中创新航-快速增长的领先动力电池供应商首予“买入”评级-221104（25页）.pdf

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1、 See the last page for disclaimer Page 中中外外运运输输 Equity Research Equity Research Report Company Report 股股票票研研究究 公公司司报报告告 证证券券研研究究报报告告 新能源行业新能源行业 New Energy Sector 中创新航中创新航 CALB(03931 HK)Company Report:CALB(03931 HK)中文版 Jun Zhu 朱俊杰(852)2509 7592 公司报告：中创新航(03931 HK)Chinese version .hk 4 November 2022 A

2、 Fast-Growing Leading EV Battery Supplier,Initiate With Buy 快速增长的领先动力电池供应商，首予“买入”评级 We initiate our coverage on CALB with a TP of HK$38.00 and an investment rating of Buy.Our EPS estimates from 2022-2024 are RMB0.336/RMB1.014/RMB1.960.The TP corresponds to 2.8x/1.0 x/0.6x 2022-2024 P/S or 37.2x/17.1

3、/10.0 x 2022-2024 EV/EBITDA.Global NEV demand will continue to rise in the next few years bringing demand for EV batteries.Global NEV sales volume is set grow at 2021-2026 CAGR of 29.8%reaching 22,872 thousand units in 2026.NEV sales volume in China is expected to climb to 9,606.9 thousand units in

4、2026,implying 2021-2026 CAGR of 23.6%.The NEV penetration rate in China is expected to rise from 15.5%in 2021 to 37.7%in 2026,up 22.2 ppt between 2021-2026.Consistent with strong global NEV market growth,global EV battery newly installed capacity is to grow at2021-2026 CAGR of 36.4%reaching 1,386.7

5、GWh in 2026.The EV battery newly installed capacity in China is to riseat2021-2026 CAGR of 37.6%to 762.0 GWh in 2026.The EV battery sales volume of CALB is to grow at CAGR of 131.8%from 2021-2024 and its global market share is on track to gradually expand.Following the commission of new projects,CAL

6、Bs effective battery capacity will increase from 11.9 GWh in 2021 to 35.0 GWh/90.0 GWh/165.0 GWh in 2022-2024.Further,CALB targets to have 500 GWh in battery capacity in place by 2025.The EV battery sales volume of CALB is projected to surge from 9.3 GWh in 2021 to 24.3 GWh/67.3 GWh/116.0GWhin 2022-