瑞银UBS：2026-2027年全球经济与市场展望报告-251117（英文版）（70页）.pdf

1、ab17 November 2025Global ResearchPowered byUBS Evidence LabYESGlobal Economics&StrategyGlobal Economics&Markets Outlook 2026-2027This report has been prepared by UBS AG London Branch.ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES,including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by

2、 UBS,begin on page 67.EconomicsGlobalArend KapteynE+44-20-7567 0531Pierre LafourcadeE+1-212-713 4543Global Economics&Strategy 17 November 2025ab 2Summary forecastsGlobal Economics&Strategy 17 November 2025ab 3Summary forecasts vs consensusSource:Haver,CEIC,National Statistics,UBS forecasts,Bloomberg

3、 consensus median forecasts as on 30 October 2025 .1/calendar year average.*For CPI,excludes Venezuela.*Forecasts for India relate to fiscal years 2027 and 2028,with FY ending March.Due to non availability of Bloomberg consensus for FY28,we use UBS forecasts.Czechia,Hungary and Poland FX pair is ver

4、sus EUR.*G8 aggregate forecast for consensus.Fed policy rates are upper bound target rate.ECB effective policy rate(the deposit rate).3M HIBOR.It is the benchmark interest rate used by the Hong Kong central bank.1-year deposit rate.For FX,blended weighted average of several available FX rates.#CPI f

5、or Sweden refers to CPIF(Consumer Price Index with a Fixed interest rate).Real GDP 1/CPI(%avg)Policy rate(end period)FX vs USD(end period)UBS-current forecastsUBS vs ConsensusUBS-current forecastsUBS vs ConsensusUBS-current forecastsUBS vs ConsensusUBS-current forecastsUBS vs Consensus26F27F26F27F26

6、F27F26F27F26F27F26F27F26F27F26F27FUS1.71.9-0.1-0.13.02.40.1-0.13.253.000.0-0.3-Japan0.71.00.00.21.62.2-0.20.21.251.500.30.515215212.017.0Canada1.81.80.6-0.12.12.00.10.02.252.250.0-0.51.401.400.050.06UK1.11.4-0.1-0.12.22.0-0.30.03.253.250.00.01.301.30-0.07-0.05Switzerland1.31.30.1-0.20.60.90.00.10.00