汇丰HSBC:中国生物科技行业研究:PD-(L)1双特异性抗体竞争格局与胜出者分析-251124(25页).pdf

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汇丰HSBC:中国生物科技行业研究:PD-(L)1双特异性抗体竞争格局与胜出者分析-251124(25页).pdf

1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited View HSBC Qianhai Securities at:https:/ Equity Research Report Fierce compet

2、ition more global players have accelerated PD(L)1 bsAb clinical development with strong execution Golden 2026:Large-sample POC/phase III results are key to determining PD(L)1 bsAbs commercial outlook Maintain Buy on Innovent and Akeso with lower TPs of HKD120(from HKD125)and HKD169(from HKD207)PD(L)

3、1 bsAb has been a major re-rating factor in 2025,with huge commercial value,but faces intense competition.We forecast PD(L)1-targeted assets to reach over USD100bn by 2035 from USD53bn in 2024(source:company data,pharmcube).Several global players have recently accelerated clinical development for th

4、eir PD(L)1 bsAb:1)SMMT has started phase III trials for first-line(1L)colorectal cancer(CRC)and plans to release HARMONi-3 progression-free survival(PFS)data in 1L non-small cell lung cancer(NSCLC)squamous cell carcinoma(sq)/non-squamous carcinoma(nsq)cohort in 2H26e/1H27e.2)Pfizer announced seven t

5、rials in the near term,including three phase III trials for 1L CRC,NSCLC and extensive-stage SCLC;and another 10+novel combination trials in 2026e.3)BioNTech has five global phase III trials ongoing,and started anti-body drug conjugate(ADC)combo trials in 2024.4)Takeda will start phase III trials fo

6、r IBI363 in 1L and 2L NSCLC and CRC in 2026e(source:company data,pharmcube).We believe global MNCs have an advantage over smaller biotechs or biopharma in cash,clinical execution,and sales networks.Based on clinical position we expect 1)Summit to lead in NSCLC,but its first-mover advantage to shrink

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