牛津经济研究院：COVID-19对美国旅游经济的影响（英文版）（14页）.pdf

《牛津经济研究院：COVID-19对美国旅游经济的影响（英文版）（14页）.pdf》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《牛津经济研究院：COVID-19对美国旅游经济的影响（英文版）（14页）.pdf（14页珍藏版）》请在三个皮匠报告上搜索。

1、The Impact of COVID-19 on the United States Travel Economy April 15, 2020 2020 Analysis Key Findings Travel Industry Losses A decline of 45% for the entire year is expected. This includes an 81% drop in revenue over the next two months and continued losses over the rest of the year reaching $519 bil

2、lion. GDP Losses Travel industry losses will result in a cumulative GDP impact of $651 billion in 2020. We project the US economy to enter a protracted recession based on the expected downturn in travel alone. The recession is likely to last at least two quarters with the lowest point in the second

3、quarter of 2020. Tax Losses A decline of $80 billion in taxes will be realized as a result of travel declines in 2020. Employment Losses The US economy is projected to lose 8.0 million jobs by the end of April as a result of travel declines in 2020. The unemployment rate of 4.4% in March will rise s

4、ubstantially in the coming months. Travel-related employment losses alone will push the unemployment rate up to 8.4% by the end of April. “FLATTENING THE CURVE” OF THE TRAVEL DOWNTURN A scenario model was run to assess the potential gains of a more tempered downturn beginning in June. The mitigated

5、downturn scenario assumes a variety of efforts to lessen the severity of declines in travel beginning in June. These include opening of travel businesses on a region-by-region basis, enhanced traveler safety measures, and a robust array of marketing campaigns to encourage travel among low risk US re

6、sidents. These mitigating efforts hold the potential to “flatten the curve” of losses, resulting in a cumulative decline of $401 billion instead of $519 billion and a net gain of $117 billion. By mitigating travel losses in the second half of 2020, the US economy could gain close to $150 billion in

7、GDP and 1.3 million jobs by the end of the year (relative to the baseline scenario). | Oxford Economics Overview Oxford Economics, in coordination with its Tourism Economics subsidiary company, modeled the expected downturns in the US travel industry in 2020 as a result of Coronavirus. We then model

8、ed the economic impacts of these travel industry losses in terms of GDP, unemployment, and taxes. Travel industry losses will far exceed that of any other sector. This is 9 times the impact of 9/11 | Oxford Economics A $519 billion decline in travel spending in the US this year will translate into a

9、 total economic loss of $1.2 trillion in economic output. This is more than nine times the impact of 9/11 on travel sector revenue. In the second quarter, travel- related jobs will fall by 6.9 million and result in a total employment loss of 8.0 million jobs in the US (including indirect impacts). A

10、 decline of $80 billion in taxes will be realized as a result of travel declines in 2020. This equates to a 45% decline in travel economic impacts for the entire year. Direct travel industry Total impact Lost spending ($ billions)-$519-$1,181 Air transportation-$97 Other Transportation-$78 Lodging-$

11、112 Recreation a dedicated data analysis team; global modeling tools, and a range of partner institutions in Europe, the US and in the United Nations Project Link. Oxford Economics has offices in New York, Philadelphia, London, Oxford, Dubai, and Singapore. Oxford Economics is a key adviser to corpo

12、rate, financial and government decision-makers and thought leaders. Our worldwide client base now comprises over 1,000 international organizations, including leading multinational companies and financial institutions; key government bodies and trade associations; and top universities, consultancies,

13、 and think tanks. Tourism Economics is an Oxford Economics subsidiary with vast experience in providing actionable and credible analysis of tourism. Tourism Economics works with national and local tourism offices throughout North America, Europe, Asia, the Middle East and Africa as well as some of the largest tourism service companies in the world. Hundreds of destinations and companies have trusted our staff to help them make better marketing, investment, and policy decisions based on credible fact-based, quantitative analysis.