1、From Servers to Rates:AI,ICT Capital,and the Natural Rate Giovanni Melina and Stefania Villa WP/25/WP/25/224 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s)and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author

2、(s)and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF,its Executive Board,or IMF management.2025 OCT*The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the International MonetaryFund or IMF policy or those of the Bank of Italy.Part of this work wa

3、s completed when Stefania Villa was visiting the IMF,whose hospitality is gratefully acknowledged.The authors thank Florence Jaumotte,Rahim Kanani,Jeff Kearns,Yosuke Kido,StefanoNeri,Anh Nguyen,Marianna Riggi,Tiziano Ropele and Giordano Zevi for useful comments and suggestions.The usual disclaimerap

4、plies.2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/224IMF Working Paper Research Department From Servers to Rates:AI,ICT Capital,and the Natural Rate Prepared by Giovanni Melina and Stefania Villa*Authorized for distribution by Florence Jaumotte October 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progres

5、s by the author(s)and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s)and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF,its Executive Board,or IMF management.ABSTRACT:This paper investigates the macroeconomic implicatio

6、ns of the rising wave of investment in information and communication technology(ICT)including AI-related hardware and softwarein the U.S.economy.The analysis uses a structural macroeconomic model that treats ICT as a distinct type of capital and explores the degree to which ICT complements or substi