2050年航空愿景：实现气候中和增长的潜力.pdf

1、Aviation Vision 2050:The Potential for Climate Neutral Growth through Non-CO2ControlSola ZhengInternational Council on Clean Transportation(ICCT)18 October 2025Net-zero CO2 goal:how it started and how it is going2Agreed by industry and codified by ICAO in 2022Consensus on the critical role of SAF,ex

2、pected to be responsible for about 50%of CO2 reductions Fuel efficiency(airframe+operations)30%of the CO2 reductions However,progress towards the net-zero goal has been slow.Rate of SAF adoption,as well as other mitigation levers,is closer to ICCTs Action Scenario,with minimal emission reduction com

3、pared to 2019 baseline in 2050.The growing importance of non-CO2 3Greenhouse gases(GHGs):CO2,CH4,N2O Lifetimes of tens to thousands of years Impact driven by accumulation in the atmosphereShort-lived climate pollutants(SLCP):Contrails,NOxnvPM,water vapor,and sulfate aerosolsLifetimes of hours to day

4、sImpact driven by continuing pulses of emissionsResearch questionHow can cuts to short-lived climate pollutants from global commercial aviation contribute to the Paris Agreement?4MethodsHigh-level Design6Aviations contribution to global temperature changeSimplified climate model(FaIR)2023-2050 emiss

5、ions(in mass)and contrail effective radiative forcing(ERF)Projection of Aviation Climate Effects(PACE)model2023 emissions inventoryTrajectory-Based 2023 Inventory7ADS-B Flight TrajectoriesFleet and engine databaseMeteorologyAircraft performance(BADA 3)FFM2 and T4/T2 methodContrail(CoCiP)Data inputsM

6、odelingProcessingFlight schedulePayloadValidation2023 Contrail Inventory8Mitigation Scenarios9Scenario NameDefinitionHistorical TrendsCounterfactualCurrent CommitmentsAnnounced policies and industry goalsGHG ForwardMaximum GHG reduction onlySLCP ForwardMaximum mitigation of NOx,nvPM,and contrailsFul