杨梦月_causal_decision_making_white.pdf

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1、Causalityfor Decision MakingMengyue YangUniversity College London Email:mengyue.yang.20ucl.ac.ukWebsite:https:/ymy4323460.github.io/1Whats causal decision making Causal inference is the process of understanding the cause-and-effect relationships between variables or events.A decision-making system i

2、s an approach used to make informed choices in various contexts.2Causal decision-making system usually apply causal inference technics to make a better decision to meet the needs of the requirements of explanation,generalization or safety etc.Causality and Decision Making3 Reasoning:Understanding th

3、e factors in the system Making decision:Learning how to take actionsCausal modelAgentEnvironmentDecision making systemcontext/staterewarddecision/actionAdvantages of causal decision making Clarifying Causal Relations:Identify the key factors and avoid being misled by spurious correlations.Enhancing

4、Decision Accuracy and Effectiveness:predict theoutcomes make the wisest choices.Reducing Decision Risks:Identify potential bad effects and avoid risks of generalization.4Outline Backgrounds Intro to causality and decision-making system.Current causal decision-making method Causality in Static and Dy

5、namic system,including environment understanding,learning to intervene,counterfactual reasoning Advanced topic Challenges about causality in LLM agents5The technical details please refer to the related papersBackground:Causal Inference The Pearls Hierarchy6Correlation doesnt mean causality7Causal in

6、formation rather than commonly used association has more generalization ability in prediction task.thermometer temperatureIce cream salesCausalityCorrelation weatherThe philosophy of Causality8 Descartes ascribed cause to eternal truth.The truth of the worldThe truth of the world in our headImagine