上传人:Kell****reet
编号:118853
2023-03-17
PDF
36页
1.57MB
《Quinlan & Associates:2022国际K-12教育形势分析报告-借鉴亚洲K-12教育国际化热潮的经验(英文版)(36页).pdf》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《Quinlan & Associates:2022国际K-12教育形势分析报告-借鉴亚洲K-12教育国际化热潮的经验(英文版)(36页).pdf(36页珍藏版)》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。
1、LESSONS FROM THE EASTCAPITALISING ON THE INTERNATIONAL K-12 EDUCATION BOOM IN ASIA VIA ONSHORINGOctober 20222TABLE OF CONTENTSSECTIONTITLEPAGESECTION 1THE PLUNGE IN INTERNATIONAL K-12 EDUCATION3SECTION 2ONSHORING TO THE RESCUE13SECTION 3KEY CONSIDERATIONS22SECTION 4HOW WE CAN HELP323SECTION 1THE PLU
2、NGE IN INTERNATIONALK-12 EDUCATION4191.4203.3210.1203.6202.0148.9151.90501001502002502015201620172018201920202021INTERNATIONAL K-12 STUDENTS OVERALL TRENDDisrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic,the number of K-12 international students studying in Anglophone countries has plunged dramaticallySource:US Im
3、migration and Customs Enforcement,Government of Canada,Australian Department of Education,Independent Schools Council,Quinlan&Associates analysisNumber of International K-12 Students Offshore#Thousand,2015-21,Selected CountriesUS(#thousands)95.098.195.084.878.459.149.6Canada(#thousands)49.355.862.16
4、4.169.545.163.8U.K.(#thousands)27.627.328.528.929.424.725.1Australia(#thousands)19.522.124.525.824.720.013.4Total(#thousands)191.4203.3210.0203.6202.0148.9151.9POST-COVIDPRE-COVID5INTERNATIONAL K-12 STUDENTS BY ORIGIN(1/2)USAIn particular,the number of K-12 international students studying in the US
5、from the top 3 countries of origin(note:all in Asia)slumped by 37-53%from 2019-21Source:US Immigration and Customs Enforcement,Quinlan&Associates analysisTop 3 Origins of International K-12 Students%,2019,USA47.0%8.6%7.5%36.9%47.0%.of international K-12 students in US were from Mainland China in 201
6、9OthersVietnamSouth KoreaMainland China36.817.40102030402019202153%CHINA6.74.3024682019202137%SOUTH KOREA5.93.302462019202143%VIETNAMDecrease in International K-12 Students#Thousand,2019 vs.2021,USA6INTERNATIONAL K-12 STUDENTS BY ORIGIN(2/2)AUSTRALIAwith a 29-49%slide for international K-12 students
7、 travelling to Australia over the same periodSource:Australian Department of Education,Skills and Employment,Quinlan&Associates analysisTop 3 Origins of International K-12 Students%,2019,Australia47.3%16.4%5.3%31.0%47.3%.of international K-12 students in Australia were from Mainland China in 2019Oth
8、ersSouth KoreaVietnamMainland China11.76.0048122019202149%CHINA4.12.9012342019202129%VIETNAM1.30.900.511.52019202133%SOUTH KOREADecrease in International K-12 Students#Thousand,2019 vs.2021,Australia7DECLINE DRIVERSIn addition to the COVID-19 pandemic,several macro factors,competitive pressures,and
9、emerging trends have driven declining international student numbersSource:Quinlan&Associates analysisDecline in International StudentsUnderlying CausesCOVID-19 PANDEMICInternational schools shifted online,as visas,flights,and classes got cancelled,crippling mobilityGEOPOLITICAL TURBULENCEThe US-Chin
10、a trade war,amongst other geopolitical tensions raised concernsabout student safetyDOMESTIC ALTERNATIVESA number of local rivals are cropping up,offering a reasonable domestic alternativeRISE OF E-LEARNINGCatalysed by the COVID-19 pandemic,more and more institutions are adopting eLearning for distan
11、ce educationLOCAL WORK OPPORTUNITIESRobust economic development in source markets is resulting in lucrative homegrown employment optionsSOARING TUITIONThe cost of pursuing anoverseas education hasshot-up,making itunaffordable for manyDEFERRED MIGRATIONMore students are opting todefer their shift abr
12、oad,instead choosing to studylocally for a longer periodEMERGINGTRENDSMACROFACTORSCOMPETITIVEPRESSURES8RESULTING STUDENT SHORTFALLGiven these factors,we estimate the number of international K-12 students studying in Anglophone countries to continue to fall,with a shortfall of 94,000 enrolments by 20
13、24Source:US Immigration and Customs Enforcement,Government of Canada,Australian Department of Education,Independent Schools Council,Quinlan&Associates estimatesNumber of International K-12 Students#Thousand,2015-24E1912032102042021491521431391405860758694191203210204202206212218225234050100150200250
14、20152016201720182019202020212022E2023E2024EActual/Estimate(i.e.post-COVID historical and forecast)Shortfall(i.e.based on historical growth trajectory)28%28%40%38%34%9CONSEQUENT FEE SHORTFALLAs a result of this international student shortfall,K-12 schools in Anglophone countries are expected to lose
15、out on over USD 2 billion p.a.in tuition revenues by 2024Source:Independent Schools Council,Boarding School Review,EduCanada,Study Australia,Quinlan&Associates estimatesTotal Annual Fee LossUSD Billion,2020-24E1.20 1.49 1.78 1.96 2.06 0.00.51.01.52.02.5202020212022E2023E2024E10SCHOOLS ADOPT A DIGITA
16、L-LED RESPONSEMany schools have turned to technology-led measures to address revenue shortfalls,with some senior schools even moving completely onlineSource:Quinlan&Associates analysisRemote LearningMeasures UndertakenONLINE MATERIALTeaching material is made accessible on an online platform to allow
17、 students to go through it independently,in their own timeLIVE STREAMINGClasses are taught live,online,through video streaming platforms and applicationsRECORDED LECTURESLectures are first recorded by teachers and then made accessible through digital meansHYBRID CLASSESA mix of both physical and dig
18、ital attendance is adopted,especially for hands-on technical arenas,such as laboratory workFLEXIBLE SCHEDULINGAdditional classes or changes to class times are organised,to accommodate student residing in different time zonesPARENTAL INVOLVEMENTParents are encouraged to get involved and guide student
19、s through the teaching material providedFLEXIBLESCHEDULINGLIVESTREAMINGONLINEMATERIALPARENTAL INVOLVEMENTRECORDEDLECTURESHYBRID CLASSES11KEY DRAWBACKS OF DIGITAL/REMOTE LEARNINGHowever,there are a number of overarching challenges with digital delivery for K-12 students(especially international stude
20、nts),hampering the educational experienceSource:Quinlan&Associates analysisRemote LearningIssuesREMOTE LEARNING MEASUREEase of Digital AccessibilityQuality of ExperienceProgress MonitoringSocial ImmersionTime Zone DifferencesParental SupportONLINE MATERIAL -LIVE STREAMING-RECORDED LECTURES -HYBRID C
21、LASSES -FLEXIBLE SCHEDULING-PARENTAL INVOLVEMENT-NON-TECHNICAL ISSUESTECHNICAL ISSUES UnfavourableVery Unfavourable-Not ApplicableLive streaming requires high speed internet,which may be problematic for students in developing economies,while flexible scheduling creates challenges around study monito
22、ring Online classes reduce students social immersion,while live classes are unable to cater to all time zones.Additional inputs from parents are also required,especially for younger students12PARENT/STUDENT PREFERENCES FOR IN-PERSON LEARNINGThese challenges are echoed by both parents(who have expres
23、sed major concerns with online/remote learning)and students(who still strongly prefer in-person delivery)Source:Pew Research Center Surveys,Quinlan&Associates analysis31%52%58%59%60%63%0%20%40%60%Too much time unsupervisedLess exerciseFewer extracurricular activitiesChildrens mental well-beingLess s
24、ocial connection/friendshipToo much screen timeRemote LearningParents Concerns,2020Learning ModelsStudents Preferences,202265%18%9%8%65%.of students aged 13-17 say that they prefer classes to be run completely in person after the COVID-19 pandemic is over Completely In PersonCompletely OnlineHybridN
25、ot Sure13SECTION 2ONSHORING TOTHE RESCUE14BENEFITS OF ONSHORINGWe believe onshoring has the potential to address many of the challenges facing Anglophone schools suffering from declining international student enrolmentsSource:Quinlan&Associates analysisOnshoringBenefitsENHANCED DELIVERYOnshoring eli
26、minates the technical and non-technical issues facing remote learning,while also enabling a blend of local and overseas nuancesPOTENTIAL LAUNCHPADInternational schools are viewed as a stepping stone by students seeking to pursue overseas education further down the lineUPPER-CRUST REPUTEAlready havin
27、g a sought-after brand name and robust academic track record makes it easy to attract students/parentsGEOGRAPHIC PROXIMITYOnshore schools are significantly closer to home,providing flexible boarding options for students,such as weekly boarding,etc.ROBUST SAFETYMany parents have become concerned abou
28、t student safety in the Anglosphere,which becomes less of an issueCOST ADVANTAGETuition as well as non-tuition-related expenses can be significantly cheaper,making it more economically accessibleAcademic BenefitNon-Academic Benefit15INTERNATIONAL EDUCATION DRIVERS IN ASIAAsia,in particular,is a key
29、hot spot for K-12 international education,given a variety of academic and non-academic factors sought by both students and parents in the regionSource:The Standard,Times Higher Education,Inside Higher Ed,Monitor,Opus,Quinlan&Associates analysisInternational Education DriversK-12 Students in AsiaACAD
30、EMICIMPORTANCEEducation StyleAsian parents and students want an alternative approach to rote education,with less focus on academic results and more towards holistic personal developmentAcademic ReputationInternational schools,especially those with strong brand recognition,have a proven academic reco
31、rd and are viewed as a high probability route to future successLinguistic ExposureEnglish has traditionally been the primary language globally,encouraging Asian students to go to international schools to enhance their language skills123NON-ACADEMICIMPORTANCEFuture ProspectsGlobal top universities ha
32、ve exhibited a preference for students from international schools,valuing their international experience and holistic mindsetCultural ExperienceStudying alongside other students from diverse backgrounds enhances cultural awareness,which helps to develop students capabilities to become global citizen
33、sGrowth of Middle-ClassAs the middle class has grown rapidly in Asia,parents become more price insensitive in terms of education,hence are able to send students to international schools123Not ImportantVery Important161.31 1.71 1.89 2.27 0.00.51.01.52.02.52015201920222026ESTUDENTS IN INTERNATIONAL SC
34、HOOLS IN ASIAIn fact,the population of K-12 students who are enrolled in international schools in Asia has grown strongly in recent years,including during COVID-19Source:ISC Research,Quinlan&Associates estimatesNumber of K-12 Students in International Schools#Million,2015-26E,AsiaSouth Asia(#thousan
35、ds)466615659784East Asia(#thousands)452601648776South East Asia(#thousands)394493585713Total(#Million)1.311.711.892.27CAGR:3.5%CAGR:6.8%POST-COVID SHORT-TERMPRE-COVIDGROWTHPOST-COVIDLONG-TERMCAGR:4.7%17REVENUE OPPORTUNITY IN ASIAThis is translating to vast revenue opportunities for international sch
36、ools operating in Asia,who are set to generate nearly USD 20 billion in annual tuition fees by 2026Source:ISC Research,Quinlan&Associates estimates16.9 17.7 18.6 19.7 0.05.010.015.020.02023E2024E2025E2026EAnnual Fee Revenue PotentialUSD Billion,2023E-26E,AsiaCAGR:5.2%POST-COVIDLONG-TERMSouth Asia(US
37、D Billion)2.22.22.42.5East Asia(USD Billion)10.911.311.912.7South East Asia(USD Billion)3.94.14.34.5Total(USD Billion)16.917.718.619.718OPPORTUNITY IN ASIA SUMMARYThe market for international schools in Asia is currently 19x(by no.of students)and 8x(by tuition revenues)that of Asian students studyin
38、g at international schools offshoreNote:1Include Anglophone countries onlySource:ISC Research,Department of Education,Independent Schools Council,Quinlan&Associates estimatesNumber of Students#Million,2022E2.116.4024681012141618Fee Revenue PotentialUSD Billion,2022E0.11.90.00.40.81.21.62.019x8xStude
39、nts enrolled in International Schools in AsiaAsian Students enrolled in International Schools Offshore1from students enrolled in International Schools in Asiafrom Asian Students enrolled in International Schools Offshore119CONSEQUENT GROWING MIGRATION TO ONSHORERecognising the market potential in As
40、ia,many brand-name schools,especially from the U.K.,have been setting up operations in the region,generating vast tuition revenues*Capacity includes all campuses in AsiaSource:school websites,IIAS,Quinlan&Associates analysisOnshore PresenceSelected ExamplesTuition ValueSelect ExamplesK-12 Education
41、Institution(Selected Brands)Capacity*(Student#)Tuition Value(At Capacity)HarrowSchool14,000USD 530mDulwichCollege10,000USD 240mNord Anglia Education25,000USD 350mKings College Wimbledon5,000USD 35mAppiBeijingSeoulTaiwanShanghaiChengduSingaporeBangkokHo Chi Minh CityHong KongShenzhenCompetitionHighMe
42、diumLowKuala LumpurBangaloreHyderabad20CASE STUDY(1/2)AISL HARROW OVERVIEWInternational branches of Harrow School across Asia are operated by Asia International School Limited(“AISL”)in the form of co-educational through schools*International General Certificate of Secondary EducationSource:AISL Har
43、row,Quinlan&Associates analysisAISL HarrowInternational Campus LocationsTypes of Educational InstitutionsCovering Students Aged 18 Months to 18 Years13,000+Students1,300+EducatorsAppiBeijingShanghaiBangkokHong KongShenzhenChongqingHaikouZhuhaiNanning28.5%Above U.K.Average44.3%Above U.K.Average92%Rec
44、eived an A*or A Grade74%Received an A*or A GradeIGCSE2022A-Level2022AISL Harrow Little Lions Early Years CentreInternationally-oriented bilingual Early Years centres for students aged between 2-6 years,following the Early Years Foundation Stage(“EYFS”)Curriculum of England,blended with local cultura
45、l nuancesAISL Harrow Innovation Leadership AcademiesInternationally-oriented bilingual day and boarding schools for students aged between 1.5-18 years,first following the local compulsory curriculum,and then IGCSE*and A-Levels to pick fromAISL Harrow International SchoolsBritish day and boarding int
46、ernational schools for students aged between 1.5-18 years,delivering the U.K.curriculum(i.e.IGCSE and A-Level)21CASE STUDY(2/2)AISL HARROW MARKET OPPORTUNITYBy establishing the onshore presence in Asia,Harrow has been able to capture a vast student base(17x Harrow U.K.)and sizeable revenues(12x Harr
47、ow U.K.)Source:AISL Harrow,Harrow School,Quinlan&Associates estimatesHarrow School Number of StudentsU.K.vs.AsiaHarrow School Fee Revenue U.K.vs.AsiaU.K.ASIANo.of Students(#)83013,7801,000 StudentsThe number of students enrolled in Harrows Asian operations is 17x that of its U.K.schoolU.K.ASIAAverag
48、e Fees(USD p.a.per student)53,70038,300Total Fee Revenue(USD million p.a.)44.6527.3USD 50 millionFee revenues generated by Harrows Asian operations are 12x that of its U.K.schoolSECTION 3KEYCONSIDERATIONS23OVERVIEWThe onshoring journey requires schools to consider a variety of factors concerning the
甲子光年:智能制造行业MES产品研究:建设智能工厂实现智造推动生产过程管理数字化(38页).pdf
毕马威(KPMG):2022年全球IT内部审计展望报告(英文版)(26页).pdf
毕马威(KPMG)& 全球半导体联盟(GSA):2022年全球半导体产业展望报告(英文版)(23页).pdf
Sponsor United:2021-22年北美职业冰球联赛(NHL)营销与合作年度报告(英文版)(30页).pdf
毕马威(KPMG):2022年全球和印度软件测试行业发展趋势报告(英文版)(10页).pdf
Crunchbase:女性创业者融资情况十年回顾(英文版)(19页).pdf
Dealroom:2022年欧洲保险业状况报告(英文版)(55页).pdf
Atradius:2022年经济展望报告(英文版)(10页).pdf
毕马威(KPMG):全球工程研发(ER&D)行业分析报告(英文版)(76页).pdf
Digital Commerce 360:2022年美国电子零售商1000强报告(英文版)(44页.pdf
毕马威(KPMG):德里旅游业潜力分析报告(英文版)(24页).pdf
Dealroom:2022年上半年阿姆斯特丹科技生态系统分析报告(英文版)(17页).pdf
蜜雪冰城招股说明书-连锁茶饮第一股(724页).pdf
线上健身第一股-keep招股说明书(463页).pdf
麦肯锡:2023中国消费者报告:韧性时代(33页).pdf
罗振宇2023“时间的朋友”跨年演讲完整PDF.pdf
QuestMobile:2022新中产人群洞察报告(37页).pdf
QuestMobile:2022年中国短视频直播电商发展洞察报告(30页).pdf
町芒:2022现制茶饮行业研究报告(47页).pdf
小红书:2023年度生活趋势报告(34页).pdf
QuestMobile:2021新中产人群洞察报告(30页).pdf
锐仕方达&薪智:2022年薪酬白皮书(105页).pdf