我们能否预测自身的命运？利用SAT技术描绘CTI行业的未来图景.pdf

1、Can we forecast our own fate?Can we forecast our own fate?Mapping the future of the CTI industry with SATsMapping the future of the CTI industry with SATsJ o s h D a r b y M a c L e l l a nJ o s h D a r b y M a c L e l l a nSource:Source:bbc.co.ukSeptember 3,1939 September 3,1939 September 1,1939Sep

2、tember 1,1939Source:4 days 4 days|1.5m people 1.5m people|3.1%3.1%Source:CambridgeuniversitypressForecasts are powerful when acted onContext cardNow:Staff Threat Intel Advisor Feedly Staff Threat Intel Advisor Feedly Before:CTI analyst in finance&tech CTI analyst in finance&tech“Fun”facts“Fun”facts

3、Source:mayflowerAgenda0101Research question0202SATs used 0303SATs walkthrough0404Emerging scenario0505So what?Research question:What does the future of the USUS CTI industry look like over the next 3 years3 years,and how can wewe prepare for it?What SATs were used?Source:goodreadsKey Drivers Generat

4、ionKey Drivers GenerationIdentify factors that could affect the CTI industryAnalyst 1:Josh pre-researchAnalyst 3:ClaudeAnalyst 2:Josh post-researchSource:danielmiesslerAIAIGeopoliticsGeopoliticsComplianceComplianceMultiple Scenario GenerationMultiple Scenario GenerationMap possible futures of the CT

5、I industryAI:AI replaces CTI analysts AI replaces CTI analysts AI fails AI fails Geopolitics:Great powers conflict Great powers conflict Widespread global cooperationWidespread global cooperationCompliance:Compliance necessitates CTI Compliance necessitates CTI Regulations relaxationRegulations rela

6、xationSource:goodreadsMultiple Scenarios Generation 12 scenariosIndicators Generation,Validation,Indicators Generation,Validation,and Evaluationand EvaluationTrack the events signaling which scenario is more likely to occurIndicators evaluation in spreadsheet