilitating future information shar-ing between functions addresses information exchange issues and advances future-focused initiati

263、ves,solving persistent problems while progressing together.Creating opportunities to explore the future with cus-tomers,partners,and stakeholders can challenge exist-ing cultural norms and notions of success,prompting the organisation to adapt to evolving demands.Therefore,genuine future-proofing re

264、quires a comprehensive shift in orientation,with a deep understanding of customers needs and the anticipated or even unexpected changes disturbing their business environment,driving cultural evolution.Ultimately,the drive for change,in addressing the WHY question,must align with the organisations pu

265、rpose and financial viability,which are ultimately root-ed in both current and future customer needs and pref-erences.Understanding these needs requires collec-tively creating broader viewpoints of the future,i.e.,a futures-literate organisational culture that both draws from and feeds into the comp

266、any and its networks.Developing a company-specific change framework based on organisational culture transformation models like VTTs16,facilitates mindset evaluation,constructive debate,and communication of underlying motivations.It helps understand different perspectives and fos-ters commitment to p

267、rogress.A new culture gradually emerges as future signals and demands are embraced in daily work.Participative organisational culture evalu-ations support this process.57Cultivating a futures-literate organisation cultureFigure:A general framework for cultivating transformation towards futures-liter

268、ate organisational culture.OUTCOMES&IMPACT BEYOND THE FIRMINTRA FIRM OUTPUTSFutures-literate organisation cultureNew core taskOld core taskCurrent business orientationFuture orientationBusiness understandingManagement practicesand supportive toolsForesight practicesand supportive toolsCustomer relat

269、ionshipChallenge driven,sense making,co-creationAdaptive,evolving,&collaborative-supportingAgile,joint learning,explorative-supportingPurpose driven,Future opportunitiesConfining toexisting core taskReviewmanagementShort term,transaction basedSeparated,individual58Cultivating a futures-literate orga

270、nisation cultureKey learnings To establish a future-oriented organisational culture,take a customized and patient approach.Experiment,adapt,and stay committed to long-term growth.Under-stand the organizations specific history,strengths,and areas for improvement to tailor effective initiatives.Integr

271、ate foresight work into daily work to improve its future orientation.Encourage collaboration across all departments.For successful foresight,effective processes and struc-tures are paramount.Establishing designated channels for information flow ensures that the right information reaches the right pe

272、ople in a timely manner.Allocating dedicated resources for foresight activities is not just beneficial,its crucial.Fostering a futures-literate organisational culture re-quires integrating foresight into all business aspects and shared foresight understanding with decision-making processes.Success w

273、ill be achieved when both cur-rent and future customers trust you to safeguard the future of their business.123456Customised and patient approach towards future-oriented culture Common understanding of impact and meaning for businessProcesses and structures to identify and share futures relevant inf

274、ormationResources and tools,both integrated and dedicated foresightIntegrating shared foresight understanding with decision-making processesEnhancing customer demand for future insights and shared exploration59Cultivating a futures-literate organisation cultureThis classic on management discusses,am

275、ong other things,the role of organisational filters in dissemi-nating information within the organisation from the perspective of decision-making bottlenecks.Ansoff,H.I.(1990).Implanting strategic manage-ment.Prentice-Hall.Literature resourcesThis seminal work explores the concept of organi-sational

276、 culture and its influence on leadership and organisational dynamics.It remains a foundational text in the field and has been used extensively in academic literature and practical applications re-lated to organisational culture and leadership.Schein,E.H.(1985).Organizational culture and leadership:A

277、 Dynamic view.Jossey-Bass.60Chapter name hereFuture customersMaarit Halttunen,Pauli Komonen,Anu Seisto“Customer-centricity is one of the companys strengths that has been preserved since the company was founded.It is also,if you think about foresight,one of the most important,if not the most importan

278、t,tool,to know how our customers see what we are doing and their own future.”Sustainability Manager,Ponsse62Future customersFuture customers are not yet here;and yet you can create insight about themWorking with leading-edge customers brings a fresh perspective to business developmentCustomer foresi

279、ght builds long-term competitiveness and relevanceWhy this topic?From a corporate strategy viewpoint,understanding the dynamics of past,present,and future customer be-haviour is critical for maintaining competitiveness and relevance.Without customers,there is no business.Customer behaviour is consta

280、ntly changing.New needs,practices,and lifestyles emerge,all connected to envi-ronmental,societal,and cultural changes.On the other hand,peoples lives are stable.Customers often stick to their routines,habits,and values.Within these dynam-ics of change and stability,future customer behaviour is evolv

281、ing.Whether we are interested in change or constancy,our challenge is that the customer of the future is not yet here.We cannot time-travel into the future to conduct a customer survey or interview.The methods to over-come this obstacle involve integrating strategic foresight and customer research a

282、pproaches.So far,customer and future insights have often been created separately in different company functions.The emerging field of customer foresight integrates these two viewpoints to create robust insights about the future customer.63Future customersChallenge descriptionUnderstand future custom

283、ers,even as you are building out your customer foresight capabilitiesConsumer trends change constantly;how do you track,analyse,and utilise them?Customers can be co-developers;whats the approach,value,and utility?tance of anticipating the emerging needs of both their direct customers and their custo

284、mers customers.The ability to do so effectively,however,seems not to be fully developed yet.There is a prevailing need for businesses to better understand and integrate their customers into their efforts to anticipate future developments.A variety of customer foresight tools exists to bolster these

285、capabilities,including consumer research ap-proaches such as lead user and early adopter studies.In addition,foresight methods like environmental scan-ning and scenario planning can be helpful.The key is establishing a common ground and creating a valuable combination of methods from both fields.The

286、 past few years have been tumultuous,regard-less of whether we are examining consumers or busi-ness-to-business clients.Many aspects of customer be-haviour have profoundly changed.Several fundamental assumptions of daily life have lately come into ques-tion,rattled by global health risks,geopolitica

287、l tensions and energy availability.More recently,breakthroughs in generative AI are effecting changes at a breakneck pace,with hard-to-predict consequences in custom-ers lives.The transition towards sustainability brings new op-portunities and constraints for customers.Increasingly,customers are dri

288、ving this transition with a rising de-mand for responsible products and services.At the same time,regulation is pushing towards using sustain-able materials,energy,and logistics,impacting the en-tire value chain.A study on the foresight capabilities of Finnish compa-nies17 found that strategic custo

289、mers and target groups are typically not involved in foresight processes despite the companies desire to involve them.Underlying the desire is the companies acknowledgement of the impor-Sales and marketing functions want to understand the customer better all the time.However,I dont believe that they

290、 look at the year 2030 and beyond.Corporate clients are monitored in business development,too.I dont see it done very systematically,though.Business Development Director,Orion64Future customersThe sustainability trend can be called a megatrend of customer behaviour.This shift has substantial implica

291、-tions for corporate strategy and product development.Megatrends like sustainability help contextualize the big picture of change,but detecting discontinuities requires looking elsewhere.SHIFTING CUSTOMER BEHAVIOUR REQUIRES TREND MANAGEMENTWeak signals of customer behaviour often emerge from the fri

292、nges of consumer culture and,for instance,from among young people and other pioneering groups.Matt Klein,Head of Global Foresight at Reddit and an ac-tive cultural commentator,has conducted a meta-anal-ysis18 of over 50 recent global cultural forecasts.He has identified several notable,yet easily ov

293、erlooked trends,including psychic healing,AI plural perception,gamed defictionalisation,and nostalgia spins.In the rapidly moving world,it is not easy to keep track of all these trends with playful and witty names,but luckily,there are tools for it.Trend management is an area of corporate foresight

294、that aims to identify,inter-pret,and utilise trends systematically.Many software tools help manage trend databases in practice.In con-sumer-facing and rapidly evolving businesses,such as fast-moving consumer goods and telecommunications,tracking customer trends with a relatively short time horizon f

295、rom one to three years is a typical approach for understanding changes in consumer behaviour.ETHNOGRAPHIC IMMERSION UNCOVERS SOCIO-CULTURAL CHANGESTrends are critical to customer foresight,but what ex-actly are they?Liebl&Schwarz19 define trends as so-cio-cultural innovations arising from crossing a

296、nd chal-lenging the boundaries of ordinary life.This definition is particularly insightful in the context of consumer be-haviour change.An emerging trend can be understood as a vague silhouette whose new quality and outline must be identified and evaluated20.A critical role of customer foresight is

297、identifying,analysing and interpreting these silhouettes.Interpretation necessitates a comprehensive under-standing of the respective phenomenon.In consumer research,ethnographic immersion into consumer cul-ture can prove invaluable.Ethnography involves observ-ing and interacting with consumers for

298、several hours to several days.Such immersion uncovers nuanced,em-pirically based insights that are challenging to obtain through other methods.LONG PRODUCT LIFECYCLES CALL FOR VISIONARY CUSTOMERSSpecific customers possess visionary capabilities.Ru-pert Hofmann21 has described how Audi collaborates c

299、o-creatively with customers identified as“trend re-ceivers.”The car manufacturers product development cycle typically spans seven years.As a result,products conceived today must remain relevant in a future that could be markedly different from the present.Visionary customers are instrumental in this

300、 regard.They rep-resent a unique customer segment with an ability to envision future lifestyles,technologies,and aesthetics,among other aspects.This approach has been widely adopted and proven effective at Audi.Among B2B customers,tracking trends and recognising forerunner customers requires,at leas

301、t partly,different methods than among consumers.However,recognis-ing forerunner customers can benefit B2B companies in many ways,not only by anticipating future trends and success factors but also by understanding future mar-kets and customers more thoroughly.65Future customersCase:Customer foresigh

302、t within a cluster SIX Mobile Machines cluster,a cluster of leading Finn-ish mobile work machine producers,has joined forces to form a joint agenda and roadmap towards green and digital mobile machines in 2030.The cluster wanted to enhance the customer,user,and human perspective to support its fores

303、ight efforts as part of this future road-map and vision building.For this aim,the cluster started investigating the every-day challenges of salespeople and their customers.The goal was to elaborate on the importance and mean-ing of the various mobile work machines for customers,both currently and in

304、 the future.In addition,the cluster wanted to evaluate the challeng-es in the industrys operating environment.Therefore,they prioritised recognised challenges and assessed the possibilities for influencing their realisation.It became apparent that by understanding the reality of the customers and us

305、ers,the producers of mobile work machines could support customers in the tran-sitions they are facing and formulate their offerings to best suit their current and future needs.Although chal-lenges differ among mobile work machines,customers,and producers,many are common.(1)The severe changes in the

306、operating environments,(2)the increased know-how of the customers and us-ers as well as(3)the changes in the work and work-ing environment make it crucial to pay attention to the customers routines and related challenges.As part of the clusters vision and roadmap building process,it is important to

307、consider the perspectives of future cus-tomers and users,in addition to technical aspects.Even though our customers are different,we share the same future challenges,which we can tackle better together.Harri Nieminen,Head of SIX initiative 66Future customersSolution ExampleVTT Consumer futures coneN

308、ear the core of the cone,we can also identify plausi-ble and projected futures,which can also rely on a large amount of data and modelling.As we move towards the outer circles,the findings become more uncertain and speculative,relying on less data.Micro trends and weak signals can be identified in t

309、he behaviour of vari-ous leading-edge consumer groups.However,predict-ing wild cards and black swans is almost impossible.Nonetheless,it is important to discuss possible sur-prising events that could have a significant impact.A co-creative approach such as speculative design and sci-fi prototyping c

310、an be helpful in future-oriented prod-uct and service development.A comprehensive view of the future requires a holistic perspective.However,sometimes,it can also be ben-eficial to focus on a certain layer of change if it serves the challenge at hand.How do we categorise the approaches to consumer f

311、ore-sight?The VTT Consumer futures cone is based on the Futures cone framework,initially developed by Joseph Voros22 and later adapted and modified by many others.This framework helps understand the different types of futures,from possible to plausible and even preposterous.The Consumer futures cone

312、 shows that different kinds of change require different analytical tools.For example,consumer megatrends typically point towards probable futures.Megatrends and their direction can be validat-ed through large masses of data.They can be used as a stable indicator and a strategic signpost of change in

313、 consumer behaviour.Demographic development is one example:in most developed markets,consumers will be older on average in the future.Consequently,these developments are robust building blocks for a growth strategy.67Future customersWhat kind of consumers futures can we think about?PreposterousWild

314、cards and black swans of consumer behaviourPossibleConsumer micro trendsand weak signalsLead users,early adoptersPlausibleConsumer scenarios and future personasProbableConsumer megatredsProjectedQuantitative extrapolation of historical consumer dataPreferableConsumer co-creationOpen innovation commu

315、nitiesSpeculative designSci-fi prototypingWhat kind of pathways for business development can we identify?Risk managementThought leadershipGrowth strategyCommercialexcellenceProduct andservice developmentWhat can weknow about theconsumer now?Data&analyticsQuantitativesurveysSegmentationsQualitative c

316、onsumerinsight studiesTIMEFigure:VTT Consumer futures cone68Future customersSolution ExampleProfiling forerunners rative models and value networks among stakeholders.The forerunners are eager and able to renew,try new courses of action and build new value networks and collaboration models between th

317、e actors.The forerunners are not,however,a unified group of actors.Forerunners could be divided into categories depending on how they prioritise sustainability,invest in developing know-how and capabilities,and use wood materials in their construction projects.By profiling forerunners,it is possible

318、 to understand better what issues will be emphasised in future busi-ness.Understanding the forerunners also helps to re-alise what skills,practices,or values are helpful in fu-ture-proof organisations in different industries.Strategic foresight enables orienting business development.It also provides

319、 excellent insight into the potential customer needs.Jussi Bjrman,Director of Business Development and Customer Experience at Mets WoodIndustry forerunners can offer valuable insights into emerging opportunities,challenges,and changes in customer behaviour.Furthermore,the information gathered from t

320、hese forerunners can be a vital com-ponent of a robust and future-proof strategic fore-sight process,guiding the development of capabilities to ensure success in the future.A recent study23 elaborated on preferences and views on the future of forerunners in the wood construction industry,including t

321、hose of experts and customers.Forerunners particularly value sustainability,architec-ture,and wood as a material.Additionally,they are pro-moting the use of wood in construction and low-car-bon solutions within their organisation and the wider industry.The forerunners are ready and willing to inno-v

322、ate,explore novel approaches,and establish collabo-69Future customersFamiliarize with customer foresightWork on customer trendsCo-develop with forerunner customers 123Key learningsAs customer behaviour constantly evolves,it is essen-tial to research current trends and future scenarios.Changes in cus

323、tomer behaviour manifest across multiple levels,necessitating robust analysis and management of trends.Customers should not be viewed merely as subjects of research;instead,they possess the potential to act as active co-creators and visionary contributors towards business development.As co-developer

324、s,they can bring a fresh and less biased perspective rooted in real-world,everyday needs.Customer foresight is crucial in business-to-consum-er(B2C)and business-to-business(B2B)contexts.Al-though the methodologies for engaging customers in these spheres might vary,gaining an insight into the fu-ture

325、 customers viewpoint enables the creation of solu-tions and strategies tailored to meet forthcoming needs.This proves particularly critical in sectors characterised by lengthy product development and innovation cycles.For instance,should the journey from conceptualisation to commercial distribution

326、of a product span a decade,the customers environment could undergo significant transformations during this period.Nonetheless,it is feasible to construct scenarios of plausible futures in the here and now.The forward-thinking,customer-centric approach en-hances product relevance and ensures that bus

327、inesses remain competitive and aligned with evolving customer expectations.Engaging with customers as partners in the development process enriches the innovation pipe-line,leading to more effective and user-centric solu-tions.Thus,embracing the dynamic nature of custom-er behaviour and incorporating

328、 customer foresight into strategic planning is imperative for sustainable business growth and innovation.70Future customersWithout a customer,there is no business.71Future customersLiterature resourcesIntroducing the customer foresight research field in practical terms.Eller,E.,Hofmann,R.&Schwarz,J.

329、O.(2020).The customer foresight territory.Marketing Re-view St.Gallen,37(3),12-19.How KONE collaborated with visionary lead user consumers in London.Komonen,P.,&Jacobson,S.(2023).Citizens en-visioning life in 2040:A qualitative corporate fore-sight study in London.Futures&Foresight Sci-ence,e175.72C

330、hapter name hereBuilding futures by networked foresightKatri Valkokari,Jaakko Paasi,Maaria Nuutinen,Tiina Apilo,Juuli Huuhanmki73Building futures by networked foresightWhy this topicThe landscape of business and innovation has become too complex and uncertain to be understood through conventional“li

331、near”approaches such as“technology push”or“market pull”.In the complex and highly in-terconnected business environment disruptions may emerge either inside or outside the current landscape.Todays main challenge is not strategy analysis but turn-ing the gained insights into actionable business plans

332、in a continuously changing business environment.Despite the complexity of the current business environ-ment,companies are still using the same approaches for strategy design as they did in 1980.Even so,over the last 40 years,there has been a shift in understand-ing that for a strategy to be successf

333、ul,the entire com-pany and its stakeholders must be involved.According to a survey24,65%of respondents believe that engaging stakeholders is crucial.This stakeholder engagement calls for collaborative and networked foresight.Futures are built together with ex-ternal stakeholders,probing various alternative paths towards a desired outcome.This chapter considers how different objectives of fore-sigh