1、QUANT RESEARCHBalancing ActA QUANTITATIVE PERSPECTIVE ON US PRIVATE EQUITYQ4Q420252025PG PG 2 2Q4 2025 QUANTITATIVE PERSPECTIVES REPORTIntroductionResearchPitchBook Data,Inc.Nizar Tarhuni Nizar Tarhuni Executive Vice President of Research&Market IntelligenceDaniel Cook,CFA Daniel Cook,CFA Global Hea

2、d of Quantitative Research&Market IntelligenceZane Carmean,CFA,CAIA Zane Carmean,CFA,CAIA Director of Quantitative ResearchAndrew Akers,CFA Andrew Akers,CFA Lead Quantitative Research ATaylor Criswell,CFATaylor Criswell,CFA Senior Quantitative Research ANathan Schwartz,CFA Nathan Schwartz,CFA Senior

3、 Quantitative Research ACMiles Ostroff Miles Ostroff Associate Quantitative Research AMoving into the end of 2025,it seems that the US economy and markets are flashing all three colors of the traffic light at once and offering little clarity on where things may head next.Consumers and businesses rem

4、ain broadly pessimistic,and while the labor market has softened,no single indicator is raising alarm.Inflation remains above target,and tariffs continue to influence trade flows.If this all sounds negative,someone forgot to tell the markets.Volatility has fallen,equities are rallying,and credit spre

5、ads are tight.Amid these crosscurrents,private markets are thawing.After a couple of years of dismal deal and exit activity,PE is staging a comeback.Both deal and exit volumes have experienced significant upswings and moved above their long-run trends,though there remains a considerable overhang of

6、delayed transactions still waiting to close.With the economic outlook uncertain,we map out where buyout activity could land under a range of macroeconomic scenarios.To maintain the pace of dealmaking seen over the past two quarters,sustained economic growth will be required.At the same time,buyout m