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1、In mi d-2023 we lai d out the case for an AI i nvestment cycle reachi ng 2%of nannual GDP,where 1)an i ni ti al surge i n hardware i nvestment necessary to trai n AI models and run AI queri es would ulti mately fade as compute costs decli ne whi le 2)AI software i nvestment i ncreases steadi ly over

2、 ti me as end-user adopti on i ncreases.Thi s thesi s has largely borne out so far,albei t i n a more frontloaded manner than we expected.Thi s weekends reports that DeepSeek obtai ned si mi lar AI model performance at na fracti on of the cost of exi sti ng models rai ses questi ons around whether t

3、he cost di si nflati on stage of the AI i nvestment cycle i s also arri vi ng sooner than expected,whether large AI i nvestments are sustai nable,and whether AI i nfrastructure compani es wi ll be able to capture an outsi zed revenue share.These are vali d questi ons regardi ng the di stri buti on o

4、f profits,but the macro i mpli cati ons of DeepSeeks breakthrough are more li mi ted and most li kely posi ti ve.The mai n near-term ri sk to GDP i s that more effici ent model trai ni ng and ndecli ni ng compute costs could lower AI-related capex.We are less concerned from a macro perspecti ve si n

5、ce AI-related i nvestment has so far had li ttle i mpact on offici al GDP measures,thereby li mi ti ng downsi de even i f i nvestment does slow.Furthermore,our equi ty analysts note that DeepSeek could catalyze hi gher levels of real hardware spendi ng i f i t pushes i ncumbents to i nvest more to m

6、ai ntai n thei r lead.DeepSeeks breakthrough could rai se macroeconomi c upsi de over the nmedi um-term i f i ts cost reducti ons help i ncrease competi ti on around the development of platforms and appli cati ons.Li mi ted adopti on i s sti ll the mai n bottleneck to unlocki ng AI-related producti