世界银行：全球经济中期前景展望（英）（76页）.pdf

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1、A World Bank Group Flagship Report Global Economic Prospects JUNE 2020 Analytical Chapters EXCERPT Chapter 4 i Adding Fuel to the Fire: Cheap Oil in the Pandemic .181 Introduction . 183 Drivers of the oil price plunge . 185 Comparison with previous periods of disruptions . 187 Implications of oil pr

2、ice plunges for the global economy . 188 Past oil price plunges . 188 The 2014-16 oil price plunge . 190 The 2020 oil price plunge . 192 Box 4.1 Reforms after the 2014-16 oil price plunge . 193 Conclusions . 198 Annex 4.1 Methodology: Decomposition of oil price movements . 199 Annex 4.2 Oil price pl

3、unges since 1970 . 199 Annex 4.3 Methodology: Impact of oil price plunges on output . 200 References . 201 Table of Contents Chapter 3 Lasting Scars of the COVID-19 Pandemic . 131 Introduction . 133 Spread of the pandemic . 134 The economics of the pandemic: Shocks and spillovers. 136 Initial impact

4、: Economic activity, financial and commodity markets . 137 Global activity and trade . 137 Global financial conditions . 138 Commodity markets. 138 Short-term growth impact . 139 Spillovers . 140 Vulnerabilities: Magnifying the short-term impact. 141 Long-term growth effects . 144 Implications for p

5、otential output . 145 Implications for productivity . 149 Unique nature of the pandemic: Magnifying the long-term impact . 150 Conclusion . 158 Box 3.1 How do deep recessions affect potential output in EMDEs? . 146 Box 3.2 How do disasters affect productivity? . 151 Annex 3.1 The macroeconomic effec

6、ts of pandemics and epidemics: A literature review. 160 Annex 3.2 Bayesian vector autoregression model . 170 Annex 3.3 EMDE vulnerability index. 170 Annex 3.4 Long-term implications of recessions: Data and methodology . 171 References. 172 Executive Summary: Chapters 3 and 4 .ii Lasting Scars of the