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1、To raise or not to raiseHowEuropecanusetariffsaspartofanindustrialstrategyMarch2024SummaryThe sales of battery electric cars in Europe have been growing quickly,with 2mlncarssoldacrossEurope in 2023 alone.But given Chinas edge in battery technology and some feet dragging byEuropean legacy carmakers,

2、more and more of those electric cars are imported from China.TheEuropean Commission launched an anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese EVs.With thepreliminary ruling expected soon,T&EspaperislookingattheEVimportsintoEuropeandwhataneffectiveresponseonbothEVsandbatteriesmightbe.This paper is part of

3、our work on industrial and trade policy.Europes goal should be todecarbonise as fastaspossiblebuttodosoinawaythatsafeguardsessentialeconomic,socialandsecurity interests.Decarbonisation in the EU shouldnotmeandeindustrialisation,andtradepolicyhasakeyroletoplay.19.5%of all electric carssoldacrosstheEU

4、lastyear,or300,000units,werebuiltinChina.InFranceand Spain close to every third BEV sold in 2023 was made in China.More than half of those comefrom Western carmakers:28%of all China made EVs were imported by Tesla,with RenaultsDaciaaddingafurther20%.ButtheChinesehomegrownbrandsarequicklycatchingup:f

5、rom0.4%oftheEV market in 2019 to 7.9%in 2023.T&EprojectsthelikesofBYD,MGandotherscouldreach20%oftheBEVmarketby2027.A briefingby1Figure:ShareoftheEUBEVmarketimportedfromChinaThis shows the challenge Europe is facing.Raising the tariffs to at least 25%(from 10%today)would match the tariffthe US origin

6、ally imposed.Based on the currentaveragevehicleprices,itisexpected to make medium cars(both sedans andSUVs)importedfromChinamoreexpensivethanEU equivalents,while compact SUVsandlargercarswillremainslightlycheaper.Itwouldalsoraisebetween 3-6 bln in additional annual revenue,mostofitfortheEUgeneralbud