IRi：2023年通货膨胀对消费者行为的影响分析报告（中译版）（24页）.pdf

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1、 2023 Information Resources Inc.(IRI).Confidential and proprietary.1February 2023Impact of Inflation on Consumer Behavior2The U.S.economy has proven resilient but were not out of the woods yet.Unemployment remains low and consumer expenditures remain strong,with most spending growth going to service

2、s rather than goods.CPG dollar sales remain strong,even as unit sales decline.Shoppers are shying away from discretionary purchases.At-home food spend remains strong,with center store sales up 11.1%and perimeter dollar sales up 6.3%in Q4 2022.However,consumption levels continue to soften as consumer

3、s deal with broad-based inflation.Value channels are performing well as shoppers try to manage budgets.2023 OutlookSales of premium products,which drove growth during the height of the pandemic,are easing,while sales of private label products are increasing.Still,pockets of premiumization exist,espe

4、cially in sports drinks,canned/bottled fruit and non-chocolate candy.Promotions for food and beverage products,especially in perimeter departments,are increasing.Look for promos to increase in 2023 as competition heats up.Food and beverage dollar sales will moderate in 2023 but will still be stronge

5、r than the historical baseline,even as volume sales remain muted.SummaryImpact of Inflation on Consumer BehaviorAt-Home Food Inflation in December 2022+13.2%vs.Year Ago(YA)3While Economic Conditions Remain More Positive Than Expected,Economists Generally Continue to Expect Weakening AheadKey U.S.Mac

6、roeconomic IndicatorsSources:St Louis Fed economic data,various government sources BEA,BLS,University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.Forecasts based on WSJ analyst consensus survey.IRI Client Engagement.3.71.81.92.20.1-0.40.00.6Q1 22Q4 22 FQ2 22Q1 23 FQ3 22Q2 23 FQ3 23 FQ4 23 FAnalyst consensu