1、Tariff frenzy or empty threats ahead?Quarterly Global Outlook 2Q 2025Executive SummaryTariff frenzy or empty threats ahead?GDP Growth TrajectoryFX,Interest Rate&Commodities ForecastsKey Events In 2Q 2025FX StrategyWill the year-to-date weakness in USD last?Rates StrategyThe narrative pendulum swings

2、 back towards growth slowdown concerns Commodities StrategySafe haven demand for gold intensifies with physical bullion short squeezeFX TechnicalsCommodities TechnicalsGlossaryGroup Research Team0413141516232950565860CONTENTNew ZealandUnited StatesUnited KingdomOutlook by EconomiesClick on the econo

3、my to view insightEurozoneAustraliaJapanChinaVietnamSouth KoreaHong KongTaiwanPhilippinesSingaporeIndiaIndonesiaMalaysiaThailand .sg/researchGlobalEcoMktResearchUOBBloomberg:NH UOB Information as of 07 March 2025Research InsightsExplore moreContact usUOB Global Economics&Markets ResearchQuarterly Gl

4、obal Outlook 2Q20254Tariff frenzy or empty threats ahead?Tariffs Economic weapon of choice for Trumps America First policiesIn his second(non-consecutive)term as US President,Donald Trump has acted with a great sense of urgency,bringing to bear the most significant US tariff increases not seen in de

5、cades within less than two months in office.After imposing a blanket 10%tariff on all Chinese imports to US in early Feb,it was followed up with an additional 10%on 4 Mar,drawing a measured retaliatory response from China.And after a brief one-month reprieve,Trump imposed new 25%tariffs on imports f

6、rom Mexico and Canada on 4 Mar,which Canada responded with 25%retaliatory levy on CAD 155bn of US goods,while Mexican President said the country will respond on 9 Mar(Sun).The focus is no longer just on China but also other trade partners including US allies.Attention is also on product specific tar