1、Europe Equity Research31 October 2025J P M O R G A NEuropean ChocolateIndustry volumes spook,competitive pressures creep in-reiterate Lindt UWEuropean Food Producers and Household&Personal Care ProductsEdward G Hockin AC(44-20)7742-J.P.Morgan Securities plcCeline Pannuti,CFA AC(44-20)7134-J.P.Morgan

2、 Securities plcAnkur Gupta(91-22)6157-J.P.Morgan India Private LimitedPrem Sirisuttinunt(44-20)3493-J.P.Morgan Securities plcUS Food Producers&RetailersThomas Palmer,CFA AC(1-212)622-J.P.Morgan Securities LLCSpecialist Sales contact details:Olivia Petronilho-Specialist Sales-European Consumer(44-20)

3、3493-Chocolate confectionery volumes continue to be pressured after price increases through H1,confirming a trend of-3-4%this year.Industry volume declines in Q3 seem similar to Q2.What is new since Q2,however,seems to be an increased pressure from elasticity and consumer focus on affordability in E

4、urope-with Nestle and Mondelez taking some corrective actions to price points,whilst some private competitors have raised prices by less this year.Amongst our chocolate names,we are cautious on Lindt(UW),we expect soft market consumption combined with growing price gaps vs competition to weigh on vo

5、lume through H2 and into 2026E(leading to softer LFL 26E at+5.5%),whilst their PE(38x 26E)premium to peers is close to historical highs.Barry Callebaut(N)is a more immediate beneficiary of lower cocoa prices,whilst we expect their volumes can benefit from normalizing customer ordering patterns even

6、as end consumption may still be soft.We rate Nestle Neutral on still low visibility on FY26E earnings algorithm and as we seek to hear more on how the company can rejuvenate its categories to reconnect with 4%+MT growth.Whilst Thomas Palmer rates Mondelez OW as some transitory volume headwinds shoul