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1、We are enteri ng a more beni gn part of the cycl e wi th a conti nuati on of economi c ngrowth al ongsi de l ower pol i cy rates a combi nati on that has hi stori cal l y been posi ti ve for equi ti es.Longer-term rates are unl i kel y to fal l gi ven a rebui l d of term premi a and hi gher ngovernm

2、ent defici ts.Thi s,together wi th hi gh US equi ty val uati ons,moderates the upsi de i n equi ti es at the i ndex l evel.Thi s means that al pha shoul d become a more i mportant dri ver of returns wi th a nbroadeni ng opportuni ty set wi thi n and across equi ty markets.There i s a growi ng symbi

3、oti c rel ati onshi p between the potenti al for the nTechnol ogy sector and growth i n some parts of the ol d economy as the needs for capex rol l out and el ectri ficati on i ncrease.The prospects for equi ty returns are no l onger a functi on of whether the sector ni s cl assi fied as Growth or V

4、al ue;i t can be a bi t of both.We l ook for opportuni ti es to i mprove ri sk-adj usted returns through more regi onal ndi versi ficati on.We expect broadeni ng market parti ci pati on wi th Mi d caps i n the US,ETCs(ex Tech compounders)and sel ecti ve Val ue compounders.Where are we headed?1.Fol l

5、 owi ng the past coupl e of years of hi gh i nflati on and i nterest rates,we are enteri ng a more beni gn stage of the economi c cycl e.The prospects for conti nued gl obal growth remai n posi ti ve and our economi sts have reduced thei r i mpl i ed US recessi on probabi l i ty to 15%over the next

6、12 months i n l i ne wi th the uncondi ti onal average.Thi s cycl e i s al so evol vi ng i n a more typi cal way rel ati ve to the post fiscal cri si s cycl e wi th i ts sub-trend growth and zero i nterest rates(Exhi bi t 1).I n compari son,whi l e economi c acti vi ty i n other regi ons remai ns we