景顺投资（Invesco）：2025年第四季度全球资产配置全景展望报告（英文版）（29页）.pdf

1、September 2025 For professional/institutional/qualified/accredited investors only 1 Global Asset Allocation 2025 Q4 Quarterly update from Invescos Global Market Strategy Office 14 September 2025 For professional/institutional/qualified/accredited investors only.September 2025 For professional/instit

2、utional/qualified/accredited investors only 2 The Big Picture Global Asset Allocation 2025 Q4 On the positive side,we think the global economy could accelerate(despite a slowing US economy)and that the Fed is about to embark on rapid easing.However,we also believe that inflation is no longer trendin

3、g down,that some central banks are near the end of their easing cycles and that geopolitical risks remain high.After recent strong gains on some assets,we reduce risk within our Model Asset Allocation by cutting high yield to Underweight and raising cash to Neutral.Nevertheless,we maintain a slight

4、preference for riskier assets and regions.Model asset allocation In our view:Commodities should benefit as the global economy improves.We stay at the Maximum.Bank loans offer an attractive risk-reward trade-off.We stay at the Maximum.Real estate(REITS)have rebounded but may benefit as rates fall.We

5、remain Overweight.Government bond yield direction will be mixed.We remain Neutral.Corporate investment grade(IG)has a similar profile to government bonds.We remain at Neutral.Corporate high yield(HY)spreads have tightened further.We reduce to Underweight.Cash brings diversification that could be imp

6、ortant as other assets become expensive.We boost to Neutral.Equities have rebounded and we remain Underweight(Underweight the US,Overweight non-US).Gold may be helped by a weakening dollar and geopolitics,but is expensive.We remain at Zero.Regionally,we favour Europe and EM.US dollar is likely to we