汇丰HSBC:中国必需消费品行业研究:3季度总结;行业洗牌持续;静待需求改善-25114(英文版)(37页).pdf

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汇丰HSBC:中国必需消费品行业研究:3季度总结;行业洗牌持续;静待需求改善-25114(英文版)(37页).pdf

1、 Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix,and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.Issuer of report:HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited View HSBC Qianhai Securities at:https:/ Equity Research Report Mixed perform

2、ances across sub-sectors in 3Q25,with food outperforming alcoholic beverage Similar trend in 4Q25 and a recovery possible for 2026 We like Yili,Weilong,CRB and Fen Wine all rated Buy;we adjust estimates and target prices across our coverage Performance divergence intensified in 3Q25.In 3Q25,the F&B

3、sector witnessed an 8%y-o-y revenue decline,moderating from low single-digit revenue growth in 1H(see Exhibit 4),with soft drinks(+14%in 3Q25 versus+18%in 2Q25)sustaining the strong growth momentum.Given the demand weakness,the baijiu sector saw its revenue and net profit declines widen further from

4、 2Q25 a key drag on the broader F&B sector.Beer names delivered in-line earnings growth with no exciting top lines but continued benefiting from cost tailwinds,similar with the dairy and condiment segments.Despite overall flat growth of the snacks sector(+2%in 3Q25 versus+5%in 2Q25),the snack names

5、have shown divergent results,with Konjac products continuous outperformance and rapid development of snack chain operators.After the 3Q25 results,Wind consensus of the F&B sector experienced across the board downward revisions to 2025-26 estimates(see Exhibit 3).4Q25e and beyond.In 4Q25e,we think ba

6、ijiu will continue the destocking process,which is,in our view,the right strategy and well-recognised by the market.The key focus will be the stabilisation of Feitians wholesale price after“Double 11”and the distributors meeting,for the 2026e growth target,at the end of the year.Beer and soft drinks

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