构建实现尾迹规避的科学技术路线图.pdf

1、Klima consulting-Grgoire DannetEUROCONTROL Showcase SummitBuilding a Building a scientificscientific and and technologicaltechnological roadmap roadmap for for enablingenabling contrail contrail avoidanceavoidanceAviation2WhoWho are are wewe?Former scientists from Climaviation/SU-IPSL,co-founders of

2、 Klima consulting,young start-up aiming to provide services to reduce industrysclimate impactsMandated by T&E to write a report defining a wayforward on the science and technology of contrail avoidance1.Assess uncertainties that matter for contrail avoidance2.Identify knowledge gaps3.Make recommenda

3、tions for future R&DHow do we go from science to action?AviationAviation accounts for 2-3%of CO2emissions worldwide but its overall contribution to global warming(*)is around 4-5%Contrails are the largest single contributor to aviations climate impact For a given flight,contrails exert a large radia

4、tive impact for a short period whereas CO2exert a small radiative impact for a very long period.Contrail avoidance represents a relatively quick and easy mitigation solution to implement:A minority of the flights is responsible for a majority of the warming due to contrails*as measured by radiative

5、forcing(RF)3The wellThe well-known climate impacts of contrailsknown climate impacts of contrailsAviation4Potential of contrail mitigationPotential of contrail mitigationA 50%reduction in contrails(at the global scale)would decrease the additional warming to be expected by 2050 by 6%(i.e.0.03C out o

6、f about 0.5C).Potential reduction in additional warming in 2050:0.030.03 C COSCAR aviation,Audrey Lecouffe(Climaviation/IPSL)Assumptions:Aviation grow as in Scenario SSP3-7.0Global warming does not stabilize below 2C.AviationClimate adjustments5Contrail formation&climate impactContrail formation&cli