银行业经济格局：并购市场、2026 年预测及其他.pdf

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1、Update on Current Conditions in the Banking EnvironmentBill HickeyPiper SandlerJoseph Moeller Keefe,Bruyette&Woods,A Stifel CompanyNovember 7th,2025Table of Contents2State of the Banking SectorBank Stock Price Performance and ValuationsOverview of the Current M&A Environment New York Banking Landsca

2、pe Capital Markets Update Outlook for 2026 and Beyond State of the Banking Sector3State of the Banking Sector 4Transactions of all sizes are being announced;Unlike the past 15 years,the largest banks are now participatingAnticipated rate cuts to continue to benefit short-term liabilities;Long-term a

3、ssets could come under pressureThe banking landscape should meaningfully change over the next two to three yearsBank M&A is active as regulators take a softer stance on industry consolidationThe industry is benefitting from margin expansion and deposit-cost reliefAfter two years of EPS declines for

4、the industry,2025,2026,and 2027 EPS estimates are expected to grow by 13%,11%,and 8%,respectivelyLong-Term Structural Forces are Impacting the Evolution of the Industry Size,scale and industry relevance driving long-term decision making1Preferences towardstechnology use by businesses and consumers2C

5、ustomer loyalty and a shift towardslarge money-centers and non-bank platforms3Ability to create differentiatedbusiness model in an un-differentiatedindustry4Acquisition of talentand succession planning5Changing demographics across geographies and age cohorts65 Banking returns on capital and assets a

6、re almost back above the 40-year medianBanking Industry Returns Have Recovered6 Return on Assets(%)Return on Equity(%)Note:Data reflects quarterly averages for all FDIC insured institutions.Source:FDIC.Note:Reflects median of all banks under KBW Research coverage.Source:KBW Research.Improving Fundam