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欧睿国际:2026年年中全球经济展望报告(英文版)(25页).pdf

上传人: 小*** 编号:1274416 2026-07-03 25页 7.11MB

1、1 2026 Euromonitor InternationalThis extract is based on our in-depth Q2 2026 report.Not to be distributed without permission.Data from 2026 onwards are forecasts and were updated 4 May 2026.2026 global economic updateGlobal growth is losing momentum as rising costs erode demand and squeeze margins,

2、with Euromonitor Internationals new forecasts marking a downgrade.The Strait of Hormuz blockage severed a critical energy corridor and is the defining shock of 2026.Price pressures and ongoing uncertainty are expected to constrain near-term activity,dampen investment and slow consumption.MID-YEAR OU

3、TLOOKAiste Bijune Global Insight Manager Economies David Zhang Asia Pacific Insight Manager Services2 2026 Euromonitor InternationalEvery organisation needs evidence to make strategic decisions with confidence.Thats why we used Passport,our award-winning market research knowledge hub,to examine the

4、global economic outlook.Our data analytics and expert insights answer your biggest questions.Read on for economic forecasts,global trade dynamics and risk scenarios.The data behind this report3 2026 Euromonitor InternationalGDP growth projections.Inflation forecasts.Iran war:Global macroeconomic sce

5、narios.US.Eurozone.UK.China.ASEAN.About Euromonitor International.Appendix.2.9%global real GDP growth projection for 2026Source:Euromonitor International Macro Model,Passport Economy,Finance and Trade4.6%global inflation forecast for 2026Source:Euromonitor International Macro Model,Passport Economy,

6、Finance and Trade479121416182023244 2026 Euromonitor InternationalGDP growth projectionsReal GDP growth Source:Euromonitor International Macro Model,Passport Economy,Finance and Trade Note:data from 2026 onwards are forecasts,updated 4 May 2026;regional aggregates calculated using purchasing power p

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1. **全球经济增长放缓**:2026年全球实际GDP增长预期下调至2.9%(2025年为3.4%),主要受伊朗战争及霍尔木兹海峡封锁冲击,能源供应中断削弱需求与利润。 2. **通胀压力上升**:2026年全球通胀率预计达4.6%(2025年为4.1%),能源价格传导至运输、制造和食品成本,挤压企业利润。 3. **区域分化明显**: - **发达经济体**:增长1.5%,美国(1.8%)相对韧性,欧元区(1%)、英国(0.9%)受能源进口拖累最严重。 - **发展中经济体**:增长3.8%,中国(4.3%)、印度(6.1%)增速放缓,东盟(4.1%)仍具韧性。 4. **风险情景分析**: - **快速缓和**:若冲突Q2结束,2027年GDP反弹至3.2%,通胀降至2.6%。 - **长期封锁**:2027年GDP跌至2.6%,通胀持续高位(4.2%)。 - **升级冲击**:2026年GDP降至2.7%,通胀飙升至5.2%。
**全球经济放缓?** **伊朗战争影响?** **通胀如何应对?**
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