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1、EQUITYRESEARCH|August 06,2024|5:44PM HKTGoldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.Investors should consider this repor

2、t as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures,see the Disclosure Appendix,or go to employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.The Gol dman Sachs Group,Inc.A year ago ou

3、r China team deconstructed Chinas supply chain amidst unprecedented changes to the outlook,to build a picture of resilience,opportunity and vulnerability.A year on and a year worse,we sample seven significant global manufacturing industries representing 22%of Chinas GDP growth.In five sectors,these

4、industries have built more capacity than the entire global demand pool imbalances that have left more than 50%of capacity running at zero or negative cash margins.As Chinas transition continues,we ask how cyclical are these imbalances,how much further can they go and how might we gauge inflection po

5、ints ahead.We conclude that Chinese manufacturers are responding to poor profitability and uncertainties around limitations to market access to the US and EU,pre-emptively adjusting the pace of future additions of capacity,in contrast to consensus narratives.We expect a rebalancing in supply versus

6、demand,a restoration in profit,and sharp deceleration of Chinese supply to the world through 2028.Our Rule of Three and tipping point frameworks suggest that:(1)solar and lithium batteries are the closest to reaching an inflection point in their supply/demand imbalances,with negative cash margins an