GWEC_The Global Wind Market and Supply Chain_ Feng Zhao.pdf

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1、The Global Wind Market and The Global Wind Market and Challenges in the Supply Challenges in the Supply Chain Chain 16th October,BeijingFeng Zhao,Head of Strategy ContentsContentsGlobal wind market status and outlook 20303Demand and supply benchmark-Nacelle 7Demand and supply benchmark-Key component

2、s10Demand and supply benchmark-Selected BOP13Demand and supply benchmark-Key materials 142022 was the 2022 was the thirdthird-best year for wind energy-best year for wind energy894 MW894 MW67%77.6 GW of new wind power capacity was added last year,the lowest level in the pass three years but still th

3、e third highest year in history.This brings total installed wind capacity to 906 GW,a growth of 9%compared with 2021.New wind power installations(GW),20018-2022Source:GWEC Market Intelligence,March 2023The third-best year for onshore wind despite a The third-best year for onshore wind despite a nega

4、tive growth rate of 5%negative growth rate of 5%Top 5 five markets combined made up 72%of global installations in 2022,collectively 3.1%lower than 2021,primarily due to the US lost 5%market share compared with 2021.Grid parity,auction/tenders and the PTC remained the top three market support mechani

5、sms behind onshore wind capacity added in 2022.Collectively,they account for a combined 91%market share,the same as the previous year.New global onshore wind power installations in 2022Source:GWEC Market Intelligence,March 2023China continued to lead global offshore wind development,although new ins

6、tallations in 2022 were 70%lower than in 2021 a record year driven by the end of the feed-in tariff.With 2.5 GW offshore wind capacity across six countries connected to the grid in 2022,Europe accounted for the majority of the remaining new capacity.In 2022 Europe relinquished its title as the world

7、s largest offshore wind Market to APAC.Nevertheless,Europe continues to lead the way with floating wind.New global offshore wind power installations in 2022Source:GWEC Market Intelligence,March 2023The second highest year in offshore wind history The second highest year in offshore wind history desp

8、ite a negative growth rate of 58%despite a negative growth rate of 58%(China)(China)Annual and total wind installations need to triple by Annual and total wind installations need to triple by 2030 in order to achieving 1.52030 in order to achieving 1.5C pathway C pathway 894 MW894 MW67%The wind indu

9、stry reached the 1st TW milestone this summer with a second TW likely to be passed before the end of 2030 provided the anticipated growth materialises in the three key wind markets of China,Europe and the US.Total wind power capacity additions for 2023-2030 have been increased by 13%in GWECs Q1 2023

10、 Outlook compared with previous year.However,the revised rate of wind growth is s still not rapid enough to enable the world to achieve its Paris Agreement targets or net zero by 2050.Source:GWEC Market Intelligence;IEA Net Zero by 2050 Roadmap(2021).Nacelle assembly capacity in China is three times

11、 Nacelle assembly capacity in China is three times larger than Europelarger than EuropeWith a turbine nacelle production capacity of 98 GW per year,China is the worlds dominant turbine nacelle manufacturing hub,followed by Europe,US,India and LatAm-primarily Brazil.The wind industry appears to have

12、enough nacelle assembly capacity to meet the projected global demand up to 2027.However,the picture is different if separate benchmarks are applied for onshore and offshore wind,especially at a regional level.Global turbine nacelle assembly capcity in 2023Global turbine nacelle assembly capcity in 2

13、023Note:Wind turbine nacelle assembly capacity doesnt represent actual wind turbine production in 2023Source:GWEC Market Intelligence;March 2023Onshore nacelle bottlenecks will occur if theOnshore nacelle bottlenecks will occur if thefree flow of the supply chain is interrupted free flow of the supp

14、ly chain is interrupted Offshore nacelle bottlenecks expected in every Offshore nacelle bottlenecks expected in every region of the world except China region of the world except China Sufficient component production at present,but Sufficient component production at present,but collaboration is neede

15、d to meet regional demandcollaboration is needed to meet regional demandBased on our latest supply chain update,no bottlenecks are expected in 20232024 for key components such as blades and generators,but further investment in both components is needed to accommodate growth after 2024.Following rece

16、nt investment,gearbox manufacturing capacity is well positioned to support the expected growth up to 2027.A concentrated supply chain and regionalised sourcing strategies,however,look certain to create bottlenecks.High voltage cable production-a critical constraint High voltage cable production-a cr

17、itical constraint for offshore windfor offshore windThe rapid growth of offshore wind technologies has ignited a surge in demand for high-voltage cables.Demand for these cables from offshore wind is expected to quadruple from 12.3k core-km in 2022 to 53.2k in 2030.The demand and supply benchmark ind

18、icates that a supply chain constraint for offshore wind high voltage cable will occur in Europe and North America,although enough capacity is avaliable for APAC region.Targeted installations are outpacing the realities of the highly technical and costly startup of new high voltage cable production i

19、n both Europe and the US.Global collaboration is key to address the expected bottleneck,particularly for HVDC.Note:Demand includes all cables for offshore windfarm applications-export,array,and platform-to-platform.DATA:CRU,August 2023DATA:CRU,GWEC,August 2023MV+HV and EHV subsea cable manufacturing

20、 capacity,000 core-km/y,2023Floating wind could be off to a rough start with Floating wind could be off to a rough start with bottlenecks expected for foundationsbottlenecks expected for foundationsThe current global manufacturing capacity for floating is 221 unit/year.No bottleneck is expected unti

21、l 2030 if a free flow of global wind supply chain can be retained.However,supply chain bottlenecks are likely to take place in all the regions except China if restrictive trade policies and local content requirement come to play.Global collaboration is key to address the supply chain constraint as w

22、ell as to bring down the cost of LCOE for floating wind.Europe 71%(56 unit)Middle East 5%(4 unit)APAC ex.China 24%(19 unit)North America 0%79 unit142 unitChina 100%(142 unit)Floating wind foundation demand and supply benchmark,2023-2030Floating wind foundation demand and supply benchmark,2023-20302

23、0 2 3 e2 0 2 4 e2 0 2 5 e2 0 2 6 e2 0 2 7 e2 0 2 8 e2 0 2 9 e2 0 3 0 eE u ro p e1178262950130182C h in a20254040000AP AC e xc lu d in g C h in a0801132577577N o rth Am e ric a0110001232LAT AM00000000G lo b a l 13163477101107217291Demand vs supply analysis,2023-2030(unit)Floating foundation capacity

24、Floating foundation capacity excl.China,2023excl.China,2023Floating foundation capacity Floating foundation capacity in China,2023in China,2023New investment in WTIVs and regional cooperation New investment in WTIVs and regional cooperation much needed to ensure delivery much needed to ensure delive

25、ry Number of jack-up offshore wind tubine installaton vessels in 2023Number of jack-up offshore wind tubine installaton vessels in 2023China and Europe operate the majority of jack-up vessels used for offshore wind turbine installation.Globally,no global shortage of WTIVs is expected up until 2026.L

26、ooking at the supply chain situation for the 2027-2030,however,a likely shortage in Europe towards the end of this decade.This means offshore wind markets in APAC that are heavily relying on European vessels need to seek a solution for the future.Regional cooperation for vessels in APAC is vital to

27、ensure offshore wind deployment wont get delayed,especially in new markets such as India,Philippines,Australia and New Zealand.In the US,where only one tailor-made Jones Act compliant WTIV is currently under construction(with eight months delay expected),plans for new WTIVs will have to be immediate

28、ly to avoid bottlenecks.Note:Average WTIV wind turbine installation efficiency is 0.5 GW/v/year in 2021 according to H-BLIX.Assuming 23 WITVs will be avaliable in Europe by 2025 to installation 14+MW wind turbine,the expected installation capacity is 11.5GW/year.4913205651124Key materials used for w

29、ind are centrally sauced,Key materials used for wind are centrally sauced,decentralization will be challenging decentralization will be challenging 2.7m tonChina 82%Europe 12%Rare earth materialsRare earth materialsCastings Castings Steel plate Steel plate LATAM 2%APAC ex.China 4%Total wind casting

30、annual output,2t,2023Total wind casting annual output,2t,2023Note:8%of the global reversing mill capacity is used for wind in 20235 key takeaways from GWEC5 key takeaways from GWEC s global wind supply s global wind supply chain study chain study Annual installations need to triple by 2030 to achiev

31、e 1.5C pathway,but the current policy and economical landscape faced by the sector does not enable adequate levels of investment to achieve this.By 2026 there may be supply chain bottlenecks in every region of the world except China.China remains key to global wind supply chain.Restrictive trade and

32、 investment policies and moves to decouple rapidly from Chinas supply chain will increase cost and may risk delaying the global energy transition.Size does matter,but a non-stop race in wind turbine size is not healthy or sustainable,especially for the offshore wind supply chain.12345It is necessary

33、 to create more diverse supply chains in order to ensure resilience and to make sure that the benefits of energy transition are spread more widely.However,clear investment and price signals need to be provided in order for this to happen and the creation of new industrial centres will require some time.THANK YOUTHANK YOUDoes anyone have any questions?F+45 3113 Follow us on social media Global Wind Energy Council