走出疫情系列：消费疫后复苏买什么？-220915（19页）.pdf

1、 1/19 东吴证东吴证券（香港）券（香港）请务必请务必阅读正文之后的免责声阅读正文之后的免责声明部分明部分 Equity Research Strategy Research In-depth Research Strategy In-depth Research 20220829 What to buy if consumption recovers in post-pandemic period?Post-pandemic recovery series 2 Viewpoint The recurring outbreak of pandemic in China leads to co

2、ntinuous postponement of widely expected consumption recovery.Although the downgrade of domestic consumption growth seems inevitable in mid-to-long term,we believe that investment opportunities still exist as some consumption sectors will get out of troubles as pandemic prevention policies gradually

3、 loosen.In this report,we rank consumption sectors by recovery resilience post-pandemic,taking in consideration of current recovery conditions and supply side shrinkage.How is the recovery of the consumption industries under the pandemic shock?1)The decline of residents income growth and confidence

4、for future may drag down the mid-to-long term growth of consumption.However,some consumption industries are very likely to rebound in the short-term due to demand recovery in post-pandemic period and supply shrinkage during pandemic.2)The recovery conditions of consumption sectors:recovery condition

5、s of travel and offline entertainment are the worst among all.The tourism,aviation,hotel and offline cinema sectors only recover to 44%,47.5%,70.6%and 57.6%of pre-pandemic levels respectively.3)Most of the listed companies earnings in travel and offline entertainment industries have not recovered to

6、 pre-pandemic levels,which are consistent with the whole industry.The rank of consumption sectors by recovery resilience post-pandemic:tourism and hotel food service,cinema and hospital aviation garment,aesthetic medicine and duty-free consumption.1)Under the recurring pandemic shock,small and mediu