11、王德新--人工智能驱动精准天气预报全面提升海上风电运营效率 - StormGeo.pdf

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1、AI&Weather Forecasting for Offshore Wind Operations 人工智能驱动精准天气预报全面提升海上风电运营效率Henry Wang(王德新）Sales Manager of StormGeoCWP 20241内容概要StormGeo海上风电服务概述01AI天气预报简介02案例分析：AI预测在实际应用中的表现03StormGeo DELFI 模型04AI预测模型的未来发展052StormGeo 全球天气敏感行业的气象服全球天气敏感行业的气象服务提供商务提供商 1998年成立于挪威卑尔根 全球 25 个办事处和 600 名员工 航运、石油和天然气、可再生能

2、源、跨行业、媒体 24/7/365 阿法拉伐集团旗下全资子公司StormGeo海上风电服务概述3StormGeo 在海上风电领域的服务在海上风电领域的服务 全球超过200个项目业绩 项目分布欧洲、亚洲、南北美洲 精准的短期和长期天气预报 雷电、热带风暴预警 定制化的气象数据 提供决策支持海上风电作业中的气象风险4StormGeo气象预报服务平台5定点作业风险评估6定点未来 7天精准的小时预报7雷电预警8提前 7天台风预警9Typhoon Yagi NoTyphoon Yagi No.11,11,20242024平台实时显示最新热带气旋信息提前 7天台风预警10每天不间断发布热带气旋发展情况详细

3、介绍以及对客户项目的影响AI天气预报简介11Forecasting weatherMultiple weather models give alternative predictions for each siteForecasters can manually correct forecasts to improve accuracyNote that not all work is manual-simple methods for precorrections of forecasts exists already AI global model(AI data-based model)

4、What is AI forecasting?Weather prediction from data instead of(only)numerical/physical equations Trained to recognise patterns in weather behaviour based on 40 years historical archive of global weather re-analysisBased on physical equations describing the atmospheric processesNumerical weather mode

5、lGlobal weather forecasting with AIMethod:Learn from weather data-identifying patterns and trends that human forecasters or traditional models might overlookTraining on 40 years historical data archive(ERA5)Timestep(6hours)Timestep(6hours)Identify patterns in how weather variables develops timestep

6、by timestepAn interative processContinous learning Source:Weather forecasting in the age of AI(harvard.edu)(modified)How do the models perform?AI models performs“top of the class”Talk by Lang at ECMWF UEF24-EC AI model-Other AI models -ECMWF classic modelOther classic weather modelsWellknown AI mode