1、 itif.org Decoupling Risks:How Semiconductor Export Controls Could Harm US Chipmakers and Innovation TRELYSA LONG|NOVEMBER 2025 U.S.export controls on semiconductor sales to China reduce U.S.chipmakers revenues,lower their R&D investment capabilities,and reduce industry employment.As such,U.S.policy

2、makers should keep semiconductor export controls to a minimum.KEY TAKEAWAYS ITIFs economic model estimates that U.S.firms could lose about$77 billion in semiconductor industry sales in the initial year after a hypothetical,one-time full decoupling with China.South Korean firms could gain about$21 bi

3、llion in sales,European Union firms$15 billion,Taiwanese firms$14 billion,Japanese firms$12 billion,mainland Chinese firms$9 billion,and other nations firms$5 billion of U.S.firms losses.U.S.industry R&D investments in semiconductors could decrease by about 24 percent,or$14 billion,compared with the

4、 status quo after a one-time full decoupling with China.The U.S.semiconductor industry could support over 80,000 fewer U.S.industry jobs and almost 500,000 fewer downstream jobs in the face of a full decoupling between the United States and China.INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION FOUNDATION|NOVEMBER

5、 2025 PAGE 2 CONTENTS Key Takeaways.1 Introduction.3 Modeling the Economic Impact of Semiconductor Export Controls.4 Impact of Export Controls on U.S.Semiconductor Firms.6 Semiconductor Market in 2024.6 Impact on U.S.Semiconductor Firms Revenue.7 Impact on U.S.Semiconductor Firms R&D Spending.9 Impa

6、ct on U.S.Jobs.9 Medium-Term Foregone Growth and Resulting Market.10 Long-Term Foregone Growth and Resulting Market.14 Impact on ICT Industries.17 Conclusion.19 Appendix:Methodology.20 U.S.Semiconductor Firms Revenue Loss From Various Export Control/Decoupling Scenarios in the Base Year.20 U.S.Semic