【国泰期货】Morning Insight: November 21, 2025-251121（8页）.pdf

1、金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 Morning Insight:November 21,2025 Linlin Gao Certification：Z0002332 Yu Chen Wu(Contact)Certification：F03133175 Main Body Commodity Market Insight：Industrial Silicon&Polysilicon:Sentiment has cooled,and the market is undergoing a downward correction.Yesterday,both industrial

2、 silicon and polysilicon prices pulled back from their highs,reflecting a cooling of speculative sentiment.From a supply-demand perspective,there is no sudden positive driver for industrial silicon.The fundamentals are gradually improving,and the continuous outflow of warehouse warrants in recent we

3、eks has pushed the price range upward,but expectations of weak supply and demand on both sides cannot support a sustained breakout to the upside.Selling from hedgers on the upper end of the market has also increased.Going forward,attention should be paid to the scale of production cuts by silicone p

4、lants starting in December and their impact on industrial silicons supply and demand.Polysilicon fundamentals are also weak on both supply and demand.Downstream segments have been gradually lowering prices due to weak demand,and with high inventories,it is difficult for fundamentals to improve.Focus

5、 next on the timing of the state reserve platform implementation and the actual timeline for cutting production.Short-term volatility is expanding,and investors are advised to hold positions cautiously.Synthetic Rubber:In the short term,butadiene rubber(BR)futures prices are supported within a chopp

6、y range.There are two main reasons.First,as the NRBR spread widened to a high level,spot trading activity in the November November 2 21 1,2025,2025 F Financial Derivativesinancial Derivatives GUOTAI JUNAN FUTURES 金融衍生品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 overall synthetic rubber industry chain has seen a phased im