伯恩斯坦：全球供应链研究：供应链动态监测：全球贸易增长的分化路径-251120（英文版）（62页）.pdf

1、20 November 2025Global LogisticsSupply Chain Pulse Check:Bifurcating trade growthAlex Irving,CFA+44 20 7676 David Vernon+1 917 344 Antoine Madre+33 1 58 98 74 Justine Weiss+1 917 344 Approaching year-end,a bifurcation in trade continues.Broad ocean market volumes arefine(+5%globally)while the Transp

2、acific Eastbound remained soft(-8%,vs-12%inAugust).Air cargo revenuesturned negative YoY in October,with modestly positive volumesfailing to offset rate pressure.Ocean rates rebounded slightly from their October lows,ascarriers attempted to impose general rate increases into contract negotiations,ho

3、wever wedoubt these can stick against still-high capacity growth.Meanwhile,liner ordering activitycontinuesto outstrip even high delivery numbers,despite threats from rising trade barriers.Incremental moves by CMA CGM towards further routings through the Red Sea between Asiaand Europe,and Houthi sug

4、gestions of an end to attacks,increase risks to rates into 2026.Access our downloadable database here.Robust volumes,US the weak spot.Global trade volumes increased by 3.6%YoY inAugust,led by a 7%rise in emerging market exports while the US declined(-3.6%).On themost recent forward-looking indicator

5、s,October PMIs in China fell(-0.6pt to 50.6)as didthe US(-0.4pt to 48.7)while Europe rose(+0.2pt to 50.0).Ocean:volumes+5%in September,rates snapping a losing streak but for howlong?Volumes increased+5%In September,up from+3%in August,with YTD growth+4%.This was driven by strong Asia-to-Europe flows

6、,offsetting an 8%decline on theTranspacific Eastbound.Rates have bounced off October lows,as carriers try to pushincreases into contracting season.Yet amid supply builds and a rising risk of Red Seatransits on Asia-Europe(given increased activity from CMA CGM),we expect furtherpressure ahead.Gemini