Silver Institute：2019年世界白银调查报告（英文版）(104页).pdf

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1、THE SILVER INSTITUTE 1400 I Street, NW, Suite 550 Washington, D.C. 20005 Tel: +1-202-835-0185 Email: infosilverinstitute.org www.silverinstitute.org WORLD SILVER SURVEY 2019 World Silver Survey 2019The Silver Institute / Refinitiv THE SILVER INSTITUTE (major funding companies of The Silver Institute

2、) Asahi Refining Cia. de Minas Buenaventura, S.A.A. Coeur Mining, Inc. Endeavour Silver Corp. First Majestic Silver Corp. Fresnillo plc Hecla Mining Company Hochschild Mining plc Industrias Peoles, S.A.B. de C.V. Pan American Silver Corp. Wheaton Precious Metals Back Cover Image: Sterling Silver Daz

3、zle Pendant Necklace by Namb Printed by Park Communications, London 28769 Front Cover Image: Macro close up of a pure silver bullion coin Michael Turner - D Refinitiv The Refinitiv Building, 30 South Colonnade London, E14 5EP, UK E-mail: GFMS Web: The Silver Institute 1400 I Street, NW, Suite 550 Wa

4、shington, D.C., 20005 Telephone: +1-202-835-0185 infosilverinstitute.org www.silverinstitute.org WORLD SILVER SURVEY 2019 BY Cameron Alexander, Director of Precious Metals Research Bruce Alway, Director of Base Metals Research Saida Litosh, Manager of Metals Research Johann Wiebe, Lead Analyst Wenyu

5、 Yao, Lead Analyst Debajit Saha, Senior Analyst Karen Norton, Senior Analyst Samson Li, Senior Analyst Federico Guy, Senior Analyst Natalie Scott-Gray, Senior Analyst Seema Goenka, Analyst OTHER CONTRIBUTORS: IFR Production, Refinitiv Produced for The Silver Institute by the GFMS team at Refinitiv A

6、BOUT THE MAJOR SPONSORS OF WORLD SILVER SURVEY 2019 Coeur Mining, Inc. Coeur Mining, Inc. is a well-diversified, growing precious metals producer with five mines in North America employing approximately 2,000 people. Coeurs wholly-owned operations include the Palmarejo silver-gold complex in Mexico,

7、 the Silvertip silver-zinc-lead mine in British Columbia, the Rochester silver-gold mine in Nevada, the Kensington gold mine in Alaska, and the Wharf gold mine in South Dakota. In addition, the Company owns the La Preciosa project in Mexico, a silver-gold exploration stage project, and conducts expl

8、oration activities throughout North America. Fresnillo plc Fresnillo plc is the worlds largest primary silver producer and Mexicos second largest gold producer, listed on the London and Mexican Stock Exchanges under the symbol FRES. Fresnillo plc has seven operating mines, all of them in Mexico - Fr

9、esnillo, Saucito, Cinega (including the San Ramn satellite mine), Herradura, Soledad-Dipolos1, Noche Buena and San Julin (phase I), three development projects - San Julin (phase II), the Pyrites plant, and second line of DLP at Herradura, and four advanced exploration projects Orisyvo, Juanicipio, L

10、as Casas Rosario the stock is included in the IPC index. One of the largest net exporters in Mexicos private sector. Pan American Silver Corp. Pan American Silver is the worlds premier silver mining company, with large silver reserves and a diversified portfolio of producing mines. On February 22, 2

11、019, we completed our acquisition of Tahoe Resources. Our portfolio of assets now includes 10 operating mines located in Canada, Mexico, Peru, Bolivia and Argentina. Through the transaction, we also acquired the Escobal mine in Guatemala, one of the most attractive silver assets in the world. Operat

12、ions at Escobal are currently suspended, pending, among other things, the completion of an ILO 169 consultation process with Xinka indigenous communities to be undertaken by Guatemalas Ministry of Energy and Mines. Pan American intends to support this consultation process, as well as engage the loca

13、l communities and Xinka populations in an effort to build long-lasting, trusting relationships for the benefit of all stakeholders. In 2018, Pan American produced 24.8 million ounces of silver and 178,900 ounces of gold. Consolidated cash costs1 to produce an ounce of silver were $3.35, net of by-pr

14、oduct credits, and all-in sustaining costs per silver ounce sold1 were $10.73. These results do not reflect the newly acquired Tahoe assets. At December 31, 2018, our proven and probable silver and gold mineral reserves2 were approximately 279.8 million and 1.7 million ounces, respectively. Our meas

15、ured and indicated mineral resources2 were approximately 682.1 million ounces of silver and 478.5 thousand ounces of gold as at the end of 2018. These results do not reflect the newly acquired Tahoe assets. Pan Americans asset portfolio offers unparalleled upside for investors seeking exposure to si

16、lver through the potential restart of the Escobal mine and development of the Navidad project, as well as our major exploration discovery at La Colorada. In 2019, we celebrate our silver anniversary: 25 years of operating in Latin America, earning an industry-leading reputation for operational excel

17、lence and corporate social responsibility. Notes: 1 Cash costs and all-in sustaining costs per silver ounce sold are non-GAAP measures and do not have standardized meanings prescribed by IFRS. Please refer to the Alternative Performance (Non-GAAP) Measures section in Pan Americans Managements Discus

18、sion indeed it also attracts varying attention from the investment and speculative fraternities with, for example, ETP total holdings shifting from modest inflows in 2017 to a 3% decline to 649.5Moz (20,203t) in 2018, while bar and coin consumption jumped by over 20% to 181.2Moz (5,637t). In additio

19、n to physical investment, and in order to deal with risk and price management, silver also has a very active Over-The-Counter (OTC) market, in which (a broad rule of thumb is) that LBMA loco London volumes are approximately twice the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) published transfer number

20、s. In order to estimate the global OTC volume we assume that loco London now accounts for approximately 70% of the total. Taking this into consideration, silver implied OTC transactions in 2018 increased for a sixth consecutive year, rising by 2% to 165 bn ounces (4,852,142t). At that level, global

21、OTC transactions are estimated to be approximately on par with the last peak recorded in 1997, the year when the LBMA started making its data publicly available. As a result of the weaker silver price last year the notional value fell 6% year-on-year to $2.6 tr. Indeed our full assessment of the imp

22、act of investment flows can be found in Chapter 3. A further element that differentiates silver from purely industrial metals is that it is held as an above- ground asset by private and institutional investors, users, dealers, banks, and other entities. Increases or decreases in these stocks (whethe

23、r accumulations or sales into terminal markets) can be both price takers and price makers. Indeed, old jewelry scrap, coins and bars make up a significant part of the scrap pool (and they are arguably the truly price-sensitive elements in the whole silver market) as opposed to scrap collected from r

24、ecycled electronics, for example. Refinitivs supply and demand statistics are collected and collated by a team of full time research analysts based in Australia, China, the United Kingdom, United States, India and Singapore, with an extensive field research program that includes interviewing partici

25、pants throughout the industry. When undertaking that primary research, analysts garner information on jewelry and silverware fabrication, coin fabrication and sales, bar sales, industrial fabrication, refining volumes, shifts in above-ground bullion stocks and scrap sales. On a global basis, Refinit

26、iv also collects information and data on government sales and acquisitions and collates producer hedging and de-hedging levels. As part of compiling the statistics, the GFMS team at Refinitiv maintains individual demand databases for over 85 countries around the world and for almost 600 mines and pr

27、oducer projects. 10 WORLD SILVER SURVEY 2019 SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK SUPPLY IN 2018 Global silver mine production declined by 2% in 2018, to a total of 855.7 Moz (26,616 t). Global scrap supply retreated 1.6% last year to 151.3Moz (4,707 t). Silver mine production fell by 21.2Moz (660t) in 2018, the thi

28、rd consecutive year-on-year drop. The decline is attributable to the primary and lead/zinc sectors, mainly in the Americas, as Guatemalas High Court suspended the mining license of its biggest operation, while maintenance problems in Canadas top producer negatively affected silver output by a combin

29、ed 23.5Moz (736t). Partially offsetting the losses, India, China and Argentinas silver production rose by a combined 8.8Moz (275t). We estimate that on a co-product accounting basis, Total Cash Cost + Capex decreased by 1.6% at a global level, averaging $10.37/oz. The ramping up of operations in Arg

30、entina, India and Mexico are expected for 2019, with global production anticipated to rise. Global scrap supply fell by 2% last year to 151.3Moz(4,706t), with a drop recorded across all regions except North America. Supply from North America was slightly higher due to a continued robust economic cli

31、mate that generated silver industrial waste. Other regions, however, countered that development, generated by a lower silver prices that reduced jewelry scrap returns from the market. The global silver producer hedge book decreased by 2.8Moz (88t), leaving the delta-adjusted position at 18.7Moz (581

32、t) by the end of 2018. The delivery into the hedge book was led by Nyrstar, followed by Industrias Peoles and Harmony Gold. The producer community strongly favored forward sales over options. DEMAND IN 2018 Total physical demand rose 4% in 2018 to 1,033.5Moz(32,146t), driven higher by a recovery in

33、retail investment (bars and coins), plus further gains from jewelry and silverware. The modest increase in these sectors offsetting a slight contraction in silver used in industrial applications. Silver jewelry fabrication increased almost 4% to 212.5Moz(6,611t) in 2018, with India and North America

34、 accounting for the bulk of the rise in demand, offsetting falls across East Asia and Europe. Industrial fabrication fell to 578.6Moz (17,997t) in 2018, a 1% decline from the previous year. A drop in silver demand from the photovoltaic sector (PV) accounted for the bulk of the decline, offsetting an

35、nual increases in electronics and electrical and the brazing alloys and solders sectors. Demand from photographic applications continued to retreat, while demand from ethylene oxide (EO) was also weaker. The coin and bar investment category rebounded in 2018 due primarily to a rise in physical bar d

36、emand. 20172015201320112009 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 Million Ounces Constant 2018 US$/oz Source: GFMS, Refi nitiv Industrial Applications Jewelry and Silverware Real Silver Price Coins and Bars 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 WORLD SILVER SUPPLY 20172015201320112009 -100 100 300 500 700 900 1,100 1,3

37、00 Million Ounces 20172015201320112009 -100 100 300 500 700 900 Constant 2018 US$/oz 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Source: GFMS, Refi nitiv Net Goverment Sales ScrapReal Silver Price Net Hedging Supply Mine Production WORLD SILVER DEMAND 11 SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK WORLD SILVER SURVEY 2019 Total physical demand sa

38、w a 4% increase in 2018 to an estimated 1,033.5Moz (32,146t), a three-year high. A strong recovery from retail investment (bars and coins), plus further gains from jewelry and silverware, offset a slight contraction in industrial applications. The 1% decline in industrial demand was largely a functi

39、on of a drop in silver used in photovoltaics (PV), with this fall offsetting modest gains in electrical and electronics and brazing alloys and solders. Global Industrial offtake totalled 578.6Moz (17,997t) in 2018, a 1% decline from the previous year. A drop in silver demand from the photovoltaic se

40、ctor accounted for the bulk of the decline as the market adjusted to reduced silver loadings in solar modules, with the lower figure from this sector masking some solid gains elsewhere. Demand from the electronics and electrical sector rose for the second year in succession as did brazing alloys and

41、 solders which hit a three-year high. Demand from photographic applications continued to retreat, while demand from EO was the largest casualty in this sector falling by a fifth from 2017 volumes. In 2018, silver demand for photographic applications slipped by 4% to 39.3Moz (1,222t). This prolonged

42、long term decline has seen demand from this sector fall acutely to now contribute just 4% of total demand. It would appear that demand has now largely stabilized and that current fabrication volumes may be largely sustainable, or at worst held to modest declines. Indeed there are some industry segme

43、nts that are having somewhat of a renaissance and may well deliver gains in the future. Silver demand from the photovoltaic (PV) sector retreated in 2018, easing 9% to 80.5Moz (2,504t). While the market continued to advance (with global installations reaching a record high last year), silver used in

44、 this segment declined due to ongoing thrifting of silver loadings. China again dominated new installations in 2018, but a legislative change in May last year had an acute impact on domestic demand. Silver jewelry fabrication increased for the second year in succession, rising 4% to an estimated 212

45、.5Moz(6,609t). India was again the standout last year with a surge in demand in the final quarter driving annual consumption 16% higher to a new record level. Elsewhere demand was mixed, with fabrication demand in the United States recording another annual rise (although the pace of expansion slowed

46、 from the previous year), while European demand dipped 3%. In East Asia, demand as a bloc was 3% weaker, dragged lower by declines in China and Thailand, offsetting gains in Indonesia and Vietnam as both markets continued to expand. Global silverware fabrication increased for the second year in succ

47、ession, rising 6% year-on-year to an 61.1Moz (1,900t), a three-year high. India once again accounted for the bulk of the annual rise, increasing 10% year-on-year and accounting for more than two- thirds of global consumption. Identifiable investment, which consists of physical bar investment, coins

48、GFMS, Refinitiv THE SILVER PRICE IN OTHER CURRENCIES IN 2018 Euro/kg Rupee/kg Yen/10g Yuan/kg Annual Average 427.39 38,505 557.3 3,600 Maximum 477.12 41,380 624.2 3,836 Minimum 388.54 35,700 506.3 3,370 Range:Average 20.7% 14.8% 21.2% 12.9% Source: GFMS, Refinitiv 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2015201020052

49、000199519901985198019751970 Constant 2018 US$/oz 1980 Average: $59.81 1970-2018 Average: $16.69 Source: GFMS, Refi nitiv THE SILVER PRICE AND THE U.S. DOLLARMONTHLY REAL SILVER PRICES ($2018) 13 SILVER PRICES WORLD SILVER SURVEY 2017 US$/oz Rupee Euro 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 MarFebJan-19DecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJan-18 Source: GFMS, Refi nitiv US$/oz US$/oz; other currencies indexed to 5th January 2016 US$/oz (02/01/2018): Bitcoin prices drop, wiping over $40 in value. (02/05/2018): Jeronme Powell is sworn in as new Federal r