世界经济论坛：COVID-19风险展望（英文版）（66页）.pdf

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1、1 Insight Report In partnership with Marsh in advanced economies alone, it is expected to increase from 105% of GDP in 2019 to 122% in 2020.5 Most governments are likely to face increasingly burdened budgets for many years, others may face a structural weakening of their fiscal positions, and some c

2、ould become at risk of defaulting. How governments will seek to recuperate public finances, whether they will need to and who will absorb the impact of fiscal imbalances are largely uncertain. Higher taxes in the future may present one option. However, since shutdowns have affected most sectors, hig

3、her levies are likely to be borne by the few sectors that have fared well multiple groceries, pharmaceuticals and software companies have already announced large-scale hiring plans6 which would risk countering their capacity to support the recovery. Reallocating or reducing public budgets may be ano

4、ther option. Through the pandemic, public expenditure has been critical to guarantee pay for furloughed workers, procure critical goods and strengthen health systems. Exit strategies will also depend on large public spending, as governments will need to secure tests, therapeutic drugs, vaccinations

5、or a combination of the above. Any austerity measures and reallocation may therefore affect other critical areas, including infrastructures, non-health scientific research and development, and climate action (see Chapter 2) all of which have critical long-term benefits for the global economy, enviro

6、nment and society at large as well as potentially shifting financial costs to future generations. Global economic relations can trade and FDI recover? Before the crisis, the global economy was already under strain from trade tensions, low investment, weak confidence and high debt. Nonetheless, a sud